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Old 09-19-2012   #81
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwayshauntay View Post
Your numbers are off. Including sacks (Smith has been sacked two times total in 1st halves), the 49ers have had 37 1st half pass attempts so far this season. Care to recalculate?
ESPN shows the 49ers are 19 for 31 in pass attempts in the first half. I'm not including sacks if you would have paid attention to my Texans first half statistics, but even if you added in the 2 sacks it still wouldn't equal to 37. So if you have more accurate stats you need to take that up with ESPN. Therefore, no recalculations needed on my end. If you're going to try to correct someone you may want to try to post a link.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_...rancisco-49ers
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Old 09-19-2012   #82
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

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Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
Therefore, no recalculations needed on my end. If you're going to try to correct someone you may want to try to post a link.
For that matter, he should do his own calculations.
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Old 09-19-2012   #83
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
ESPN shows the 49ers are 19 for 31 in pass attempts in the first half. I'm not including sacks if you would have paid attention to my Texans first half statistics, but even if you added in the 2 sacks it still wouldn't equal to 37. So if you have more accurate stats you need to take that up with ESPN. Therefore, no recalculations needed on my end. If you're going to try to correct someone you may want to try to post a link.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_...rancisco-49ers
Forget ESPN. Just look at the play by play.

26 runs/(26 runs + 37 pass plays including sacks) = 41.3% of the 49ers plays in the 1st half have been runs

Texans in 1st halves this season have had 41.8% running plays.

Just a reminder that YOU brought up the 49ers' run/pass ratio in 1st halves, not me.
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Old 09-19-2012   #84
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwayshauntay View Post
Forget ESPN. Just look at the play by play.

26 runs/(26 runs + 37 pass plays including sacks) = 41.3% of the 49ers plays in the 1st half have been runs

Texans in 1st halves this season have had 41.8% running plays.

Just a reminder that YOU brought up the 49ers' run/pass ratio in 1st halves, not me.
I'm looking at the raw numbers. It's subjective by looking at those 4 missing plays that you're including in your passing numbers because who's to say they weren't designed QB draws? I'm taking all of that out of the equation and simply including Attempts. Both teams have 2 first half sacks so eliminate that as well and it's a much easier comparison with no judgment involved. And you still have provided no link as to where you're pulling this from.

Even with your flawed subjective stats you see where the Texans pass the ball more in the first half clearly. Far cry from a run heavy "ground and pound" team.
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Old 09-19-2012   #85
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

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Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
I'm looking at the raw numbers. It's objective by looking at those 4 missing plays that you're including in your passing numbers because who's to say they weren't designed QB draws? I'm taking all of that out of the equation and simply including Attempts. Both teams have 2 first half sacks so eliminate that as well and it's a much easier comparison with no judgment involved. And you still have provided no link as to where you're pulling this from.

Even with your flawed objective stats you see where the Texans pass the ball more in the first half clearly. Far cry from a run heavy "ground and pound" team.
links to play by play i used to chase down your red herring:
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1209090gnb.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1209160sfo.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1209090htx.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1209160jax.htm
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Old 09-19-2012   #86
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Grid said it best:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid View Post
We could run the ball 100 times in every game this season, and would still be a "balanced" team.

That may sound silly..but it is kinda a "do as I say, not as I do" scenario. Our philosophy, or identity, is balance. We can pass the ball just as well as we can run the ball. But running the ball is usually a better option for us because we have the lead, and running it is both safer, and runs the clock out.

The reason we are a balanced team is not because we strictly adhere to having an equal amount of running and passing plays every game. We are balanced because we will either run it, or pass it, and do either one equally well. It all depends on what is more strategically viable in that game.
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Old 09-19-2012   #87
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

So let's see here...... You say that San Francisco has run 37 pass plays in the first half. Alex Smith has 31 attempts and been sacked twice. That's 33 plays. Let's just say that Smith dropped back to pass once and took off to run since he has 1 carry for 5 yards in the first half this year. That still leaves 34 pass plays. Where are these 3 magical passing plays that are missing?
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Old 09-19-2012   #88
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Grid said it best:
I agree, and I'm not saying we're run heavy or pass heavy. The thing I love about the Texans is we do have the ability to do both and do them effectively. Schaub has shown on multiple occasions he can win putting the ball in the air 40 plus times. There are some games this year where he'll probably have to do it and I have complete confidence in him. My point was against this notion that we're some 1970's reincarnation of a team that's pounding away at people all game. That's simply not true. We have a similar blueprint to the old Broncos team that won 2 Super Bowls. They exemplified balance.
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Old 09-20-2012   #89
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

IMO, we should take out all the short passes (dink-and-dunks) to compare the phillosophy of a team.

A team may run the spread and throw a bunch of short passes that are just extension of the run game should not be considered as a pass-oriented team.
If anything, it's in name only.

For example, read this from the Falcons forums.
Their fans want the team to move to a WCO because they are tired of the dink-and-dunks in their passing game:



Next, look at these data that shows Schaub with 21.6% on deep attempts last year, while Yates was at 21.7%

Compare that with Brady 18.6%, Cutler 18.2%, and Brees at 17.6%, and you can see that the distinction between them and us becoming very blurry.

There are a host of other names on that list that should be familiar.

Also, there are plenty of teams that ran the WCO (even though everything aren't equal) like the Packers, the Eagles, the Niners, the Chiefs, the Cardinals, the Browns, and of course the Redskins.

Turner's Bears offense is also derived from the WCO as many other in the league today.

The Colts are now running the WCO; so do the Raiders.

It seems that at least half the league is running the WCO, so how can we say that the Texans are a run-first team?

And then many of the spread teams the spread are dinking-and-dunking plenty.
Who's to say that we're lacking in the passing game as compared to them?
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Old 09-20-2012   #90
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

And here's a half-way extensive study that I made, using Game Rewind with the according game books for the first two games:

Texans:

First game:
13 running plays.
19 pass attempts + 1 QB scramble + 2 sacks = 22 passing plays

Second game:
19 running plays
24 passing plays.

Total 32 run plays, and 46 pass plays
(32/78= 41.03%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #91
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Next, I will show the teams with a higher rushing attempt percentage than us.

Cardinals:
11 rushes + 1 reverse = 12 run plays
17 pass plays

11 rushes + 1 QB sneak + 1 designed QB draw + 1 wildcat run by Patrick Peterson = 14 run plays
15 pass attempts + 1 sack + 1 scramble = 17 pass plays

Total 26 run plays, 34 pass plays
(43.33%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #92
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Bills:

9 run plays
12 pass attempts + 1 scramble = 13 pass plays
(I do not count a kneel down to end the half).

15 run plays
12 pass attempts + 3 scrambles = 15 pass plays
(Another kneel down that does not count.)

Total 24 run plays, 28 pass plays (46.15%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #93
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Broncos:

15 runs (including a confusion on hand-off exchange that the QB ended up keeping the ball).
19 pass attempts + 1 sack = 20 pass plays

12 runs.
14 pass attempts + 2 sacks + 1 scramble = 17 pass plays

Total 27 run plays, 37 pass plays (42.19%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #94
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Lions:

16 runs
16 pass attempts
1 kneel down that does not count

13 runs
24 passes

Total 29 runs, 40 pass plays (42.02%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #95
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Jacksonville

17 runs
16 pass attempts + 2 scrambles = 18 pass plays

9 runs
11 pass attempts + 1 scramble+ 2 sacks = 14 pass plays.

Total 26 runs, 32 pass plays (44.83%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #96
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Dolphins

15 runs
18 pass attempts + 1 sack = 19 pass plays
One kneel down that does not count.

Note - There's also a QB fumble as he tripped on his O-lineman.
It is unclear how the play will develop from the Offset I formation.
I did not include this play.

15 runs + 1 designed QB run (for a TD by Tannerhill)
19 pass attempts + 1 sack + 1 scramble = 21 pass plays
Another kneel down that does not count.

Total 31 runs, 40 pass plays (43.66%)
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Old 09-20-2012   #97
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Other teams that I noted so far:

Chiefs 25-32 (43.86%)

Vikings 26-26 (50%)

Pats 29-30 (49.15%)

Jets 32-32 (50%)

Steelers 28-34 (45.16%)

Seahawks 26-28 (48.15%)

Niners 25-34 (42.37%)

Redskins 32-28 (51.72%)

I think there are a few more, but those are enough to show that the Texans have not been run-first like many people think.
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Old 09-20-2012   #98
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

I don't care if we designate the Texans as a run-first or pass-first team; all I know is that the team's ability to run sets up the pass AND vice versa. I absolutely LOVED the playcalling to start the Jaguars game. IIRC, it was 5 straight play-actions that got us a chunk of yardage. We didn't get a huge play downfield due to their almost-prevent defense, but it's awesome cheering for a team that is balanced enough to be able to beat you both on the ground and in the air.
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Old 09-20-2012   #99
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

We run a lot when we have a lead. Kubiak likes to control the clock, which is effective in many ways and a lot of people don't seem to understand that.

He generally likes to run more anyway, but we start out doing whatever he thinks will work.

We are not (necessarily) a run first team; we are a run LAST team. Score any way you can, get a lead, and then run and burn clock (which doesn't necessarily negate scoring more).
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Old 09-21-2012   #100
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

I personally don't care how we win. If we win then we win. In 2002 the Texans were outgained 422-47, the fewest yards ever by a winning team in NFL history against Pittsburgh and won 24-6. Wasn't pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but I was still happy that day.

The MO from Kubiak is clear in my view. He loves to attack early and try to jump out on teams to get a lead. It's served us pretty well the last 18 games. If we're running for 150-200 yards in any game then I'd say there's a good chance we got out to an early lead. I liken it to a basketball team like Duke who will full court press early in games to get out to a big league, and then start to sit back in a half court defense in the 2nd half half. But Duke has it in them to keep the pressure up all game just like we have that capability. These next 5 games will show that. Most of these games are going to be close and Schaub will be a much bigger factor.
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