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Old 11-29-2012   #181
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

Pete Prisco on Texans pass rush

Quote:
But after studying the past two games, and closely watching most of their other games on tape, the biggest problem with the Texans defense is a lack of pressure from their outside rushers. The Texans are 17th in pass defense. Two weeks ago, they were third. The past two weeks, they have allowed 68 points and 795 passing yards.

Wade Phillips' scheme is designed to have the 3-4 outside linebackers getting after the quarterback, and the Texans are severely lacking in that department. As a team, Houston has 30 sacks. But 14 of those have come from defensive end J.J. Watt, who just might be the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
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Old 11-29-2012   #182
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Yeah well, I have the record of defending bust after bust

I'm very used to going against "normal wisdom thinking".

Not to say we couldn't use more outside pass rush, but sacks is only one part of the equation.

I can tell you another thing. The broadcast view often lacks information both about pressure and coverage. And they always go hand in hand. If you can't see one facet (sometimes viewers don't have neither.)

When you don't have enough data, it's quite easy to come to the wrong conclusion.

Just like I just differ from the Fid.
I know he exaggerated about the 5 secs; nonetheless, his assumption is still incorrect even when cutting the time by half.
I never said anyone was a bust. But Kubiak and Phillips have talked about not getting enough pressure from the OLB spots. I guess they don't have the wisdom and stats 76 does.
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Old 11-29-2012   #183
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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I never said anyone was a bust. But Kubiak and Phillips have talked about not getting enough pressure from the OLB spots. I guess they don't have the wisdom and stats 76 does.
And I've already admit that much in my posts, that we do lack pressure from the edges.

My "excuses" for them are: better quarterback play than the ones the faced last year, the monster named Watt who occasionally steal one from his mates, poor coverage on occasions, and maybe something else I don't remember at the moment.
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Old 11-29-2012   #184
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think if we'd have got more sacks, hurries, & hits on those inconsequential passes, he'd have been in a totally different frame of mind & maybe he would have rushed it a little, not been as accurate & maybe the big plays wouldn't have happened.

But we did.

If we didn't miss tackles and/or execute our coverage, many of those big plays wouldn't have happened.

The Jags game was quite out of character for our secondary and LB.
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Old 11-29-2012   #185
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

To me it seems all QBs are getting the ball out quicker, and less time to get pressure. Thats what i'm seeing
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Old 11-29-2012   #186
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post

I think the problem only appeared in the last 3 games. Before that, even though we weren't getting the sacks, I think we were getting the pressure. The hits, hurries, & what not. I don't know that it showed up in the actual stats, but there was no denying we were bothering QBs.

But it's been three games... Bears, Jags, & Lions that our pass rush has been absent. Bears, we wrote it off due to field conditions. Jags, they got caught napping. Lions, a good QB. Are we being honest with ourselves?
Agree with these 3 games.
However, look at it this way.

The Bears were rated number one in QB pressure (we were second) when the two teams met.
We ended up with 4 QBHs (I think these are Hurries - to be explained later)
They ended up with 1 sack , and 3 QBHs.
Pretty much in line with the ranking; both teams were bothered by the condition on the field.
(Watt had one QBH, easily his worst game of the season.
...

Against the Jags, like I mentioned, we had 2 sacks, 10 QBHs, 4 passes batted down.
Watt had (1,3,1); rest of team (1,7,3).
16 out of 39 plays (35 passes, 2 sacks & 2 scrambles).
41%

The Jags had 2, 6, 0
8 out of 57 plays (55 passes, 2 sacks)
14%

We were clearly the dominant defense.
....

I don't remember how high in the ranking the Lions offense was before the game, but surely they were ranked high in the passing department.

3 sacks, 7 QBHs, 3 PDs
Watt 3, 5, 2
13 out of 66 plays (61 passes, 3 sacks, 2 scrambles)
19.7%

The Lions had 2,6,0
8 out 52 plays (48 passes, 2 scrambles, 2 sacks.)
15.4%

We still had better pressure on the QB.
With a healthy JJo, I'm sure the numbers would change.
And don't forget that of the 31 completions by Stafford, 21 were to the TEs, RBs, and slot receiver.

CJ ended up with 8 catches for 140 yards (only 3 for 37 in the second half & OT.)
All other targets combined for 9 in the first half and 12 in the second half & OT.)

KJ allowed 2 for 19.
On the third one, we were in some kind of 4 deep zone, with KJ dropping straight back while CJ ran a slant.

Watt's second sack was due to Barwin (first) and Manning (second) on a blitz, forcing Stafford up the middle.

Watt's third sack was due to Barwin (first) beating his man to force Stafford up the pocket again. Stafford then had to avoid Smith (who alsmost had the sack) before he ran into Watt.

If Stafford had stepped up quicker on the first sack, it would have been Barwin instead of Watt who get the sack.
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Old 11-29-2012   #187
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
To me it seems all QBs are getting the ball out quicker, and less time to get pressure. Thats what i'm seeing
Agree!
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Old 11-29-2012   #188
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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
To me it seems all QBs are getting the ball out quicker, and less time to get pressure. Thats what i'm seeing
That's happening at times, yes.

Thing is, we are 11 games in. There have been opportunities.

Seems like the only times our Olb's have been a factor in the pass rush is when they come in unblocked or when the qb starts to move out of the pocket.

Watt said they have to step up their pass rush. Kubiak said they need to step up their pass rush. I think Rick smith said something along those lines earlier this evening.

The pass rush has got to get better. Period. Qb's shouldn't have to hit the end of their drop and pat the ball a few times. That's why you need multiple threats rushing and good db play. To make qb's feel uneasy. Jumpy.

Qb's that fear the rush don't sit in the pocket and comfortably pick you apart. They make bad decisions. They don't see the field as well. Too worried about getting hit.

We need someone else besides watt. We have to make qb's believe that if they don't get rid of the ball they are definitely going to have someone on their ass....and I mean he's coming. Everytime you drop back that mofo has a bead on you. Would be nice if we had two other guys like that besides watt, but I'll settle for just one for now.

Merci or Braman need to be that guy.

My money is in Braman, but it needs to be one of them. Don't really care who.
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Old 11-29-2012   #189
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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I heard a stat, either during the Jags game or the Lions game, that we lead the league by a wide margin in getting the other team off the field on third downs. That number, whatever it was, changed over the last two weeks.
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Comp. % 1st
Yards per attempt 6th
QB rating 7th
Sacks 5th - T

I haven't been as critical as the "everyone" that all see our pass rush sucks. I think the OLB's are setting the edges of the pocket well and getting some hurries and hits but aren't getting the sacks. Smith has been disruptive. But what, are gnomes causing opposing QB's to have a miserable 53.7 comp. % on the season?

Oh and yeah examining sack numbers alone is faulty in looking at just one or two games and including hurries and hits is important but over the course of the season you don't find many high sack teams who don't also have significant hurries and hits.
Opponent third down conversion - still ranked number 1 at 28.57%
SF in second @ 32.19%; Bears in third @ 32.41%

If we add fourth down conversion percentage, the margin will increase as we were even better than both those teams by a larger margin.
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Old 11-29-2012   #190
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Just thought about something....

I think wade knows barwin isn't getting it done pass rush wise.

I think we'll see some pass rush situations where merci and Braman are rushing from the end positions with watt and smith in the middle.
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Old 11-29-2012   #191
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
Just thought about something....

I think wade knows barwin isn't getting it done pass rush wise.

I think we'll see some pass rush situations where merci and Braman are rushing from the end positions with watt and smith in the middle.
This is going to happen because of a natural rotation among the three. The question, is how often.

I think you're right. Wade doesn't have his head in the sand & we'll see the Braman/Merci combo more often than the Merci/Barwin or Barwin/Braman combo.

I don't know what the numbers say. They may not have changed much from yesterday. But my eyes tell me the Falcons pass rush whupped Drew Brees 6 ways from Sunday.
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Old 11-29-2012   #192
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
This is going to happen because of a natural rotation among the three. The question, is how often.

I think you're right. Wade doesn't have his head in the sand & we'll see the Braman/Merci combo more often than the Merci/Barwin or Barwin/Braman combo.

I don't know what the numbers say. They may not have changed much from yesterday. But my eyes tell me the Falcons pass rush whupped Drew Brees 6 ways from Sunday.
All numbers are included.

BTW, the way Wade said it; it's doubtful we see much of Braman on defense this week. Wade said that he's not in the rotation. I guess it means he may see some spot duties, maybe not.
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Old 11-29-2012   #193
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

Oops, sorry.
Numbers from the Falcons-Saints games are not included.

However, Football Outsiders had the Falcons as the worst 10-1 team they have ever tracked through the years - since 1991.
(before the Saints game, of course).
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Old 11-30-2012   #194
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Oops, sorry.
Numbers from the Falcons-Saints games are not included.

However, Football Outsiders had the Falcons as the worst 10-1 team they have ever tracked through the years - since 1991.
(before the Saints game, of course).
Regardless what the numbers said, the Falcons got after Drew Brees.
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Old 11-30-2012   #195
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Regardless what the numbers said, the Falcons got after Drew Brees.
That's the thing...

The numbers will eventually fall into place if you are consistently beating your man.

Watts drawing a steady flow of double teams and he still gets his numbers.

And the other thing is qb's have looked far too comfortable against us. Even if there are plays where you are a second late, they need to feel your breath on their neck..no homo...

They need to see you whipping the o linmen in front of them. They need to feel like hurried...rushed.

They can sit back there and see watt getting doubled and feel like...'ok...the only real threat is accounted for'...now let me calmly find the open man..

You want them frantic in the pocket. You want them to rush their throws. You want them throwing from awkward positions because they're trying to hurry up and get rid of it.

I'm looking at the games...we haven't been making qb's feel like that.

They calmly sit back there and find guys.
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Old 11-30-2012   #196
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

I understand that we can use more outside pass rush.
But it's far from a disastrous situation as some thinks.

If somebody has a premium account at PFF, they may (or may not) have an update on total team QB disruption.

I am 90 something percent sure that we're the leader in this category just like last year.

Obviously, a lot of that is due to Watt.
But it's still a team game.
As I have described those two sacks.

Without Barwin and Antonio, they don't exist.

But now we need Mercilus to step up; he had yet to show as much did last year.
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Old 11-30-2012   #197
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

Unfortunately, we're more middle of the pack. With PFF and their grades they even have our pass rush ranked in the middle of the pack and it is generally carried heavily by J.J. Watt (35.9) with Antonio Smith (11.9) also grading strongly postive. No one else on the roster is even close to them and Reed (-8.3) and Barwin (-14.1) are some of the lowest among 3-4 LB's when it comes to the pass rush.

They have the Texans #11 in pass rush via their grading system. I prefer those to just stats.

Generally QB pressures is Hits+Hurries. With that in mind the Texans are #17 with 140 (38 QB Hits and 102 QB Hurries). Texans are #12 in QB Hits and #17 in Hurries.\

EDIT: Keep in mind these numbers include last night's game.
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Old 11-30-2012   #198
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

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Unfortunately, we're more middle of the pack. With PFF and their grades they even have our pass rush ranked in the middle of the pack and it is generally carried heavily by J.J. Watt (35.9) with Antonio Smith (11.9) also grading strongly postive. No one else on the roster is even close to them and Reed (-8.3) and Barwin (-14.1) are some of the lowest among 3-4 LB's when it comes to the pass rush.

They have the Texans #11 in pass rush via their grading system. I prefer those to just stats.

Generally QB pressures is Hits+Hurries. With that in mind the Texans are #17 with 140 (38 QB Hits and 102 QB Hurries). Texans are #12 in QB Hits and #17 in Hurries.\

EDIT: Keep in mind these numbers include last night's game.
I'm a big stat fan, but aggregate stats lose a lot of value. They should be changed to rate stats (Hits and/or hurries per pass attempt) to have any predictive value.
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Old 11-30-2012   #199
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

I don't know about that.

AdvancedNFL stats had us with 71 Qb hits.
The Bears had 50 and the Niners had 49.
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Old 11-30-2012   #200
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Default Re: Besides Watt, D-line simply just not getting done this year

Btw, Deuce, do you know how they define a QB hurry?
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