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Old 10-24-2012   #21
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Exascor View Post
This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
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Old 10-24-2012   #22
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
Excellent take. I think it is also important to point out, at least in my opinion, that Foster turned the corner against the Ravens. He looked more like the Foster I'm used to seeing, and he has been improving over the course of the season (GB egg aside). I'm excited to see it all culminate into a football powerhouse by the end of the season. Works out pretty well that we have a favorable schedule, all things considered.
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Old 10-24-2012   #23
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I think I understand why they're considered "Outsiders" now over there at footballoutsiders.com

It's really not that big a mystery.
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Old 10-24-2012   #24
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
Well I only have one stat for these stat geeks. We beat the team they're saying is better than us in their stadium. Sometimes these guys just outsmart themselves. It also took a miraculous comeback for them to win their last game. Don't get me wrong I think Denver will be an improved team as the season goes on, but they aren't there yet.
The Colts beat the Packers.

Quick, who's the better team?
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Old 10-24-2012   #25
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

per their rankings ... #9 on offense, #3 on defense, and #31 on special teams. seems about right to me there. without special teams included we're the #3 team behind green bay and san francisco.
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Old 10-24-2012   #26
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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It's going to cost us a game or two this season. There has to be an expendable player or two who we can release to sign a guy who only kicks on kickoffs. The Cowboys did it a few years ago. For most teams, it would be a waste of a roster spot. But we're that bad on kickoffs.
I have a feeling it will be the Viking game... Percy Harvin is giving me nightmares. Our ST has to step up before we play them
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Old 10-24-2012   #27
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Excellent take. I think it is also important to point out, at least in my opinion, that Foster turned the corner against the Ravens. He looked more like the Foster I'm used to seeing, and he has been improving over the course of the season (GB egg aside). I'm excited to see it all culminate into a football powerhouse by the end of the season. Works out pretty well that we have a favorable schedule, all things considered.
There were a few other good things on the OL as well. Brown is looking to be himself again & I saw flashes of 2010 Wade Smith. After the bye, I'm sure Kubiak is going to have that OL cadilacing (I'm sure that's a word).

& for some reason, I think we're about to see Matt blossom into an elite QB. I don't know why, but I think he's going to average 3+ TDs a game from here on out.
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Old 10-24-2012   #28
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I don't know why anybody cares about this junk. Win football games. That's it!
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Old 10-24-2012   #29
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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The Colts beat the Packers.

Quick, who's the better team?
Yeah, and the Colts played well for a quarter and a half that game. We basically dominated the Broncos at their house for 3 plus quarters. I'm not saying that the head to head matchup means everything, but anyone who watched those two games wouldn't make that comparison. One team won in relatively convincing fashion and other team won in an improbably comeback. If those 2 teams played 10 more times the Colts would maybe win one of them. I doubt anyone could say with a straight face that we would just win one out of 10 against the Broncos.
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Old 10-24-2012   #30
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

blah blah blah blah. We'll see who's who in January.
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Old 10-24-2012   #31
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
We've all seen our offense be very inconsistent across the board. The run game looks fine, then the run game sputters. The passing game looks great and then it sputters. We haven't gotten a consistently good game from beginning to end yet this season. This has been especially true of the run game where Arian and Ben were getting an anemic YPC up until last week.

The problem is the line. The problem is the inconsistency on the right side of that line. Until it gels, this is what we're going to get.

We've been very, very lucky because our defense has done a great job at creating turnovers. This has given us some short fields and our offense has taken advantage which has turned into some blowouts.

BUT. Our defense has an achilles heel. Our defense is best against the pass. If a team decides it's going to stick to the run and just pound the rock, they're going to gain a lot of yards (like the Titans finally did.) If we're in a close game against a running team, our defense is going to get shellacked.

The way our defense is good against the pass is very telling, though. We're pretty good at getting pressure and forcing bad throws. This makes the secondary look like monsters but it's really disguising a weakness. Against a great QB who doesn't get rattled and can make good throws under pressure (like Rodgers), we get eaten alive unless our offense can pick up the slack.

The fact that our offense has been able to ground and pound late in most games has kept our defense off the field and helped them look even better.

We are a very good team. But barring injury, our best football is ahead of us because our offense should improve as the season goes on and that should make the entire team look even better.
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Old 10-24-2012   #32
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

If only we could kick the ball out of the back of the endzone or out of freaking bounds. Hmmm...

If only there was something we could do...
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Old 10-24-2012   #33
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perki-Perk View Post
Excellent take. I think it is also important to point out, at least in my opinion, that Foster turned the corner against the Ravens. He looked more like the Foster I'm used to seeing, and he has been improving over the course of the season (GB egg aside). I'm excited to see it all culminate into a football powerhouse by the end of the season. Works out pretty well that we have a favorable schedule, all things considered.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
We've all seen our offense be very inconsistent across the board. The run game looks fine, then the run game sputters. The passing game looks great and then it sputters. We haven't gotten a consistently good game from beginning to end yet this season. This has been especially true of the run game where Arian and Ben were getting an anemic YPC up until last week.

The problem is the line. The problem is the inconsistency on the right side of that line. Until it gels, this is what we're going to get.

We've been very, very lucky because our defense has done a great job at creating turnovers. This has given us some short fields and our offense has taken advantage which has turned into some blowouts.

BUT. Our defense has an achilles heel. Our defense is best against the pass. If a team decides it's going to stick to the run and just pound the rock, they're going to gain a lot of yards (like the Titans finally did.) If we're in a close game against a running team, our defense is going to get shellacked.

The way our defense is good against the pass is very telling, though. We're pretty good at getting pressure and forcing bad throws. This makes the secondary look like monsters but it's really disguising a weakness. Against a great QB who doesn't get rattled and can make good throws under pressure (like Rodgers), we get eaten alive unless our offense can pick up the slack.

The fact that our offense has been able to ground and pound late in most games has kept our defense off the field and helped them look even better.

We are a very good team. But barring injury, our best football is ahead of us because our offense should improve as the season goes on and that should make the entire team look even better.
I'm with you guys. I think there's still work to do, holes to fill, improvements to make. A.J. still doesn't look in top form yet. Foster is just now getting right and Tate is still hurting. They still need to rotate guys in and out on the right side of the OL, back when we were optimum, all 5 guys played together all 16 games. I'd like to see two guys step up and take full command of the RG and RT spots. The middle of the defensive front seven still worries me; especially with Matt Forte on the horizon.

And special teams....

I ain't saying we're winning with smoke & mirrors but those are some of the things I'd like to see tightened up if we're stay on this winning path and do damage in the playoffs.
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Old 10-24-2012   #34
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
If only we could kick the ball out of the back of the endzone or out of freaking bounds. Hmmm...

If only there was something we could do...
works for me, we should get another specialist to replace holliday - a kickoff guy. i'm to the point where i'd like to see us eliminate special teams. kick it through the endzone or punt out of bounds, and kneel/fair catch everything. as it stands now that'd be a noticeable improvement.
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Old 10-24-2012   #35
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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Did we watch the same game?

All four phases were dominated by the Packers. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching. The only 'highlight' was JJ Watt and the game clock finally reaching 0:00.
I agree, we got beat in all aspects. But I also seriously believe it was the ST that set us back, and the offense & defense couldn't keep up. Take a look again at the play-by-play. Take away the Posey offsides, and the Barwin leap, it's potentially 17-17 going into the 4th. We could have had an excellent chance at an "ugly" win if STs simply didn't make mistakes.
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Old 10-24-2012   #36
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I didn't know DTE works for Football Outsiders.......good to know.
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Old 10-24-2012   #37
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
the way the afc is no way we would miss playoffs we got motnsh to improve come play off time with hard work and no key injurys we could be one hell of a team..what matters in the end is playing with heart and they played it agaisnt ravens..we didnt jsut win we made them look like amaetuers..more games liek that and we got great hance of makign to sb and winning
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Old 10-25-2012   #38
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
Yeah, and the Colts played well for a quarter and a half that game. We basically dominated the Broncos at their house for 3 plus quarters. I'm not saying that the head to head matchup means everything, but anyone who watched those two games wouldn't make that comparison. One team won in relatively convincing fashion and other team won in an improbably comeback. If those 2 teams played 10 more times the Colts would maybe win one of them. I doubt anyone could say with a straight face that we would just win one out of 10 against the Broncos.
Peyton Manning has been working in that system for all of 2 & a half months & they are already the most efficient team according to Football outsiders numbers, which have normally been accepted pretty well around here.

Now that they say we aren't the best team in the league, we're going to pick apart the flaws in their system. "Best" team doesn't always win. If the Broncos is better than we are & we beat them, dominated them, that can only be a good thing. Much better than us beating up on inferior teams.

Especially now. The teams we'll see from these two clubs in December won't be close to the teams we'll see at the end of December (& that's what really matters). We're either going to be better or worse. The regular season is a journey to the play-offs, that's the real season, the one that really matters.
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Old 10-25-2012   #39
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Old 10-25-2012   #40
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
Peyton Manning has been working in that system for all of 2 & a half months & they are already the most efficient team according to Football outsiders numbers, which have normally been accepted pretty well around here.

Now that they say we aren't the best team in the league, we're going to pick apart the flaws in their system. "Best" team doesn't always win. If the Broncos is better than we are & we beat them, dominated them, that can only be a good thing. Much better than us beating up on inferior teams.

Especially now. The teams we'll see from these two clubs in December won't be close to the teams we'll see at the end of December (& that's what really matters). We're either going to be better or worse. The regular season is a journey to the play-offs, that's the real season, the one that really matters.
I don't care what the numbers say. I know what my eyes tell me and they've racked up a lot of offensive numbers having to scramble coming back this year. They've been clearly outplayed in just about every first half of all of their games. So is their second half play indicative of the true team? Some would say yes, and some would probably say no highlighting teams sitting back to try to protect leads.

I never said they weren't a good team. I personally don't buy into these types of computer stuffed stats, but that's just me. I watch the games and form my own opinions. So the numbers can say they're better and thats fine. Our record shows we were the better team when we played them on that day in Denver. Is that better for you?
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