AFC Tie-breaker

[GP]

I can't believe the Colts have the record they have. I am astounded.

I watched some of the Colts-Bills game, Luck was not doing anything overly heroic in that game. He was sacked, he was almost intercepted twice in the short amount of snaps I watched of that game.

I cannot believe they are on our heels like they are.

And with how the Ravens pull wins out of their butts each week, it's not comforting right now. We're 10-1, but frankly there could be some letdown games for us in the final stretch to the finish line.

It seems like Pats and Texans are the best two teams in the AFC and yet the Broncos and Ravens and Colts are ll three doing a really high-effort job of trying to keep pace with us. Nobody needs to say it's a down year in the AFC. I actually think the AFC is very competitive this year. 5 teams that could really do damage in the playoffs, IMO.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

It seems like Pats and Texans are the best two teams in the AFC and yet the Broncos and Ravens and Colts are ll three doing a really high-effort job of trying to keep pace with us. Nobody needs to say it's a down year in the AFC. I actually think the AFC is very competitive this year. 5 teams that could really do damage in the playoffs, IMO.

Agreed. Well, I don't think the Colts would do any damage if they get to the play-offs. Now if the Bengals somehow get in, instead of the Colts, that would be 5 teams that can do some damage.

[Thorn]

Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.

[AngryNateFTW]

The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.

[Mailman]

I agree, especially with that closing game at Cincy with a possible playoff spot at stake for the Bengals. The Ravens will not win out. Hard to see the Patriots doing so, either with SF on their schedule.

[HTown2ATX]

Originally Posted by AngryNateFTW

The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.

While I see what you are saying, this is the same argument people point out about the Texans scraping by a horrible Jags team.....

All I'm saying by that is I wouldn't try to predict their outcome based on that game otherwise that applies to Houston as well wouldn't it?

[redwhiteblue]

Originally Posted by AngryNateFTW

The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.

the Texans escaped a really bad/mediocore Jaguars team

[Allstar]

Rooting for Baltimore to get the 4 seed, so we can avoid Peyton/Brady until the AFC championship. I'd like for Cincy to get in over Indy so they can at least give a team a fight in the wildcard round. I think Indy would be bounced out of the first round pretty easily.

[Mailman]

Originally Posted by redwhiteblue

the Texans escaped a really bad/mediocore Jaguars team

Divisional games are a different breed. That was a non-divisional opponent. I'd say the odds of Baltimore running the table with games against the Broncos, Giants, and Bengals are in our favor.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Thorn

Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.

Denver pretty much has a cakewalk to go. They could easily win out, but would likely lose the tiebreaker to us.

The split with New England could come down to who wins the game in two weeks, but they would likely need to go 5-0 to make that a possibility.

If the Texans can go 3-2 over the next 5 games, they have an excellent shot of getting the #1 seed.

[Yankee_In_TX]

Originally Posted by HTown2ATX

At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.

The 3 way tie breaker can sometimes be super convoluted and not common-sensical.

Probably what they were talking about.

[Mailman]

I suspect this is what they were talking about...there is a plausible scenario where the Texans would lose the #1 overall seed AND a first round bye.

We lose to NE and the Colts in week 17 to finish 13-3. Baltimore wins out and finishes 14-2. New England wins out and finishes the season 13-3.

The Pats get that tiebreaker with us by virtue of their head-to-head win.

#1 seed Baltimore
#2 seed NE
#3 seed Houston hosting a wild card game.....

[GP]

Originally Posted by Thorn

Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.

NE has the best chance to win out, IMO.

Denver is going to have a hard time beating the Bucs (Bucs are really good this year) with their Ravens and Browns games being excellent "trap games," IMO. So they could easily lose 2 maybe 3 games there.

Ravens? I can see them dropping any (and maybe ALL) of the games vs. Redskins, Giants, and avery hard road game against Bengals.

Houston, IMO, should win 3 of their last 5 games. I have us dropping the Patriots game and 1 of the 2 Colts games. Leaving us at 13-3. Goofy things can happen, though, so it's just as likely we bomb out and the Colts catch us and things get dicey for the AFCS title. This season looks like a sure thing, except for a pesky Colts team who didn't get the memo.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

Goofy things can happen, though, so it's just as likely we bomb out and the Colts catch us and things get dicey for the AFCS title. This season looks like a sure thing, except for a pesky Colts team who didn't get the memo.

I don't think losing to the Colts is even a possibility. Had we played them earlier in the year, they'd have another loss & be 4 games behind.

The only chance they have of winning that last game is if we don't need it.

It might be as ugly as the Jags game, or the Lions game, but we won't lose either of those games if we need them. I just don't see it.

[Allstar]

Originally Posted by GP

NE has the best chance to win out, IMO.

New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.

[BeerTastesLikeVictory]

Originally Posted by Allstar

New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.

Also, for some reason Miami always puts up a fight against them and has been known to steal a game from them in recent seasons.

[IDEXAN]

Originally Posted by GP

I can't believe the Colts have the record they have. I am astounded.

Why ? NFL history is replete with examples of teams finishing with not just losing but totally miserable records one year and then making a remarkable rebound the very next into the playoffs. And then there's the fact that they had the opportunity to draft an extraordinary QB, and like they say the NFL is a QB league.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Allstar

New England plays Houston and San Fransisco back to back. Those are the toughest two opponents that any these teams have on their schedule. I don't think they have the best shot to win out.

New England has some serious momentum and historically they roll in December. They're tough, tough, tough in the home stretch of the reg season.

They rarely play down to opponents. We'd have to have our A+ game in order to beat them, and would need them to let up a bit.

San Francisco, IMO, is not as strong as they appear. I put them in the same category as Atlanta. I don't think the Pats would lose to the 49ers.

Originally Posted by BeerTastesLikeVictory

Also, for some reason Miami always puts up a fight against them and has been known to steal a game from them in recent seasons.

Now THAT is something I was going to mention. I think the Pats will likely lose one of the 2 Dolphins games.

Originally Posted by IDEXAN

Why ? NFL history is replete with examples of teams finishing with not just losing but totally miserable records one year and then making a remarkable rebound the very next into the playoffs. And then there's the fact that they had the opportunity to draft an extraordinary QB, and like they say the NFL is a QB league.

Why, you ask? Because outside of Reggie Wayne, their offense has practically unknown players. Even though Luck is considered to be this huge superstar right out of college, he still looks sub-Manning in many ways...and yet that team is gelling and finding ways to win games.

Nobody expected them to be this close behind us. They were supposed to get 8 or 9 wins at most. They have a good chance of playing us tough enough to win one of two from us, and even take advantage of the Texans should we stumble late in the reg season.

As a general note to everyone here:

Nothing is sewn up yet. These last 5 games are not W's yet. I would h-a-t-e for the Texans to let up now, and watch the Colts keep winning...and then have to beat the Colts to either win the AFCS or a wild card at worst. In fact, we must take at a minimum 3 out of the final 5 games to finish 13-3, IMO, in order to be safe for the playoffs. That gives us two "Crap Games" we could produce as long as we handle business in the other 3 games we have.

To me, we're going to beat the Titans next week...then that gives us the Pats. If we beat the Pats, IMO, we're in the drivers' seat the rest of the way. It would take Herculean efforts by our remaining opponents and our playoff seeding contending teams to knock us off the top perch of the AFC.

I will be on pins and needles the next two weeks.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

They rarely play down to opponents. We'd have to have our A+ game in order to beat them, and would need them to let up a bit.

Well...... may as well not even show up. New England is clearly the better team. Just hand them the AFC Championship now & save all of us some time.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Well...... may as well not even show up. New England is clearly the better team. Just hand them the AFC Championship now & save all of us some time.

That's not what I said, yet how did I know you'd be replying that way???

Oh yeah. Patterns. I almost forgot.

I'm just saying that as Big Boy as we think our Texans have been this year, the Patriots are beyond Big Boy...they're like Galactus.

No shame or self-loathing when I say we have to bring our A+ game and get some help from them too. Just keeping it real. This is the big time now.