rmartin65's Way Too Early Mock

[badboy]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

While I agree with you on both points. If KJ stinks against much better QB's, no amount of 76's screenshots are going to save him.

I gree with you also about letting the high $$$$ vets go. But the 3-4 needs 5-6 quality LB's. Think about the NYG's Taylor/Carson/Reasons/Banks the best LB corps other than the 70's Steelers. Speaking of the Steelers they keep their LB's core together until they get to old and usually train the young guys so that they are ready when the old guys start losing it. I see the Texans doing this with Mercilus. You dont let young double digit sack guys like Barwin walk. Especially when you can make cap room for them by cutting guys that are replaceable like A.Smith/KJ/W.Smith. Whose replacements have already been drafted.

Communication between the LB's is critical in 3-4. Barwin/Cushing/Watt are going to be the leaders, tone setters of an intense young defense for yrs to come in the front 7. With JoJo and Manning leading the back end. The Texans finally have speed at all positions on defense. (Speed kills)

I think new CBA is changing way teams have created rosters. Payroll getting into the NBA range.. we will see Texans only keeping players with reasonable contracts. You may find an AJ type who will get re-done but not more than a few on roster. I agree with your premise but posters need to start identifying money being saved (as you did) & being spent on what player.

For example, per rotoworld A. Smith gets $5.5m & Wade Smith $2m, KJ gets $700K= $8.2m to re-sign one of your starters. Which one? Schaub 2012 should get apprx $7.5m with all bonuses. If he has another 4,000 yard year, he should get $12-15m offered as UFA. That's another $5- 7million. So let's give him $ from cutting or trading for picks Smiths & KJ. He's locked in.. but wait, what happens in 2013 when CAP is still about $123m but his escalator kicks in? Uh oh.

Let's do the smart thing as others have suggested and re-sign Cush one year early & use the Ryans, Briesel and AJ's renegotiated savings.

We cut Shaun Cody because someone Fangupo, Mitchell, etc steps up. That's $2m.

Barwin's money comes from......? If he gets 14+ sacks and he should, he will be ducking offers like a hail storm. For a guy earning less than $600K won't an offer for $8million or more as an FA be hard to turn down?

Now comes the most VIP of them all.....Duane Brown. $2m 2012 & many thought he had pro bowl season. If he does it again and he should, I wonder what kind of deal his agent will want? A 27 YOA (August) pro bowl type LT? Think he could get $12-15m? No history of injury..hmm.

THis is why I'm hoping Schaub takes us to Super Bowl & leaves with Yates our starter 2013. Sign Brown and let Mercilus replace Barwin 2013. Sign Cush now if you can but be ready to replace him if he says no.

I am as hopeful as you but reality comes knocking on my door. If a poster says "so and so will sign" okay but address all these players not just the one you are supporting.

ps: OH, btw the 3-4 did very well last season with Barwin, Reed and Braman. 5-6 OLBs= luxury.
Enjoying the debate as always...

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

I like Ryan Swope in college, but I don't know if he has the speed to warrant a 2nd round pick in the NFL. I'm not sure what his 40 time is like, but his game speed seems kind of slow to me.

I think he would be best suited as a slot receiver in the NFL. A lot of his yards come from misdirection or motion plays off the line, and I can't ever recall seeing him get over the top and beat both the CB and a safety to go deep. I think his value will be in his ability to make cuts to create space and his willingness to go over the middle. He has taken quite a few big hits from defenders, but always gets up and keeps moving.

I am concerned with A&M's coaching after Jeff Fuller fell off. He had injuries but sao do other players who recover well. Defensive players also seemed to suffer. QB went high but he also seemed to regress last season for A&M

[rmartin65]

UCLA ILB Patrick Larimore (my 4th round pick) just retired due to 2 concussions suffered in the past 6 weeks. Tough blow for the UCLA defense, and this young man, I wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

[Wolf6151]

Originally Posted by rmartin65

UCLA ILB Patrick Larimore (my 4th round pick) just retired due to 2 concussions suffered in the past 6 weeks. Tough blow for the UCLA defense, and this young man, I wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

Retired? As in permanently out of the game? That sucks, I had him in the 4th round of my latest mock as well. Best of luck to him in the future, where ever it may lead him.

[rmartin65]

I feel a bit silly re-doing a mock since no college football has been played, but school has not picked up yet, and I am bored. Have at it.

Round 1- Iowa TE CJ Fiedorowicz, 6’7”, 265 lbs
I am not changing this. While Graham looks solid thus far in pre-season ball, he has still not proven anything in a real game. Furthermore, Fiedo brings a new element to the Texans’ TE corps- a truly effective blocker. OD and Graham are serviceable, but I think that Kubiak and Smith are still looking for that Bruener-type TE. Fiedo can block at that level, and be a pass catching threat to boot. I really think that this guy can turn out to be the next Gronk. Another TE to watch out for is Michigan State’s Dion Sims. A big player (6’6” 280), Sims displays incredible athleticism. However, he has had injury problems and at least one legal incident. Still, a heck of a talent who could rise up the boards.

Round 2- Wisconsin OT Ricky Wagner, 6’6” 320 lbs
Not to knee-jerk or anything, but the RT spot looks like it could stand some more talent. I am not saying that Wagner will immediately take the starting job, but he should be part of a great training camp battle. To fit in the Texans’ scheme he will need to drop some weight, but the talent is there.

Round 3- Wisconsin ILB Chris Borland, 5’11” 250 lbs
Staying in the Big 10, I am a huge fan of Borland. He is explosive, physical, and gets to the football. While he does lack ideal height/length, he is athletic enough and smart enough to overcome such a deficiency. He has struggled with injuries in the past, so if he gets injured again I see him returning to school. Another ILB to watch is Michigan State’s Max Bullough. Bullough is a better prospect than Borland, and, should he declare, could go in round 2. Definitely a player to keep an eye on.

Round 4- Duke QB Sean Renfree, 6’4” 225 lbs
Renfree has big time potential. He is prototypical size, has a prototypical arm, and is being tutored by the same guy who worked with the Manning’s. While definitely still a work in progress, Renfree has the potential to mature into a top-notch NFL QB. At the very least, Renfree should turn into a serviceable backup, which is a value chip to have.

Round 5- Colorado FS/SS Ray Polk, 6’ 205 lbs
Polk is an ex-runningback turned defensive back. Polk can really deliver some blows on the ballcarriers, but he needs to do a better job wrapping the guy up. Furthermore, his lack of experience on the defensive side of the ball shows- he does not play the ball very well in the air. So while he plays FS for Colorado, I think he plays SS in the NFL. He could become our replacement to Quin.

Round 6- Eastern Kentucky WR Tyrone Goard, 6’3” 195 lbs
Let me just say this- I am happy with the young potential we have at receiver. However, it is still unproven. Goard is a boom/bust type player who is well worth the risk here in the 6th. A large player who can box-out with the best of them, Goard is definitely a man amongst boys at EKU

Round 7- Kansas OLB Toben Opurum, 6’1” 250 lbs
I like Opurum’s potential as a pass rusher, so this pick remains.

Upon completion of this mock, the one thing that I am uncomfortable with is the lack of NT. I don’t want to spend a high pick on one, since Cody and Mitchell have performed admirably and Fangupo looks solid, but I still think a mid to late rounder is worth looking at. I just don’t have that guy on my radar yet.

[badboy]

65 first three make me think I'm in heaven. I have Fiedo lower but not surprising if he climbs. Huge guy with good hands. I like my guy Dysert better only because I have not watched your QB. Keep me informed how he does. We also agree on nose and i hope to get some info this season on Mister Cobble. He arrived like a firecracker with little warning.

[rmartin65]

Originally Posted by badboy

65 first three make me think I'm in heaven. I have Fiedo lower but not surprising if he climbs. Huge guy with good hands. I like my guy Dysert better only because I have not watched your QB. Keep me informed how he does. We also agree on nose and i hope to get some info this season on Mister Cobble. He arrived like a firecracker with little warning.

Thanks!

Watch Duke if you get the chance, Renfree is an impressive looking prospect at QB. I know at least on another guy in the boards (steelb, I want to say) really likes Dysert, and I do think he is impressive. Renfree just has a higher upside IMO.

I dont know what to think of Cobble. He is very well put together, displays good athleticism, and shows up during games. However, he is getting no buzz outside of this board. I am wondering if there is something we amateurs are missing that the pros count as a huge negative.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by rmartin65

Thanks!

Watch Duke if you get the chance, Renfree is an impressive looking prospect at QB. I know at least on another guy in the boards (steelb, I want to say) really likes Dysert, and I do think he is impressive. Renfree just has a higher upside IMO.

I dont know what to think of Cobble. He is very well put together, displays good athleticism, and shows up during games. However, he is getting no buzz outside of this board. I am wondering if there is something we amateurs are missing that the pros count as a huge negative.

I think Cobble sort of burst on the horizon end of last season and no one has seen much of him. What little I've seen is exactly what I want in a Nose, powerful, good anchor with a drive in his legs. I want him pushing the line back and eliminating RB from getting past his cone of influence. Sacks would be gravy for de chicken.

Don't think Duke games are on ESPN but if you see him on give me a heads up to watch Renfree.

[Wolf6151]

My assessment:

1. Fiedo, I really like the player but with the money we still owe OD, I doubt he's going anywhere. I just think we have higher priorities in the 1st round than backup TE.
2. Wagner, I love this pick. I'd run to the podium if he's still available. He'd lock down RT for years to come.
3. Borland, I don't know anything about him but like you I question his height.
4. Renfree, I don't know anything about him, I haven't studied the QB's because I just don't see a need at QB.
5. Polk, I don't know anything about this guy but he sounds like a Pollard clone, big hitter. What's he like in coverage? If he can't cover, why bother. The days of the Pollard style SS are pretty much over in this pass happy NFL.
6. Goard, again don't know anything about him, but I like the size and God know's we need added depth at WR. Can he run a route and get separation?
7. Opurum, don't know anything about the guy and question the need, we're pretty deep at OLB.

Why no interior O-line depth? When Brooks takes someones job next season we'll need some quality OG depth. S. Smith ain't cutting it.

[rmartin65]

Originally Posted by Wolf6151

My assessment:

1. Fiedo, I really like the player but with the money we still owe OD, I doubt he's going anywhere. I just think we have higher priorities in the 1st round than backup TE.
2. Wagner, I love this pick. I'd run to the podium if he's still available. He'd lock down RT for years to come.
3. Borland, I don't know anything about him but like you I question his height.
4. Renfree, I don't know anything about him, I haven't studied the QB's because I just don't see a need at QB.
5. Polk, I don't know anything about this guy but he sounds like a Pollard clone, big hitter. What's he like in coverage? If he can't cover, why bother. The days of the Pollard style SS are pretty much over in this pass happy NFL.
6. Goard, again don't know anything about him, but I like the size and God know's we need added depth at WR. Can he run a route and get separation?
7. Opurum, don't know anything about the guy and question the need, we're pretty deep at OLB.

Why no interior O-line depth? When Brooks takes someones job next season we'll need some quality OG depth. S. Smith ain't cutting it.

1) How much money do we still own OD? Anyway, with how reasonable rookie deals are now, I am not too concerned. OD is on the wrong side of 30, and has a history of injuries dating back to his days at Wisconsin. If we can add depth, we should. Still, if there is a good prospect at a different position available that is NOT a reach, then I would be cool with that.

3) I am not too concerned with his height. It is just why he will drop a bit. Height is over-rated at certain positions, where size (IE muscle) is more important.

4) I think a guy to groom at QB is a good idea. Maybe the 4th is a bit early to start searching, but Schaub is getting older, Yates is still a question mark, and Keenum is definitely still an unknown.

5) Its not that Polk cant cover. He is a good DB, its just that playing the ball is not his forte. Yet. He is a project, but he has the tools. Also, he is a great character guy.

6) Goard is RAW. He does not run all the routes (from the limited bit I have seen), and will definitely need work in that area.

7) You cant have enough rushers at OLB in a 3-4. Barwin/Reed/Braman/Whitney is a good group, but I want to say most teams go into the season with 5 OLBs. I could be off base on that though. Linebackers are great late round value picks because they play special teams.

I did over-look OG. I think OC is set, but we could use another OG. When I do my 1/4 mock (I plan on doing mocks at 1/4 season, 1/2 season, 3/4 season, and after the season), that will probably be rectified.

Thanks for the response, it made me think through what I have here.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Wolf6151

My assessment:

1. Fiedo, I really like the player but with the money we still owe OD, I doubt he's going anywhere. I just think we have higher priorities in the 1st round than backup TE.
2. Wagner, I love this pick. I'd run to the podium if he's still available. He'd lock down RT for years to come.
3. Borland, I don't know anything about him but like you I question his height.
4. Renfree, I don't know anything about him, I haven't studied the QB's because I just don't see a need at QB.
5. Polk, I don't know anything about this guy but he sounds like a Pollard clone, big hitter. What's he like in coverage? If he can't cover, why bother. The days of the Pollard style SS are pretty much over in this pass happy NFL.
6. Goard, again don't know anything about him, but I like the size and God know's we need added depth at WR. Can he run a route and get separation?
7. Opurum, don't know anything about the guy and question the need, we're pretty deep at OLB.

Why no interior O-line depth? When Brooks takes someones job next season we'll need some quality OG depth. S. Smith ain't cutting it.

OD signed 4 year deal with $6m guaranteed. 2012= $3.5m base. $4m bonus spread over 4 years. After this season his guarantee is met and $750,000 for '13 and '14 (1.5m)would be counted against cap. So he could be cut before 2013 and count 1 1/2 m and his salary of $4m and then 4.5m could go to another player. IMO Schaub current base of $7m + OD's $4 should be about what Matt's looking for. A guarantee of two years ($22m) + a reasonable bonus say 10m (over say 5 years = $2m cap hit per season) puts $32m in his pocket in 2 years with ten upfront.

[beerlover]

Fleener would have resolved this issue last year wouldn't it? compare the two for us please-

Personally, I think there is pretty good value in later rounds to fill TE position, but do understand the added value/dimension it brings which is why I had earmarked Alabama TE Michael Williams also 6-5 just more tackle heavy to address blocking concerns in 4th rd. I see my boy David Paulson a 7th rd. selection for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has shined in the pre-season. I think he is equal to Casey & will become one of Big Ben's safety outlets as well help in protection.

Can't go wrong with Wisconsin Badger, OL, you just can't. I would be all over this pick if Texan couldn't grab Jake Matthews in 1st.

Thank you for Borland, see if he sticks, heady player to replace Bradie in a year or two.

Have not followed Duke football so know little about Sean Renfree. However doubt with Keenum & Yates Kubiak would opt to develop another young arm this soon.

Texans have a solid group of safety prospects already fighting for roster spots. I think Quin will extend on the cheap, then you have Nolan who has developed into a well rounded safety (for depth purposes)with exciting playmaker in Demps & special teams phenom Shilo Keo. If they weren't so deep might see McMannis more @ FS but think he will probably end up back on the edge with his speed & length with McCain & Harris fighting it out as nickles.

Nothing against Goard or adding WR depth but I just don't trust the Kentucky program, given the talent level, to develop NFL ready players. I would like someone already polished from excellent coaching background like Ryan Broyles. I wonder if he goes IR? or Texans could make a trade for him otherwise if you grab the Duke QB might go with the Duke WR, Connor Vernon. Looks like a future Kevin Walter replacement type to me.

Taking a flyer on OLB late 7th seems like a wasted pick to me, maybe its the bitter taste in my mouth left from Mr. Irreverent Cheta Ozougwu? You know we could have selected Mark Herzlich & taken care of ILB need. So you just never know, but one thing for sure is there is a gaping hole in the middle of this defense without Cody who will be a free agent next year I believe? Which is why I went with Josh Boyd who I just love. Big man selected this late would be more of a long term proposition, which I don't think would be a wise choice to wait on Texans part.

As always a good, informative mock draft, partner

[beerlover]

I would also like to add that a truely great NT is above all else the hardest positional player to find. There is only one that comes to mind in the last ten years & that's Vince Wilfork. BJ Raji shows great promise but need's a couple more elite years to rack him.

Star Lotulelei is the top prospect in this years draft, best since Raji to fill a teams need @ nose tackle. 6-3 320 closer to Wilfork in style than ultra explosive Raji but many people feel could be a top 5 pick.

The best of the best just came out of High School & signed with the UCLA Bruins, Ellis McCarthy who is 6'4 5/8" listed 305 http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...cCarthy-119941

While not in these players elite status draft grade please check out Mississippi State, Josh Boyd, all 6-3 300lbs of him, he fits Wade Phillips nose tackle requirements (has explosive game of Raji) just needs continue to work & improve feet & hands.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by beerlover

I would also like to add that a truely great NT is above all else the hardest positional player to find. There is only one that comes to mind in the last ten years & that's Vince Wilfork. BJ Raji shows great promise but need's a couple more elite years to rack him.

Star Lotulelei is the top prospect in this years draft, best since Raji to fill a teams need @ nose tackle. 6-3 320 closer to Wilfork in style than ultra explosive Raji but many people feel could be a top 5 pick.

The best of the best just came out of High School & signed with the UCLA Bruins, Ellis McCarthy who is 6'4 5/8" listed 305 http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...cCarthy-119941

While not in these players elite status draft grade please check out Mississippi State, Josh Boyd, all 6-3 300lbs of him, he fits Wade Phillips nose tackle requirements (has explosive game of Raji) just needs continue to work & improve feet & hands.

Very good post.

[76Texan]

What do you guys think about the TE from Notre Dame?

[rmartin65]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

What do you guys think about the TE from Notre Dame?

Safe prospect. I think he becomes a starter early in his career, and plays for a long time. I dont, however, think he is going to be a gamechanger. He wont be Gronk, or Gonzalez or Gates or Graham (there is a pattern there- TEs start with "G"), but he should be a guy that you can count on to do his job in both the run game and pass game.

I do plan on watching him more, of course, but that is my page on him right now.