2012 Playoff Picture

[brakos82]

Half of the AFC teams have been determined... will post NFC's status after Monday Night Football.

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Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Plays Monday Night

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Clinched playoff berth.
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.
- Can clinch #1 seed with HOU, TEN, WAS, and OAK wins.
Patriots (9-3)... HFA 15%... Top-2 37%... Division 100%. (next week: HOU)
- Clinched division.
Ravens (9-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 35%... Division 94%... Playoffs 99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win, or SD and DAL wins
- Can clinch division with win and SD, DAL wins
Broncos (9-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 34%... Division 100%.
- Clinched division.

Wild-Cards:

Colts (8-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 5%... Playoffs 89%.
Steelers (7-5) (2 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 70%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (7-5) (2 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 33%.

Close to elimination:

Jets (5-7) Playoffs: 4%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND win.
Bills (5-7) Playoffs: 2%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and PIT, CIN, IND wins.
Dolphins (5-7) Playoffs: 1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and PIT, CIN, IND wins.
Chargers (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss.
Titans (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss.
Browns (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss, or PIT, CIN, IND wins.

Eliminated:

Raiders (3-9)
Chiefs (2-10)
Jaguars (2-10)

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by brakos82

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Clinched playoff berth.
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.
- Can clinch #1 seed with HOU, TEN, WAS, and OAK wins.

How does a Tennessee win vs the Colts help us clinch a first round bye? We'll win the division, but that doesn't mean a bye.

[Farough]

We would end up with tie breaker over every division leader if we beat New England coming up. Which means they would all need to have one more win then Houston to jump them. Doesn't ensure they get a bye but very close to it.

[Speedy]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

How does a Tennessee win vs the Colts help us clinch a first round bye? We'll win the division, but that doesn't mean a bye.

Ravens and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams will lose guaranteeing they can't have a better record than Houston. The Texans could do no worse than the 2 seed.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Speedy

Ravens and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams will lose guaranteeing they can't have a better record than Houston. The Texans could do no worse than the 2 seed.

Or put another way, because Indianapolis still has a very small chance of winning the division, and getting a first round bye.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by ChampionTexan

Or put another way, because Indianapolis still has a very small chance of winning the division, and getting a first round bye.

If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

[Stemp]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

yes, which is why we need one more win and a loss by them to clinch the division.

[Exascor]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

They wouldn't get the BYE but yeah they'd win the division. They'd need a lot of help from the other 3 division winners to get the bye.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Exascor

They wouldn't get the BYE but yeah they'd win the division. They'd need a lot of help from the other 3 division winners to get the bye.

So that puts us back to How does a Titans win over Indy help us clinch the bye?

Originally Posted by brakos82

Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

The scenario you questioned included a Texans victory as well as the Colt loss. If that happens, the worst the Texans can do would be 12-4. But see there - you've now indirectly answered your own original question about why a Titan win over Indy would help us clinch a first round bye.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by ChampionTexan

The scenario you questioned included a Texans victory as well as the Colt loss. If that happens, the worst the Texans can do would be 12-4. But see there - you've now indirectly answered your own original question about why a Titan win over Indy would help us clinch a first round bye.

So we can lose 3 games of the next 4 and still get a bye as long as the Titans beat the Colts next week?

Interesting.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

So we can lose 3 games of the next 4 and still get a bye as long as the Titans beat the Colts next week?

Interesting.

Yes, if the one game we win is against New England, and the Broncos and the Ravens each lose at least one more game. Is it me, or are you sounding kind of skeptical about the accuracy of this?

[Exascor]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

So that puts us back to How does a Titans win over Indy help us clinch the bye?

Well...if we win @ NE and the Titans beat the Colts, The Texans are 12-1 & the Colts are 8-5. The Ravens & Broncos play each other so both can't win out and The Texans own the tiebreakers.

In that scenario:
Pats best finish 12-4
Texans worst finish 12-4
Ravens best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Broncos
Broncos best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Ravens
Colts best finish is 11-5

Edited: Texans would hold the tiebreaker over ALL the division winners and would clinch the division so they get the bye. They would still need another win or another loss by the winner of the Ravens/Broncos game to get HFA.

[Speedy]

Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.

With a Texans WIN over New England AND a Tennessee win over the Colts. I think you missed that Texans win part.

TEN beats the Colts and the Colts have 5 losses. Houston beats NE, Hou can't lose 5 games. Division title. Baltimore and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams loses and therefore would not be able to best Houston because Houston would have beaten them both.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Exascor

Well...if we win @ NE and the Titans beat the Colts, The Texans are 12-1 & the Colts are 8-5. The Ravens & Broncos play each other so both can't win out and The Texans own the tiebreakers.

In that scenario:
Pats best finish 12-4
Texans worst finish 12-4
Ravens best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Broncos
Broncos best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Ravens
Colts best finish is 11-5

Edited: Texans would hold the tiebreaker over ALL the division winners and would clinch the division so they get the bye. They would still need another win or another loss by the winner of the Ravens/Broncos game to get HFA.

Ok, thanks for being patient with me guys. I just wasn't putting it all together. Only one of the Broncos or Ravens can finish with a better record & we hold the tie breaker over the others, making us at worse the #2 seed. That's what I wasn't getting.

The Titans win over the Colts gives them 5 losses & the most we could have (if we beat the Pats) is 4.

Got it.

Thanks again.

[ObsiWan]

owww

[Speedy]

OK, doing the math, I don't think the Texans can clinch a bye next week, unless Bal or Den loses too. If Denver and the Ravens tie when they play each other, they could both finish with better records than the Texans.

Texans beat NE and Denver and Bal both win next week:

Hou 12-1
Bal 10-3
Den 10-3
NE 9-4

Week 15 - Hou loss, Den/Bal tie, NE win

Hou 12-2
Bal 10-3-1
Den 10-3-1
NE 10-4

Week 16 - Hou loss, Den, Bal, NE win

Hou 12-3
Bal 11-3-1
Den 11-3-1
NE 11-4

Week 17 - Hou loss, Den, Bal, NE win

Bal 12-3-1
Den 12-3-1
Hou 12-4
NE 12-4

So for the Texans to clinch a bye this weekend they must beat NE, Ten over Indy, and Bal or Den has to lose.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Speedy

So for the Texans to clinch a bye this weekend they must beat NE, Ten over Indy, and Bal or Den has to lose.

Almost right except to clinch this weekend, both Bal and Den have to lose (we've actually been discussing this since post #41.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by ChampionTexan

Almost right except to clinch this weekend, both Bal and Den have to lose (we've actually been discussing this since post #41.

For HFA they both have to lose. For the bye one will suffice.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

For HFA they both have to lose. For the bye one will suffice.

Yeah - I missed him saying bye and went to HFA througout. My bad.