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Old 10-25-2012   #41
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
per their rankings ... #9 on offense, #3 on defense, and #31 on special teams. seems about right to me there. without special teams included we're the #3 team behind green bay and san francisco.
When you look at the rankings like this I feel as though that is not far off actual performance. The special teams haven't been bad enough to produce huge game costing blunders, but I feel as though it's going to happen at some point. If our special teams plays even mediocre we would probably be the top of the AFC.

However there is merit to the argument that football doesn't lend itself as well to advanced statistics such as DVOA or PFF's grading system, due to the small sample size. I think both advanced metrics and traditional statistics can be intertwined and you can glean a very accurate picture of how each team is doing relative to the other teams in the NFL.
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Old 10-25-2012   #42
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

The angle of the dangle...................
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Old 10-25-2012   #43
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

ProFootballFocus, fwiw ..... they don't really grind out a complicated algebraic equation...
Quote:
1. Houston Texans (3rd)

A resounding win over a Ravens side suffering/recovering from injury was enough for two of our analysts to push Houston to the top of their rankings. With two (myself included) ranking them fifth, that Packers game hasnít been forgotten just yet.

2. New York Giants (2nd)

A chance for redemption awaits the Giants as they travel to Dallas for a big NFC East game. Coming off a big-time win over the Redskins, itís easy to see why our team isnít sleeping on the reigning Super Bowl champions.

3. Atlanta Falcons (1st)

It seems a bye week has given our team chance to accept just how fortunate the Falcons were in their last three games. They may be undefeated, but thereís not an awful lot of confidence that it will stay that way much longer when the schedule toughens up.

4. San Francisco 49ers (4th)

A hard-fought win over a resolute Seahawks team provided the perfect showcase for just how far this offensive line has come. The concern is the play of Alex Smith, which has dropped off the last two weeks. Thatís the glaring weakness in this team.

5. Green Bay Packers (6th)

It wasnít so much that Aaron Rodgers was playing badly in the first five games of the season, more that he had failed to find his 2011 form. Now he has, the league is on notice.

6. New England Patriots (5th)

The Patriots managed to look a lot more convincing in their three defeats than they did laboring to a win over the Jets. Thatís a concern, even if the form of Tom Brady shouldnít be.

7. Denver Broncos (7th)

Their record has teams sleeping on them, but after overcoming the hardest part of their schedule the Broncos are a team that could make a big impression in the AFC. Thatís what our team believes.

8. Chicago Bears (8th)

You can only beat whatís in front of you, but at the same time the Bearsí five victories havenít come against one team with a winning record. Unlike the Broncos, their schedule will toughen up and weíll get a better glimpse as to what theyíre capable of.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ings-week-8-2/
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Old 10-25-2012   #44
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Post Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Its also poorly worded

They've forced 10 fumbles, and recovered 4 of them. Statistics show that most teams recover ~50% of fumbles (random)

They've fumbled 9 times, but lost 100% of them. Thats unusual and likely won't keep happening

Still, 9 fumbles in 6 games is a lot
It's about time that happened to them. They were slapped around so many times in the 80's & 90's & kept winning. They're the definition of team "lucky".
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Old 10-25-2012   #45
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Who really cares what we are now? The best team in the NFL is the one hoisting the Lombardi trophy in February. That's all that really matters here.
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Old 10-27-2012   #46
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Fortunately, the NFL has a playoff system to determine champions, and not some convoluted BCS crap or rankings where opinions mean anything.

I have no doubt that the Texans are better than the Broncos, including the win at Denver. So they can keep their editorial rankings and I'll stick with reality.
I hope that Denver and New England keep winning because I'd them to be in the Playoffs.
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Old 10-28-2012   #47
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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I hope that Denver and New England keep winning because I'd them to be in the Playoffs.
I'd rather see Miami & Buffalo, maybe even Jacksonville (screw up their draft & steam roll them in the play-offs).
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Old 10-28-2012   #48
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Any good statatician can make stats prove anything thy want.

The only stats that determine who goes to the playoffs and Super Bowl are Wins and Losses.
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Old 10-29-2012   #49
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Any good statatician can make stats prove anything thy want.

The only stats that determine who goes to the playoffs and Super Bowl are Wins and Losses.
As i have heard a million times by announcers.... You are only as good as your record....
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Old 10-29-2012   #50
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

All that matters is getting to the Super Bowl. NFC is irrelevant to me. The teams we should worry about are NE, Denver, and PItt. Those 3 teams all have Super Bowl winning QBs.

The BIGGEST game of our season comes at NE on a Monday night. That game is worth two games in the tie breaking standings.


If we can keep it rolling and pull out a win there we would be the clear favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, best team in AFC, and from there we could find out first hand who the best team in the League is in the big game. Getting Brady at home in the playoffs would be HUGE.


Going to be one heck of a ride gentlemen.
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Old 10-29-2012   #51
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

At the beginning of the season, people were asking "Yeah, but who have the Texans beaten?"

There are now 6 teams with winning records in the AFC (besides us) and we've beaten half of them.

EDIT: And two of those are division leaders.
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Old 10-30-2012   #52
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Media also loves the Donkeys since they have Manning. Denver have not got this much love since Elway was there.
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