2012 Playoff Picture

[Texn4life]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

Broncos vs Colts in the wild card round would be very interesting.

I think the Broncos will end up with the 2 seed when its all said and done.

[brakos82]

Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Monday Night game tonight

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 11

Division Leaders:

Texans (9-1)... HFA 70%... Top-2 85%... Division 95%... Playoffs >99%.* - Can clinch playoff berth with HOU, NE, SEA, JAX, CLE wins.
Ravens (8-2)... HFA 16%... Top-2 55%... Division 90%... Playoffs 99%.
Patriots (7-3)... HFA 9%... Top-2 24%... Division 92%... Playoffs 95%.
Broncos (7-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 33%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (6-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 31%... Playoffs 69%.
Colts (6-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 58%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (5-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 17%.
Jets (4-6) (3 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 16%.
Chargers (4-6) (3 behind DEN)... Division <1%... Playoffs 14%.
Bills (4-6) (3 behind NE)... Division 1%... Playoffs 12%.
Titans (4-6) (5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Dolphins (4-6) Playoffs: 6%.
Raiders (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.**
Browns (2-8) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race
Chiefs (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - can be eliminated from playoffs with DEN and either TEN or IND wins.
Jaguars (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND wins, and one of PIT, CIN, SD wins.

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NFC Playoff Picture - after week 11

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 69%... Top-2 90%... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (7-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 37%... Division 47%... Playoffs 84%.#
49ers (6-2-1)... HFA 6%... Top-2 28%... Division 69%... Playoffs 84%.#
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 37%... Playoffs 53%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (7-3) (0.5 behind CHI)... HFA 8%... Top-2 28%... Division 45%... Playoffs 84%.
Cowboys (5-5) (1 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 53%... Playoffs 58%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Seahawks (6-4) (1 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 7%... Division 26%... Playoffs 55%.
Buccs (6-4) (3 behind ATL)... HFA <1%... Top 2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 27%.
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 8%... Playoffs 22%.*
Saints (5-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 15%.
Redskins (4-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 10%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Cardinals (4-6) Playoffs: 4%.
Rams (3-6-1) Playoffs: 2%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 2%.
Lions (4-6) Playoffs: 1%.*
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.** - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and CHI, MIN wins.

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2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-9) - #1 54%... Top-3 87%... Top-5 96%.
Jaguars (1-9) - #1 27%... Top-3 75%... Top-5 89%.
Browns (2-8) - #1 10%... Top-3 47%... Top-5 72%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 5%... Top-3 33%... Top-5 58%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 15%... Top-5 37%.
Rams (3-6-1) - #1 <1%... Top-3 9%... Top-5 30%.
Raiders (3-7) - #1 2%... Top-3 17%... Top-5 36%.

[The Pencil Neck]

Shouldn't you wait until Tuesday to do this? I mean, I appreciate it and look forward to it but it seems like you could more accurate numbers after all the week's games have been played.

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Shouldn't you wait until Tuesday to do this? I mean, I appreciate it and look forward to it but it seems like you could more accurate numbers after all the week's games have been played.

Eh, I'm impatient.

And the season's still young... I'll probably start updating on Friday, Monday and Tuesday once things get down to the wire.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Texn4life

I think the Broncos will end up with the 2 seed when its all said and done.

The 8-2 Ravens (current 2nd seed) still have games against the Steelers, Redskins, Giants, Bengals & Broncos.

The 6-3 Broncos still have games against the Ravens.

You may very well be right. But the Patriots have games against the Texans & 49ers. So it'll be a fight to the wire.

[Exascor]

The current playoff picture has 2 games with interesting stories. I doubt this will last but:
Colts @ Broncos - Manning vs his replacement
Seahawks @ Packers - Inaccurate Reception v 2.0

[brakos82]

Some shuffling in the NFC picture after last night, with % changes in parenthesis.

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 11 MNF included

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 74% (+5)... Top-2 89% (-1)... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
49ers (7-2-1)... HFA 10% (+4)... Top-2 44% (+16)... Division 81% (+12)... Playoffs 93% (+9).
Packers (7-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 39% (+11)... Division 63% (+18)... Playoffs 84%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 37%... Playoffs 53%.

Wild-Cards:

Bears (7-3) (even with GB)... HFA 6% (-9)... Top-2 22% (-15)... Division 37% (-10)... Playoffs 76% (-8).
Cowboys (5-5) (1 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 53%... Playoffs 58%.

[brakos82]

Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Played Thanksgiving game

AFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Texans (10-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 88%... Division 96%... Playoffs >99%.*# - Can clinch playoff berth with SEA, JAX, CLE wins... or SEA, JAX, BAL, OAK wins.
Ravens (8-2)... HFA 12%... Top-2 51%... Division 89%... Playoffs 99%.
Patriots (8-3)#... HFA 11%... Top-2 29%... Division 97%... Playoffs 99%.
Broncos (7-3)... HFA 3%... Top-2 30%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (6-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 11%... Playoffs 71%.
Colts (6-4) (3.5 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 59%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (5-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 19%.
Chargers (4-6) (3 behind DEN)... Division <1%... Playoffs 14%.
Bills (4-6) (3.5 behind NE)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.
Titans (4-6) (5.5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.

All-but-eliminated:

Jets (4-7)# Playoffs: 7%.
Dolphins (4-6) Playoffs: 6%.
Raiders (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.**
Browns (2-8) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race
Chiefs (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and either TEN or IND wins, or a couple of other options. (does it really matter?)
Jaguars (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND wins, and one of PIT, CIN, SD wins.

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NFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 89%... Division 95%... Playoffs 99%.
49ers (7-2-1)... HFA 10%... Top-2 44%... Division 82%... Playoffs 94%.
Packers (7-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 39%... Division 65%... Playoffs 85%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 49%... Playoffs 56%.

Wild-Cards:

Bears (7-3) (even with GB)... HFA 6%... Top-2 22%... Division 36%... Playoffs 77%.
Seahawks (6-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 7%... Division 17%... Playoffs 54%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Redskins (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 25%... Playoffs 29%.
Cowboys (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 24%... Playoffs 28%.
Buccs (6-4) (3 behind ATL)... HFA <1%... Top 2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 28%.
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 25%.*
Saints (5-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 16%.

All-but-eliminated:

Cardinals (4-6) Playoffs: 4%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.
Rams (3-6-1) Playoffs: 1%.
Lions (4-7)# Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.** - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and SEA, MIN wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-9) - #1 53%... Top-3 87%... Top-5 97%.
Jaguars (1-9) - #1 27%... Top-3 77%... Top-5 90%.
Browns (2-8) - #1 11%... Top-3 49%... Top-5 74%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 6%... Top-3 34%... Top-5 60%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 15%... Top-5 37%.
Rams (3-6-1) - #1 <1%... Top-3 9%... Top-5 32%.
Raiders (3-7) - #1 2%... Top-3 18%... Top-5 38%.

[brakos82]

Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Plays Monday Night

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (10-1)... HFA 76%... Top-2 88%... Division 95%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win over TEN, or NE win, or SD and BAL wins.
Ravens (9-2)... HFA 13%... Top-2 60%... Division 97%... Playoffs >99%.*
- Can clinch playoffs with win over PIT.
- Can clinch division with win and Bengals loss.
Patriots (8-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 21%... Division 97%... Playoffs 99%.
- Can clinch division with win over MIA.
Broncos (8-3)... HFA 3%... Top-2 28%... Division >99%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch division with win over TB, or CIN win.

Wild-Cards:

Colts (7-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 83%.
Steelers (6-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 49%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (6-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 33%.
Dolphins (5-6) (3 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 10%.

Close to elimination:

Chargers (4-7) Playoffs: 9%.
Jets (4-7) Playoffs: 8%.
Bills (4-7) Playoffs: 6%.
Titans (4-7) Playoffs: 3%.
Raiders (3-8) Playoffs: 1%.**
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to CLE and IND, CIN, PIT wins.
Browns (3-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to OAK and IND, CIN, PIT wins.
Jaguars (2-9) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to BUF, or IND, CIN, PIT wins.

Eliminated:

Chiefs (1-10)

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NFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Falcons (10-1)... HFA 86%... Top-2 95%... Division >99%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win over NO and CHI win.
- Can clinch division with win over NO and DEN win.
49ers (8-2-1)... HFA 8%... Top-2 58%... Division 95%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (8-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 30%... Division 58%... Playoffs 93%.
Giants (7-4)... HFA <1%... Top-2 4%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (7-4) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 1%... Top-2 10%... Division 38%... Playoffs 82%.
Seahawks (6-5) (2.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 41%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (5-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 18%... Playoffs 28%.
Redskins (5-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 17%... Playoffs 25%.
Vikings (6-5) (2 behind CHI)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 19%.*
Buccs (6-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 19%.

Close to elimination:

Saints (5-6) Playoffs: 7%.
Rams (4-6-1) Playoffs: 4%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 2%.#
Cardinals (4-7) Playoffs: 1%.
Lions (4-7) Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.#**
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to PHI and: loss to KC, or NO, or NYJ, or MIN wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-10) - #1 77%... Top-3 96%... Top-5 99%.
Jaguars (2-9) - #1 8%... Top-3 64%... Top-5 81%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 7%... Top-3 44%... Top-5 65%.
Browns (3-8) - #1 2%... Top-3 24%... Top-5 49%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 20%... Top-5 42%.
Raiders (3-8) - #1 2%... Top-3 18%... Top-5 38%.

[Corrosion]

Here's how I think it ends up ....


AFC -

1 Houston
2 Baltimore
3 Denver
4 New England
5 Cincy
6 Indy

Steelers just cant hang on without Ben .... Cincy will move up and take that spot. 5-6 spots to be determined - Houston playing Indy twice in the last three weeks , those games may or may not factor in.


NFC

1 Falcons
2 49ers
3 Bears
4 Giants
5 Packers
6 Seabirds


Could see the Seahawks getting passed by the Buc's .... Thats the only change I can see realistically happening in this conference.

[gwallaia]

I see the first round of the AFC Playoffs looking like this.

Bengals @ Patriots
Colts @ Broncos

I see the 2nd round going like this

Patriots @ Ravens
Broncos @ Texans

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by gwallaia

I see the first round of the AFC Playoffs looking like this.

Bengals @ Patriots
Colts @ Broncos

I see the 2nd round going like this

Patriots @ Ravens
Broncos @ Texans

So you have the Pats finishing with a better "seed" than the Bronco's ?


I see it the opposite as the Bronco's have an easier road to hoe to finish the regular season with Tampa Bay , Baltimore , Oakland , KC and Cleveland.


The Pats get Miami twice (they are no punk and division rivals), Houston , San Francisco and the Jaq's.

The Bronco's have 3 games they should win just by showing up .... the Pats only 1 considering the two division games Vs the Fish.


Flip those second round matchups with NE @ Houston and Denver @ Baltimore .... being the only consequence.

[gwallaia]

You could very well be right. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by gwallaia

. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

Brady or Manning , pick your poison .... ugh.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by gwallaia

You could very well be right. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

Psshh!!! We've got a great QB of our own. Plus a great RB & a great defense.

[BullBlitz]

Originally Posted by Corrosion

Brady or Manning , pick your poison .... ugh.

I hope the seeding falls such that we get to play them both. THAT would be awesome.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by BullBlitz

I hope the seeding falls such that we get to play them both. THAT would be awesome.

Awesome like the clap.

I'd rather spank Flacco again before playing both Manning & Brady. Or better yet, serve up Flacco & Luck, bypassing Manning & Brady all together.

[BullBlitz]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Awesome like the clap.

I'd rather spank Flacco again before playing both Manning & Brady. Or better yet, serve up Flacco & Luck, bypassing Manning & Brady all together.

To each his own. I want to see the Texans play against the best.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by BullBlitz

To each his own. I want to see the Texans play against the best.

We've already played Manning once. We'll play Brady in 2 weeks.

No sense tempting fate

[Norg]

there is aVERYYYYYY good chance the texans play the Ravens div round UNLESS some how the colts beat the ravens then we will play the COLTS div round


how would yall like that playing the colts 3 times when we let them inthe playoffs