Are we overusing Foster?

[Mr teX]

With Tate spelling him at least 10-15 reps a game, i say no. you know how it is with rbs..once they hit 30, it's pretty much over. He just signed a new deal & we should get all we can out of him before he does hit the big 3-0.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Mr teX

With Tate spelling him at least 10-15 reps a game, i say no. you know how it is with rbs..once they hit 30, it's pretty much over. He just signed a new deal & we should get all we can out of him before he does hit the big 3-0.

But that's just it. It's not just about age, it's also about carries. Over the past decade or so, some (not all) running backs that have over about 375 carries in a season have problems the next season and some are finished.

In 2005, it was Shaun Alexander. Chris Johnson only got up to 358 carries in 2009, but his average has been steadily dropping since then. Larry Johnson got 416 carries in 2006, and he was broken down by the time they met the Colts in the playoffs -- a team he should have run over but he was out of gas. Edgerrin James got 387 carries in 2000 and broke the next year. He did come back. Terrell Davis got 392 carries in 1998 and that was pretty much the end of his career. Jamaal Anderson got 410 carries in 1998 and that was it for him.

[PapaL]

Originally Posted by Corrosion

Its PapaL .... We all know he's crazy.

Touché!
Must spread rep blah blah blah

[NBT]

Number of carries will take care of itself. I am just grateful we have the two best running backs in the NFL. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[TimeKiller]

I think so but I saw a graphic, I think it was like "Keys to the game" or something that said the Texans want to get 30 run plays in. If it's Foster 20, Tate 10, scraps to Forsett, I'm all about it. Foster getting 30 carries a game? Probably means we're torching a defense and winning handily, so in this instance I'd like to see Tate and Forsett picking up more slack than that. Arian is a horse and can handle 30 reps but there's no reason to make him do that in a blowout (or to expect he'll be running 30 more carries next weekend).

I'm kind of in the middle.

[noxiousdog]

Originally Posted by Football Outsiders: 2012

A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson. ... On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries and no postseason appearance will see their total rushing yardage decline by 15 percent the following year and their yards per carry decline by two percent. The average running back with 370 or more regular-season carries, or 390 including the postseason, will see their rushing yardage decline by 35 percent, and their yards per carry decline by eight percent.

That being said, I think it's more a circumstance of the first two weeks and if we continue to have such run heavy performances, he won't be playing much at all at the end of the year.

[SteveSlaton20]

Originally Posted by Rey

I don't think Foster is overused but I would like to see Tate get a few more carries.

this. i would like to see tate more on 3rd downs.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Alan Burge brings up the question once again.

Texans need to watch Foster's workload

[HJam72]

Was looking for my original post in this thread, but apparently I didn't post. I believe I did vote no, but I have to change my opinion at this point. Obviously, he is going week to week without showing that it's hurting him any, but I see what this does to RBs over the course of a year. Foster does a great job of avoiding tough hits, but I don't want to wear him out just hoping that that will save him. We get into the postseason and then we do whatever it takes to win. I don't care, hand him the ball 55 times in a game (I know that's very unlikely)--whatever works, if it's necessary--but that's in the playoffs.

Interesting to know, from the link the Doc posted, that Earl Campbell never reached 400 carries...

[drs23]

Originally Posted by HJam72

Was looking for my original post in this thread, but apparently I didn't post. I believe I did vote no, but I have to change my opinion at this point. Obviously, he is going week to week without showing that it's hurting him any, but I see what this does to RBs over the course of a year. Foster does a great job of avoiding tough hits, but I don't want to wear him out just hoping that that will save him. We get into the postseason and then we do whatever it takes to win. I don't care, hand him the ball 55 times in a game (I know that's very unlikely)--whatever works, if it's necessary--but that's in the playoffs.

Interesting to know, from the link the Doc posted, that Earl Campbell never reached 400 carries...

True but you know it was because of their totally different running styles. Earl the Road Grader as opposed to Arian the Glide -N- Slide guy. Like you said, no one ever seems to get a clean shot at him. He's just there and gone.

[rolyat93]

This is what happens when you get big leads, you run the ball. It really sucks that we're winning so much, it's really tearing me up.

[Lucky]

Foster is averaging 29 touches per game. That's OK for a 3 game stretch. Not OK over the course of the season. Tate needs to get more carries.

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Foster is averaging 29 touches per game. That's OK for a 3 game stretch. Not OK over the course of the season. Tate needs to get more carries.

Especially since Foster is already having problems with knee swelling.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Foster is averaging 29 touches per game. That's OK for a 3 game stretch. Not OK over the course of the season. Tate needs to get more carries.

I'd like Forsett to see the ball a few times, too.

[EVOLVIST]

Originally Posted by Vinny

1st of all, we've only played chumps, so Foster's carries (extrapolating them forward) are out of kilter. We won't be ahead by 20 points and playing the Beevis and Butthead of quarterbacks going forward (anyone else notice that Gabbert kinda looks like a cross between Butthead and Kirk Douglas?). Answering the thread question directly is simple....yesterday told me that we will be using Tate plenty. I thought he (Kubiak) rotated him in early and often.

But see, "early and often" is what I believe to be the problem. Tate doesn't need those carries early in the game - or through three quarters. You don't maximize Foster's carries that way and he doesn't get into the proper rhythm...thus his yards per carry (his effectiveness) is down - even going up against "chumps."

Now, against Denver, the Texans set up the run with the pass, which I advocated going into the game, since everyone's going to key on Foster. It worked well for them
That being the case - and if they keep that trend - then Foster's carries for the rest of the season should look like they did in Denver. The difference is, Tate shouldn't really come in unless Foster is gassed from a big run. Otherwise, let's see more of Tate primarily as the guy who runs out the clock in the 4th quarter, maximizing his particular skill set as the guy who picks up those tough yards that helps win games.

There is no reason Foster should be getting chipped hard for those 2 and 3 yards a carry with 8 men in the box to close out the game. Those too many carries for Foster come way at the end of the game where he has no room to glide

[Wolf6151]

I don't know that we're overusing Foster so much as we are under utilizing Tate. The NFL season is a long one and I'd really like to have Foster rested and ready by the time the playoffs come around. I'd also like for the Texans to be showcasing Tate for a possible trade at the end of the season. Tate is a weapon that we need to use.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by Wolf6151

Tate is a weapon that we need to use.

That fumble against the Broncos didn't help. But, I just don't understand Kubiak's kneejerk reaction of burying a guy on the bench after a fumble. It's not like Tate wouldn't be more cognizant about ball security after the fumble. How often do runners fumble twice in a game? Tate has to be sent out regardless. Because if your plan is to run the ball 35-40 carries/game (which is great), you've got to spread the touches around.

[A time to chill]

Originally Posted by Lucky

That fumble against the Broncos didn't help. But, I just don't understand Kubiak's kneejerk reaction of burying a guy on the bench after a fumble. It's not like Tate wouldn't be more cognizant about ball security after the fumble. How often do runners fumble twice in a game? Tate has to be sent out regardless. Because if your plan is to run the ball 35-40 carries/game (which is great), you've got to spread the touches around.

I don't disagree with Kubiak benching Tate after that fumble. He's sending a message that turnovers will not be tolerated.

Today I expect both Tate and Foster to have a monster game against the Titan's weak run defense, so much so that I'm starting Tate as a flex option in my fantasy league. I think the Texans are going to do to the Titans what they did against the Jaguars...drain clock on offense through the run game. I don't think there will be any long bombs from Schaub to Johnson this week.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by Lucky

That fumble against the Broncos didn't help. But, I just don't understand Kubiak's kneejerk reaction of burying a guy on the bench after a fumble. It's not like Tate wouldn't be more cognizant about ball security after the fumble. How often do runners fumble twice in a game? Tate has to be sent out regardless. Because if your plan is to run the ball 35-40 carries/game (which is great), you've got to spread the touches around.

It's not just about that game.

Tate has not been the most secure ball carrier and if he's going to get late carries in a game he needs to have it ingrained in his head that ball security is the most important thing.

If we're in a one score game in the play offs ( or superbowl) and Tate fumbles, that could cost us the game.

If you throw Tate back in there he's not fully feeling the magnitude if his mistake. If he knows that if he fumbles and will be put back in
regardless he's not as dialed in to ball protection.

With him sitting on that sideline afterward and seeing Denver make that comeback I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing any late game fumbles from him for a while unless a defender just makes a phenomenal play.

I can almost guarantee kubiak and/or Harris went to tate after the game and explained that they will need him for the rest of the season but fumbling the ball like that just won't be tolerated.

[hradhak]

I would love to see Tate get more carries. I think Tate needs to figure out how to protect the ball down the stretch and the only way to do that is get him more reps, but punish him if starts fumbling. I think the answer is sit him and bring in Forsett in. All our RBs need reps in this system, and in games where we have a big lead, let the other RBs get reps. It's a long season, and we need everyone healthy.