Chances the Texans get the #1 seed

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

What are you talking about? Big Ben started and won 13 games as a rookie. Matt Ryan won 11.

Good question. They were saying on TV that Bradford held the most wins by a rookie QB @ 6 I thought.

I didn't double check it, but I'm sure that's what they said.

[MistaRed]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Good question. They were saying on TV that Bradford held the most wins by a rookie QB @ 6 I thought.

I didn't double check it, but I'm sure that's what they said.

Bradford had the most wins in a season for a QB drafted at number 1 overall until Luck this season.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by MistaRed

Bradford had the most wins in a season for a QB drafted at number 1 overall until Luck this season.

Ah... thanks.

That don't sound nearly as impressive.

[Allstar]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Ah... thanks.

That don't sound nearly as impressive.

Number 1 overall means they are playing for (and leading) the worst team in the league from the previous year. That's what makes the stat impressive.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by htownfan32

I concede that it's never been done before. I'd still wait one more season before drawing conclusions about Luck, though. For all we know, he could pull a Cam Newton. It might just be beginner's luck. But if he does the same stuff next season, yes, no one in their right mind will deny that Luck is a great QB and has the potential to be elite soon enough. It's a matter of time, to be honest, but I think you can understand that though it would make for competitive football in the AFCS, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if we were the sole good team in the AFCS. Having to duke it out with Luck for the next 10 years ala Pittsburgh and Baltimore (two good teams fighting for the AFC North) is something I'd rather avoid.

Luck leaves up to his name sake; he's been really lucky so far and still has 16 INTs.

Somebody pulls the REFOcus of the Colts last game and we will see that he had 3 other passes that should have been picked off (besides the 3 that he threw).

Also, I made a note in his first 3 games, there were at least 5 that should have been sure picks, but the defenders dropped the ball. And I mean those passes hit them in the numbers.

There were at least 5 others that also had chances to be intercepted that defenders either just missed or didn't time it right, things of that nature.

I didn't make note from other games, but he always have those every game.

I'm not talking about passes thrown to D-linemen who are of a clumsy specimen.
I'm talking about passes that were defended by DBs or Lbs who were in good position. Bad passes.

I predicted that he will throw at least 15 INTs this year; he has already past that mark.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by Allstar

Number 1 overall means they are playing for (and leading) the worst team in the league from the previous year. That's what makes the stat impressive.

Generally they are the worst team due to overall suckitude. The Colts were an exception. They were a team built around a QB and they lost that key piece after 11 playoff appearances in 12 years. Luck went to a better situation than most #1 overall picks.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Generally they are the worst team due to overall suckitude. The Colts were an exception. They were a team built around a QB and they lost that key piece after 11 playoff appearances in 12 years. Luck went to a better situation than most #1 overall picks.

They really revamp that offense for him.
They bring in an OC that runs pretty much the same thing he did in college.

They drafted 6 guys on offense (including him), 4 in the first 3 rounds.
Fleener is their starting TE; Ballard their starting RB.
Fleener has 22 catches so far.
Dwayne Allen is the second TE with 36 catches already.
He's also a good blocker.
Hilton has 39 catches and 5 TDs as a non-starter, slot receiver that also handle return duties.
Brazil's is another receiver that contributes.

They sign a speedster in Avery to give him another weapon downfield.

They sign a veteran Center to replace the old guy.
They sign a veteran OT in Winston Justice (who was drafted #39 overall in 2007).

The LT was second year man Castonzo (#22 overall; which is higher than where we drafted D. Brown).

Yeah; I would say he was put in a good position.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Generally they are the worst team due to overall suckitude. The Colts were an exception. They were a team built around a QB and they lost that key piece after 11 playoff appearances in 12 years. Luck went to a better situation than most #1 overall picks.

At the risk of sounding all

you'll never convince me that "Suck for Luck" wasn't their official company strategy in 2011.

Add to that Luck had the option to come out for the last non-"rookie wage scale" draft in NFL history and yet he chose not to cash in....

Yeah... something about that whole story stinks because this scenario played out way too nicely for it to have come down to chance.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

At the risk of sounding all

you'll never convince me that "Suck for Luck" wasn't their official company strategy in 2011.

Add to that Luck had the option to come out for the last non-"rookie wage scale" draft in NFL history and yet he chose not to cash in....

Yeah... something about that whole story stinks because this scenario played out way too nicely for it to have come down to chance.

A correction and a question:

Andrew Luck wasn't eligible for the last non-"rookie wage scale" draft as that occurred in 2010 (following the 2009 season) and saw Sam Bradford become that last #1 overall pick to go under the old rules. The 2009 season was Andrew Luck's second year out of HS (his first was a redshirt season), and as such, he was not the three years removed from HS that NFL policy requires.

My question (for anyone who believes this - not just you) is who decided it, who carried it out, and how did they do it? Everyone with any power, short of Irsay himself, was fired after the 2011 Colts season, and trust me - players don't care about getting the #1 overall pick at the cost of intentionally playing poorly (not to mention that's a good way to get one of Spencer Tillman's infamous roadmap/apple combos).

Did Irsay mastermind it? If so, how? Did one of the Polians or Jim Caldwell make it happen and then get double-crossed by Irsay? Exactly how do you think it happened, and with all the former Colts, Colt coaches and Colt front office folks out there, how do you think it has been kept quiet?

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by ChampionTexan

A correction and a question:

Andrew Luck wasn't eligible for the last non-"rookie wage scale" draft as that occurred in 2010 (following the 2009 season) and saw Sam Bradford become that last #1 overall pick to go under the old rules. The 2009 season was Andrew Luck's second year out of HS (his first was a redshirt season), and as such, he was not the three years removed from HS that NFL policy requires.

My question (for anyone who believes this - not just you) is who decided it, who carried it out, and how did they do it? Everyone with any power, short of Irsay himself, was fired after the 2011 Colts season, and trust me - players don't care about getting the #1 overall pick at the cost of intentionally playing poorly (not to mention that's a good way to get one of Spencer Tillman's infamous roadmap/apple combos).

Did Irsay mastermind it? If so, how? Did one of the Polians or Jim Caldwell make it happen and then get double-crossed by Irsay? Exactly how do you think it happened, and with all the former Colts, Colt coaches and Colt front office folks out there, how do you think it has been kept quiet?

You don't need to look much farther than the QB position. As someone else pointed out, the Colts' success was/is TOTALLY dependent on the quality of QB play. Their defense was not meant/built to grind the opposition into submission or even keep the game close but to take advantage of the big leads their QB-led offense was designed to provide.

In Peyton they had that QB. But they knew Peyton needed surgery and might have been gone for most or all of the season but made no move to shore up that position - just in case. They had Painter and Orlovsky as their backup and made no moves to improve the quality of the backup.

They waited until the last game of preseason - or somewhere around there - to sign a vet QB. And who did they go get? 99-year old Kerry Collins.

Seriously???

If you view that as a sound strategy on a team who was (is?) largely dependent on elite-level QB play for success then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

You don't need to look much farther than the QB position. As someone else pointed out, the Colts' success was/is TOTALLY dependent on the quality of QB play. Their defense was not meant/built to grind the opposition into submission or even keep the game close but to take advantage of the big leads their QB-led offense was designed to provide.

In Peyton they had that QB. But they knew Peyton needed surgery and might have been gone for most or all of the season but made no move to shore up that position - just in case. They had Painter and Orlovsky as their backup and made no moves to improve the quality of the backup.

They waited until the last game of preseason - or somewhere around there - to sign a vet QB. And who did they go get? 99-year old Kerry Collins.

Seriously???

So who developed and directed this strategy to intentionally have horrible backup QB's?

If you view that as a sound strategy on a team who was (is?) largely dependent on elite-level QB play for success then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

So who developed and directed this strategy to intentionally have horrible backup QB's?