Are we overusing Foster?

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by drunkcookie

It has only been four games, a quarter of the season, so I can't say that I'm "concerned", but for sure paying attention... Now if it were at the halfway mark and Foster was pacing 400+ that would have me concerned for sure...


I looked up Foster's carries from last year and picked a four-game stretch somewhere in the middle of the season. I then averaged his carries per game for those four games. If you were to apply that average to 16 games, Foster would have been pacing for 368 carries.. of course he finished with 278, almost 100 less than that four-game average would suggest if applied to 16 games... So i guess my point is his carries can be trimmed, whether intentionally or by the design of this system and team that had him carry it only 278 times last season...

He had 278 last year because he only played 13 games. His average that year was 21 carries a game, good for 342 over a 16 game season. He's being used about 17% more on average this year over 2011's average.

[b0ng]

If Tate can't go then I wouldn't mind seeing more Forsett.

[Ryan]

Games like this are where i can justify Foster getting 30+ carries. He looked back to his old self today too. Still would like to get Tate back ASAP.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Per Nick Scurfield:

RB Arian Foster

1st in rushing attempts (132)
2nd in rushing yards (532)
1st in rushing touchdowns (5)
3rd in yards from scrimmage (592)
1st in scrimmage touchdowns (6)

Arian is 2nd in rushing yards with 532 with 132 attempts. First in rushing yards is J. Charles (KC) with 562 with only 102 attempts.


Football Outsiders has just updated their 2012 RB stats. It's interesting to review these parameters for comparison.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Kubiak

(on RB Arian Foster’s workload) “I don’t have those numbers in front of me. I don’t worry about that. I think those things work themselves out. I think if (RB) Arian (Foster) doesn’t miss a month of football last year, he probably carries it 400 times last year. We are the number one possession team in football so somebody back there dotting our I’s is going to carry the ball. I don’t get too consumed with that. If I felt like Arian was wearing down or something, I’d be the first one to take him out of there or whatever. Heck, I got him arguing that he wants more so that’s a good problem for a football team to have.”


WHAAAAT????????Last year, in 13 games, Foster carried the ball 278 times. If this is extrapolated to include the 3 missed games, he would have carried the ball for a total of only 331 times.

[TheIronDuke]

Thought it would be a good time to re-visit this thread. Initially I voted no in the poll but I'd like to change my vote. Forsett looked good in his limited carries against JAX and I'm wondering why Kubes is so intent on force-feeding the ball to Foster instead of playing the hot hand. Gotta wonder what long-term effects his workload this season is going to cause going forward.

[HOU-TEX]

Yes, but like every player on the team...that's what he's paid to do.

I know it's cliche'-ish, but that's how I feel.

With that said, I really want Tate to get his ass on the field. I know hammys are finicky, but dang.

[Mr teX]

Originally Posted by TheIronDuke

Thought it would be a good time to re-visit this thread. Initially I voted no in the poll but I'd like to change my vote. Forsett looked good in his limited carries against JAX and I'm wondering why Kubes is so intent on force-feeding the ball to Foster instead of playing the hot hand. Gotta wonder what long-term effects his workload this season is going to cause going forward.

Surely you don't believe that Gary's not aware of Arian's touches this year do you? I think what gary's point in all of this is that he's going to run his offense the way it needs to be ran so as to make sure that it's as effective as possible....no matter what. & right now that calls for Arian to carry the ball as much as he has thus far in the season.

I do think we are overusing him this year, but it's a bit misleading imo b/c i don't think we'd be doing it if Tate was healthy. you can't just give tate's carries to Forsett to offset b/c they don't pose the same threat. Forsett's a scat-back with little power...Tate's more of a bruiser than can wear down defenses....oh & he has break away speed too.

having said all this, I think Gary's not really worried too much about it b/c there's still time to curtail Arian's carries................................... if the team handles its business & wraps everything up by week 14-15 or so...& Tate gets healthy towards the end of the season. Then he and Forsett can handle the last few games of the season.

[TheIronDuke]

Originally Posted by Mr teX

Surely you don't believe that Gary's not aware of Arian's touches this year do you? I think what gary's point in all of this is that he's going to run his offense the way it needs to be ran so as to make sure that it's as effective as possible....no matter what. & right now that calls for Arian to carry the ball as much as he has thus far in the season.

I do think we are overusing him this year, but it's a bit misleading imo b/c i don't think we'd be doing it if Tate was healthy. you can't just give tate's carries to Forsett to offset b/c they don't pose the same threat. Forsett's a scat-back with little power...Tate's more of a bruiser than can wear down defenses....oh & he has break away speed too.

having said all this, I think Gary's not really worried too much about it b/c there's still time to curtail Arian's carries................................... if the team handles its business & wraps everything up by week 14-15 or so...& Tate gets healthy towards the end of the season. Then he and Forsett can handle the last few games of the season.

I am sure Kubes knows that he's been giving Arian the rock quite a bit this season. And I agree that if Tate could ever get healthy, which looks unlikely, that he'd be getting a lot of carries too. I think Forsett is a similar-ish back to Foster so why not use him when Foster's not as effective to at least lighten the wear and tear on him? Like the Chicago game where he was getting stuffed over and over in the 2nd half, would've preferred that was Forsett than our feature back.

I hope that someday Tate can get his ass out of the training room and onto the field. Doesn't look likely because the dude is constantly injured. In the mean time I'd LOVE to see what Grimes and do as well and really hope we can keep Arian below the 400 rushing attempts, but that's not looking good. Especially if we make it as far in the playoffs as we all hope.

[The Pencil Neck]

Kubes trusts Arian so much that he gives Arian the option to sub himself in or out depending on how he (Arian) feels. At this point, I think the high number of snaps for Arian is because Arian wants to be in the game.

Personally, I think they need to police his snaps a lot more and keep him on the sidelines some but... back in the day Eric Dickerson had several 350+ carry seasons (including a 400+ carry season) and didn't break down like modern backs seem to. Hopefully Arian is a throwback.

[TheIronDuke]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Kubes trusts Arian so much that he gives Arian the option to sub himself in or out depending on how he (Arian) feels. At this point, I think the high number of snaps for Arian is because Arian wants to be in the game.

Personally, I think they need to police his snaps a lot more and keep him on the sidelines some but... back in the day Eric Dickerson had several 350+ carry seasons (including a 400+ carry season) and didn't break down like modern backs seem to. Hopefully Arian is a throwback.

That is my concern is the 400+ carry threshhold. No modern back has ever had a 400 carry season without repercussions. It wouldn't bother me too much if we didn't just sign him to a fat extension but it's like buying a Viper and using it as a daily driver.

This article scares the bejeezus out of me! http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

[EllisUnit]

im not worried about fosters production declining. He is on his way to his 3rd straight 1,000 yard season, but the guy is a glider he does a good job at making defenders miss. He isnt out there going Earl Campbell on people running them over on his way to the endzone.

[Ryan]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

im not worried about fosters production declining. He is on his way to his 3rd straight 1,000 yard season, but the guy is a glider he does a good job at making defenders miss. He isnt out there going Earl Campbell on people running them over on his way to the endzone.

The thing is, i see him simply running into more piles this year than i have in year's past. Definitely not breaking tackles like he used to either.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by Ryan

The thing is, i see him simply running into more piles this year than i have in year's past. Definitely not breaking tackles like he used to either.

agree with that part, he used to be a breaking tackle machine, now he goes down if a defender "thinks" about touching him. ALTHOUGH lately i have seen him break more tackles than earlier in the season.

[drs23]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

agree with that part, he used to be a breaking tackle machine, now he goes down if a defender "thinks" about touching him. ALTHOUGH lately i have seen him break more tackles than earlier in the season.

EU and others. It's clearly obvious. He's "saving himself" for the Prom. When we get there, look out sauerkraut!

[powda]

Originally Posted by TheIronDuke

Gotta wonder what long-term effects his workload this season is going to cause going forward.

See Larry johnson.

Its a travesty tate hasnt gotten more carries when healthy. He's not going to be here next year and I think we all know it. Burn up his tread a little more and extend the career of your superstar. When the game isnt remotely close why is foster still in there?

As for foster running into piles...

Theres 2 new faces on the ol and the fairer assessment would be: the offensive line is not creating gaps like they have in the past, theres more penetration by defenders, AND foster is not breaking tackles at the level he did last year.

[Wolf]

He is sitting at 325 (36 more carries than Peterson)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false

I didn't realize Morris was having that good of a season over there in Washington

[amazing80]

Originally Posted by Wolf

He is sitting at 325 (36 more carries than Peterson)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false

I didn't realize Morris was having that good of a season over there in Washington

Yikes, thats a lot of carries