Are we overusing Foster?

[Thorn]

You know something, I have no idea if we are actually using up Arian to fast or not. I'm not a coach, and I'm not in the locker room or on the field with them. I'll leave it up to Kubiak. It's all a fan can do.

Well, besides *****. And we do that a lot around here.

OK, edit to say the asteriks are for typing in the noun for a female dog.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

A MUST READ: Effect of Running Back Carries
on Future Production on this very subject that I just fortuitously came across, published today. It covers, in in-depth detail, the very subject we have been debating here.



Yes, this is a fantasy site. But it has an unbelievably detailed breakdown (with easy-to-review table presentation) of what has happened to all the top high-carry NFL RBs following their work horse exposures..........and, with very isolated exception, it's not very good news at all. If it teaches you anything, it is that the human body has it's limitations.

Some more numbers including additional players that didn't quite reach the 390 carries, but were pretty high up there. The pattern is still disturbing.

http://walterfootball.com/fantasy2009mostcarries.php

[HJam72]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

Some more numbers including additional players that didn't quite reach the 390 carries, but were pretty high up there. The pattern is still disturbing.

http://walterfootball.com/fantasy2009mostcarries.php

I think Kubiak needs to see that. He seems to think that how Foster feels "right now" is all that matters and "he's fine."

[noxiousdog]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

We've had 20+ point leads in these first 4 games. I reckon any RB would have an extensive amount of carries if their team was up 20 in every game. Will this happen every week? I highly doubt it.

Right now, this is no issue to me

But that's what I don't understand. You have Tate and Forsett. Why does Arian have to have so many carries when you're already up?

[TexansBlood]

That's alot of carries for him and we been "blowing out" teams, Ben Tate should be getting more carriers in the 2nd half and Foster should be resting. It will take a toll on his body in the future.

[Dread-Head]

Originally Posted by PapaL

Touché!
Must spread rep blah blah blah

You're not CRAZY! You don't pay your dues, you don't show up at the meetings, you don't do your community service hours. You've been downgraded. You're no longer "crazy" your just a little "nuts" now.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

And at this rate, we'll be paying him for four extra years of bad productivity after this season if he goes over 400 carries this year. Maybe he won't wear down if he does carry the load that much, but history suggests otherwise.

I'd rather not have another Shaun Alexander situation.

The Texans have a 3 yr window to win a SB. If giving Foster the ball 350-400 times a yr during this period helps win a SB. Then count me in the give him the d**n ball crowd.

Earl was productive for 6 yrs with a heavy workload and a much more violent running style. Emmitt had a similar running style as Foster (They very rarely take direct hits) and was a workhorse for 10 yrs or better.

[amazing80]

the chron says Ben Tate is nursing a toe injury, I assume this is why the splits are so wacky and why Tate has been ineffective....hopefully he gets better soon (Foster can keep this pace up until the bye but then he needs to be able to take it easy until playoff time) so Tate has a few weeks to heal up

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

The Texans have a 3 yr window to win a SB. If giving Foster the ball 350-400 times a yr during this period helps win a SB. Then count me in the give him the d**n ball crowd.

Earl was productive for 6 yrs with a heavy workload and a much more violent running style. Emmitt had a similar running style as Foster (They very rarely take direct hits) and was a workhorse for 10 yrs or better.

When your knees are already swelling from the beginning of the season and your knee remains an issue as demonstrated by the injury reports, you don't necessarily need to take direct hits to get worse......just gross numbers of REPETITION which alone can lead to "overuse knee syndromes" leading to damage of muscle, tendon, cartilage, bone, ligament, or any combination thereof. And this is not to even mention the not uncommon dreaded "compensation" injury. And if not rested overuse syndromes can result in conditions requiring surgery. When we're dealing with all these one year high carry numbers historically, we need to keep in mind that these account for regular season numbers only. Most of the high carry RBs may have never reached the postseason with their teams in those specific years of record high carries despite their numbers, let alone ever reached the Super Bowl..........reaching the Super Bowl would require substantial additional numbers and additional wear and tear.........substantial numbers that will need to be added to Foster's season carries should we be fortunate enough to make the Super Bowl. So many people here are saying Hell with next year, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, we're only concerned with making the Super Bowl THIS YEAR. You may want to stop and think of the not so unreal possibility of Foster not making it through to the postseason let alone to the Super Bowl, if the present course remains unchanged. But I guess there's always next year.

[Fico]

Carries are not the causation for production decline although they correlate strongly. The type and the amount of hits taken is the actual cause of the wear and tear that causes the steep decline.

Look at those backs that carried the ball in that volume, almost all of them are backs that were bangers. None of them were gliders that avoided hits like Foster does.

I also think extrapolating his carries after 4 games for a full season is a pointless task. Lets take a look at his carry numbers again at the halfway mark. More importantly lets keep in mind that Foster's running style negates some of the correlation between carries and decline in production.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

When your knees are already swelling from the beginning of the season and your knee remains an issue as demonstrated by the injury reports, you don't necessarily need to take direct hits to get worse......just repetition which can lead to "overuse knee syndromes" leading to damage of muscle, tendon, cartilage, bone, ligament, or any combination thereof. And this is not to even mention the not uncommon dreaded "compensation" injury. And if not rested overuse syndromes can to conditions requiring surgery. When we're dealing with all these one year high carry numbers historically, we need to keep in mind that these account for regular season numbers only. Most of the high carry RBs may have never reached the postseason with their teams in those specific years of record high carries despite their numbers, let alone ever reached the Super Bowl..........reaching the Super Bowl would require substantial additional numbers and additional wear and tear.........substantial numbers that will need to be added to Foster's season carries should we be fortunate enough to make the Super Bowl. So many people here are saying Hell with next year, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, we're only concerned with making the Super Bowl THIS YEAR. You may want to stop and think of the not so unreal possibility of Foster not making it through to the postseason let alone to the Super Bowl, if the present course remains unchanged. But I guess there's always next year.

I forgot about the knee problems. That is somewhat of a gamechanger for me. They should atleast monitor Fosters carries more closely. Do you think Gary will take this into consideration? I dont.

With that said I belive that this yr is the best chance the Texans have to make the SB, so you've got to ride your horse. If Foster goes down, then Tate will have to step up. Tate is a luxury that the Texans probably will not have next yr. He's the reason I would ride Foster hard this yr.

Plus to achieve greatness sometimes you have to accept the risk and move forward. I'm not worried about Fosters workload at this point because as the season wears on his carries should get reduced at some point without Gary having to make a conscious effort to do so.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

I forgot about the knee problems. That is somewhat of a gamechanger for me. They should atleast monitor Fosters carries more closely. Do you think Gary will take this into consideration? I dont.

With that said I belive that this yr is the best chance the Texans have to make the SB, so you've got to ride your horse. If Foster goes down, then Tate will have to step up. Tate is a luxury that the Texans probably will not have next yr. He's the reason I would ride Foster hard this yr.

Plus to achieve greatness sometimes you have to accept the risk and move forward. I'm not worried about Fosters workload at this point because as the season wears on his carries should get reduced at some point without Gary having to make a conscious effort to do so.

That luxury can disappear very quickly. Tate's "toe issue" has me very concerned. Why the Texans have been reluctant to characterize his injury further has me very concerned, until I hear otherwise, that he may be dealing with TURF TOE.

[noxiousdog]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Earl was productive for 6 yrs with a heavy workload and a much more violent running style. Emmitt had a similar running style as Foster (They very rarely take direct hits) and was a workhorse for 10 yrs or better.

Emmitt broke 370 twice. The second time his ypc were 4.7. After that, they never were better than 4.2.

Regardless, these things can't be based on individuals. It's only a guess of what might happen and probability isn't on Foster's side with that many carries.

I don't have any problem with doing it out of necessity. I just don't understand the reasoning when Tate was running well in the first two games and Forsett is available as well. We're only talking about taking 5 plays per game away.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Tate did not practice today. No sightings reported. Hopefully, he's not in a boot.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Not the best news.

Houston Texans Houston Texans ‏@HoustonTexans

Kubiak on RB Ben Tate (toe): "If he looks fine (Saturday), then we'll be back to our normal deal...We'll see where Ben's at on Saturday." 3hrs

[CloakNNNdagger]

(on RB Ben Tate’s status ) “I think so. I think if we asked Ben (Tate) to do something today he would’ve done it. I would say the same thing tomorrow but we are going to hold him. We are going to get (RB) Justin (Forsett) ready to go. Then I think what we do Saturday is we let (RB) Ben (Tate) go and if he looks fine, then we’re back to our normal deal. I think the key is that Justin gets the reps because Ben is ready to play. He knows what he’s doing. That’s kind of the way we practiced today. We’ll see where Ben is at on Saturday.”

link

[drunkcookie]

It has only been four games, a quarter of the season, so I can't say that I'm "concerned", but for sure paying attention... Now if it were at the halfway mark and Foster was pacing 400+ that would have me concerned for sure...


I looked up Foster's carries from last year and picked a four-game stretch somewhere in the middle of the season. I then averaged his carries per game for those four games. If you were to apply that average to 16 games, Foster would have been pacing for 368 carries.. of course he finished with 278, almost 100 less than that four-game average would suggest if applied to 16 games... So i guess my point is his carries can be trimmed, whether intentionally or by the design of this system and team that had him carry it only 278 times last season...

[HJam72]

I don't really think Foster will get 400 carries, but what worries me is that Kubiak seems to think that would be perfectly fine....and I don't.

[CloakNNNdagger]

delete

[DocBar]

Bludgeon opponents for 3 quarters with our starters the treat the 4th quarter like preseason game 4. That should make everyone happy.