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Old 11-06-2005   #1
Historyhorn
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Default How Long In the Desert?

I was curious to poll the resident experts to get a feel on how long everyone thinks this team will be in the desert. By the desert, how long before the first playoff appearance?

It's fairly obvious with the way the current season is going, we are not as close to that level as we once thought even a couple of months ago. Will it be a three or five year plan with some new leadership at key positions?

When I evaluate NFL teams and their worthiness for the playoffs, I usually look at three things:

Defense
O-line
Coaching

While our defense is not completely awful, there have been some reaches in the draft and some questionable trades and personnel moves of late. We're a few talented players away here.

The O-line really does not need to be disucssed other than to say that the play here is the primary culprit for our putrid state right now. The gel process, and letting the unit develop company lines have shown to be the BS that many believed they were prior to the season when we made no moves in this area.

Finally, coaching. I'm not a Capers hater. He did some good things at Carolina and got them into the playoffs in their second year, but his overall record in the NFL is 47-72. I'm not sure that's gonna put him in with the elite coaches in the league.

So all of that considered, how long before we reach the promised land? Are we closer than I feel we are? I'm thinking three years on the low side and more likely a five year wait.

Go Texans
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Old 11-06-2005   #2
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Teams can and do turn things around in just a year. There are so many variables with the Texans though. What about the QB position?

I do believe now we will see a new coach here next year and that will mean new system, new coaching staff.

I dunno. I think a change might do them good.
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Old 11-07-2005   #3
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The new coaching staff is an obvious. The QB position we are in good shape as long as we can keep Carr healthy. It is strange how everyone is comparing him to Archie Manning (a great QB). Yeah Carr is not great yet, but he is very talented, but does not have the talent around him to win. You can look at any QB and they all win due to the fact that they have a team built around them.
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Old 11-07-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach C.
It is strange how everyone is comparing him to Archie Manning (a great QB). Yeah Carr is not great yet, but he is very talented, but does not have the talent around him to win.
Yeah, I think that's total balony by overzealous fanboys. Sorry, but Carr is no where near Archie Manning yet. I'm a total Carr supporter, but c'mon! It's not like Carr can consistently put up 250 yards passing and more than 2 TDs a game. I can't even remember the last time we put up more than 21 points in a game! If he were an Archie Manning, his position as our #1 QB wouldn't even be questioned.

Right now Carr is no Archie Manning. Not even close.
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Old 11-07-2005   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach C.
Archie Manning (a great QB). .
That's not the Archie I remember. Manning was a great college QB but "great" NFL QB's don't throw more interceptions than touchdowns in 16 of their 18 years in the league, no matter how terrible the cast of characters are around him. Manning was athletic, popular, and strong armed, but honestly he was an average NFL quarterback who had the misfortune to play on bad teams most of his career. Yeah, but if he had better players around him ... I know.. I know. If. The imagery of Manning scrambling to get away from pass rushers is legendary in NFL Films and blooper reels. If he isn't the poster boy for futility at quarterback in the NFL, I'd like to know who is. Hmmm... David Carr anyone? Kindred spirits for sure.

Coincidentally, Archie and David Carr have exactly the same INT/TD numbers over the first three years of their careers 34/42.
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Old 11-07-2005   #6
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Default Carr

I don't know much about the comparisons (how can you compare eras, teams they played on, and the effect that having the name "Archie" can have on your life?), but I do know that the absolute key to every successful football team is a quality quarterback. He is the one man every offensive play passes through.

In David Carr we have a quality quarterback. Considering what he has been through in the past three and a half seasons and how he has responded, I think it's safe to say that he can be as good as anyone if he remains healthy (by now his skin must be leather and his bones iron) and is surrounded by a solid team.

If things work out with picks and health and every other factor, we could be 8-8 next year and playoff bound in 2007.

Then again, we can just as easily be 0-16 and 0-16.

... and that's why they play the games.

-Billy
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Old 11-07-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Historyhorn
I was curious to poll the resident experts to get a feel on how long everyone thinks this team will be in the desert. By the desert, how long before the first playoff appearance?...
I'm thinking three years on the low side and more likely a five year wait.
Go Texans
I almost lost the original question on this thread as everyone seemed to veer off on Carr. On the optimistic side,and given the fact that Carr is here to stay at least for another year or more, a new head coach/staff/gm could turn this around in a couple of years. We only need to add a few more folks to have an effective offensive line, a little more help on defense, some varied play calling, a coach who wants to be ahead in the fourth quarter as opposed to "close", a gm who will draft/acquire players a bit better than Riley caliber, a QB coach to retrain Carr and voila! Playoff bound. See? Piece of cake.
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Old 11-07-2005   #8
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I would say we make the playoffs about 2 years after we park our Carr in the bench garage, or better yet, sell it 'As is' to some other NFL smuck as a Used Carr.
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Old 11-07-2005   #9
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next year if we get Vince Young ......
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Old 11-07-2005   #10
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We have to walk before we can run. This franchise needs to have a winning season first and have a winning streak longer than two games.

I'm in it for the long haul. Going into this season, I thought I was being realistic to hope for an 8-8 season (optimistic 9-7).

Now it's back to the drawing board, and I think it'll probably be 2007 before we sniff the playoffs (hopefully), IMO.

Not saying that it can't happen next year (anything's possible), but I don't think that would be realistic expectations.
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Old 11-07-2005   #11
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Default

I still think we are a couple years away from the playoffs, but then again we've only been building this team for four years while most other teams have been doing so for decades. I personally did not see us as a playoff-caliber team before this season started. Our team definitely had some solid pieces to build on but at the same time we definiitely have some holes to fill. The Chargers were 3-13 a couple years ago and had the #1 pick in the draft. Eli refused to go to that team because he didn't think they had a chance to win, but the next year they were 12-4 and back in the playoffs. All it takes is a couple changes and have the team click at the right time and you never know what can happen in the coming seasons. That is why they play the game.
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Old 11-07-2005   #12
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I'm not sure the Chargers comparison is valid with respect to our Texans, though it may be reality with a new coaching staff.

Remember the Chargers brought in Marty and they were terrible his first year there. They had some talent and some key pieces (LT, Brees, some talent on the O-line, some decent talent up and down the defense). They then turned that around completely the next year. They had a new O-line coach who also is doing some really good things in Miami this year.

I think we stick with Carr for another year or two and see what he can do with a competent O-line. Davis or Wells are passable at RB. We probably could use another WR that can make some plays. Add some talent and playmaking abilities on the defensive side and this is a team that can contend for a playoff spot two years from now with the right scheme. It'll take a shrewd couple of drafts and some wise allocation of free agent money, but it's possible.

Go Texans
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Old 11-07-2005   #13
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Two years ago people had written off Drew Brees as a failure too and he made the Pro Bowl last season. I think if we upgrade the OL, make a couple personnel changes on defense and then change the offensive and defensive systems we give ourselves a good chance to be that Cinderella team next year.
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Old 11-07-2005   #14
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the Chargers coincidentally drafted Brees replacement, Rivers. And did so blatently as Brees replacement. Surprisingly Brees turned his playing up a notch and became a better QB. Now who is Carrs competition for the starting spot..........no one. No wonder he isn't real worried about how good or bad he plays.
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Old 11-07-2005   #15
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I'll agree with that. Bring in Doug Flutie!!!!!
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Old 11-07-2005   #16
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The right coaches and good drafting....2 years max to the playoffs, might even see it next season if things tumble right.
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