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Old 08-21-2012   #161
Double Barrel
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
If Arian Foster takes a 50% paycut next year, then yeah I'll speculate on his perceived value to the team. You just don't see this happen much in the NFL, which is why I'm bringing it up. It's abnormal, and if Kevin Walter is worth 3 million a year to other teams, then I would expect him to get cut and go elsewhere. He nearly signed with Baltimore the last time he hit UFA.

Instead, I think what happened is that Rick called him into his office and explained the situation to him. We are cap-strapped, and his 3.5 million is not guaranteed this year, so Rick probably said they were planning on cutting him unless they can work out some arrangement instead. Kevin's agent negotiates a bit and they land on the 2 million number, saving the team 1.5. Why Kevin did that, I don't know, but it happened, and it's more than I can say they did for Eric Winston's situation.
I don't disagree with you. I think Walter understands that his #2 status is based upon how they utilize him, which is somewhat unique and he would probably not have the opportunity with most other teams.

I also think he's a team player and likes Houston, so all these things combined presented a situation that he knew that he'd have to take a cut to stay on the team and playing hard ball about his salary could end his time as a Texan.

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Originally Posted by Carr Bombed View Post
Will people stop the "Madden and fantasy football" crap. It has nothing to do with my opinion.
My mention of FF and Madden was not a direct knock on you. I have just noticed over the years an over-reliance on stats to evaluate players when many times the value to a team is not necessarily recorded as a stat. FF has many fans so absorbed with stat sheets that they are unable to be objective. Same with Madden and unrealistic trade scenarios and talent level of individual players.

It's just an observation, and no need to get upset about it any more than I would get upset that your opinion is for benching Walter.

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I think we'll see Walter lose snaps over the course of the year and will be Billy Miller'd after this season if the others progress like it looks like they might.
I agree. I think most positions improve when they have someone in the wings competing for playing time.

Walter has been a solid player for us, but I am not attached to anyone so much that I want loyalty over talent. Even AJ will eventually be replaced, but most likely not with someone nearly as awesome.
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Old 08-21-2012   #162
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Thumbs up Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

I think the #2 wide reciever spot is up for grabs myself. I have seen some real good things out of Jean and Martin. I don't think Walters has got that spot locked up myself.
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Old 08-21-2012   #163
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by rush2112mn View Post
I think the #2 wide reciever spot is up for grabs myself. I have seen some real good things out of Jean and Martin. I don't think Walters has got that spot locked up myself.
For the start of the season, I think Walter has it locked up. But as the season progresses, that may change if Jean and Martin show their stuff in real games.
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Old 08-21-2012   #164
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

My take is this. Kubiak wants a playmaking WR downfield. He does know however that Martin and Jean have performed well in preseason only up to this point. I think he starts Walter simply because he has game experience. If by week 10 or so Jean is still performing better than Walter he will take Walters spot. Just my take.


Note: If only Martin plays better he still will not supplant Walter because he is not suited for playing outside.
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Old 08-21-2012   #165
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Medic01 View Post
My take is this. Kubiak wants a playmaking WR downfield. He does know however that Martin and Jean have performed well in preseason only up to this point. I think he starts Walter simply because he has game experience. If by week 10 or so Jean is still performing better than Walter he will take Walters spot. Just my take.


Note: If only Martin plays better he still will not supplant Walter because he is not suited for playing outside.
It may not take until week ten.
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Old 08-21-2012   #166
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by The Medic01 View Post
My take is this. Kubiak wants a playmaking WR downfield. He does know however that Martin and Jean have performed well in preseason only up to this point. I think he starts Walter simply because he has game experience. If by week 10 or so Jean is still performing better than Walter he will take Walters spot. Just my take.


Note: If only Martin plays better he still will not supplant Walter because he is not suited for playing outside.
I agree with your take.

However you underestimate Martin. IMHO

What happened to Posey, he seems to be like a fish out of water.
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Old 08-21-2012   #167
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Steve Smith is the guy I thought about, but he's going to have to show a mean streak to get compared to Steve Smith. FWIW though, Smith didn't get on the field outside of STs much his first couple years.
Martin kind of gives me more of a Drew Hill (RIP) vibe. Sudden, creates separation, has good hands and is all business on the field. He should be great in the slot.

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Old 08-21-2012   #168
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
Martin kind of gives me more of a Drew Hill (RIP) vibe. Sudden, creates separation, has good hands and is all business on the field. He should be great in the slot.

Funny, I was talking to AJ (Alan Burge) at the game Saturday, and he compared him to Ernest Givens.
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Old 08-21-2012   #169
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
Martin kind of gives me more of a Drew Hill (RIP) vibe. Sudden, creates separation, has good hands and is all business on the field. He should be great in the slot.
I like that. That is a much better comparison.
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Old 08-22-2012   #170
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
You realize that Schaub is usually at the top of the league in pass attempts per/gm....

KW is not anywhere near the receiver that McCaffrey was. It's not even close.
According to Profootball reference, McCaffrey came into the league in 1991, at the age of 23
He played 3 years for the Giants and 1 year for the Niner before heading to the Broncos.
In those 4 years, he totaled 103 catches.

He joined the Broncos in 1995.
In his first 4 years with the Broncos (between the age of 27-30) he totaled 196 catches in 61 games played
(39, 48, 45, 64).
In those 4 years, the Broncos had 2,134 pass attempts.

196 catches / 2,134 attempts = 9.18 per cent

...

In the 4 years when Walter was between 23-26, he caught 109 balls (6 more than McCaffrey during the same age period).

In the next 4 years (all with the Texans) Walter caught 203 balls (60, 53, 51, 39) - 7 more than McCaffrey.
(My previous addition was incorrect, showing that Walter had a few less than McCaffrey).

He also played in 61 games, the same as McCaffrey.

The Texans had 2,189 pass attempts in those 4 years.
203 catches / 2,189 attempts = 9.27 per cent.

Walter's production is actually better than McCaffrey in both periods of time.
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Old 08-22-2012   #171
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

If the math doesn't fit, you must acquit!
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Old 08-22-2012   #172
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
If the math doesn't fit, you must acquit!
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Old 08-22-2012   #173
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
If the math doesn't fit, you must acquit!
Problem is the numbers don't fit.. it's simply someone over analyizing stats, bending them to try to create some argument, and ignoring the actual on the field production... which is what 76 always does. Throws out a bunch a stats, but ignores the production.

Walter has never had the type of production that Mccaffery had during the Broncos glory years and he doesn't come close to being that type of receiver.. sorry.
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Old 08-22-2012   #174
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

Double post

Last edited by Carr Bombed; 08-22-2012 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 08-22-2012   #175
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Medic01 View Post
My take is this. Kubiak wants a playmaking WR downfield. He does know however that Martin and Jean have performed well in preseason only up to this point. I think he starts Walter simply because he has game experience. If by week 10 or so Jean is still performing better than Walter he will take Walters spot. Just my take.


Note: If only Martin plays better he still will not supplant Walter because he is not suited for playing outside.
im not sure where this is coming from. just because his under 6ft doesn't mean he can't play outside. he as all the talent and ability too and we have even seen him line up outside on numerous plays during the pre-season.
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Old 08-22-2012   #176
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carr Bombed View Post
Problem is the numbers don't fit.. it's simply someone over analyizing stats, bending them to try to create some argument, and ignoring the actual on the field production... which is what 76 always does. Throws out a bunch a stats, but ignores the production.

Walter has never had the type of production that Mccaffery had during the Broncos glory years and he doesn't come close to being that type of receiver.. sorry.
No, the problem is that our memory doesn't serve us well in this case. I thought more of Mccaffery than what the numbers show. I guess, same as Matt, when the games don't matter the production seems a lot less. Mccaffery was always making clutch plays to keep his team in contention, a situation Walter has only recently found himself in, & Schaub never has.

Winning changes everything.
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Old 08-22-2012   #177
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carr Bombed View Post
Problem is the numbers don't fit.. it's simply someone over analyizing stats, bending them to try to create some argument, and ignoring the actual on the field production... which is what 76 always does. Throws out a bunch a stats, but ignores the production.

Walter has never had the type of production that Mccaffery had during the Broncos glory years and he doesn't come close to being that type of receiver.. sorry.

First off, the little catch phrase was a joke, hence the smilie. Second, since you're the guy that flat out said you're not changing your opinion no matter what facts come to bear, I'll just disregard your opinion altogether. Nothing personal, but you've admitted you're not interested in actually discussing or discovering in this thread.

For anyone who is curious about those stats like I was, here are the first four years McCaffrey was a Bronco. Personally, I don't think they're really fair to compare anyway, because McCaffrey was more developed when he first went to the Broncos, had an all-time great throwing him the ball and a HOF TE to go alongside Rod Smith, who is a borderline HOFer himself. Nonetheless, 76Texan already gave you the percentage of offense, so here are the raw numbers:

McCaffrey:

1995 - 39 rec, 477 yds, 12.2 YPC
1996 - 48 rec, 553 yds, 11.5 YPC
1997 - 45 rec, 590 yds, 13.1 YPC
1998 - 64 rec, 1053 yds, 16.5 YPC

Walter:

2006 - 17 rec, 160 yds, 9.4
2007 - 65 rec, 800 yds, 12.3
2008 - 60 rec, 899 yds, 15.0
2009 - 53 rec, 611 yds, 11.5

I don't think I've read anyone saying Walter is as good as McCaffrey was, but rather they had similar roles, which I don't think is outlandish. Now, part of what made McCaffrey great is the fact that he produced for a long time. Within this comparable sample size, Walter holds up well to that comparison, but it ignores what happened from that point forward, which is much more relevant to the current discussion. McCaffrey went on to post seasons of 1018, 1317, and 903 yards, with a season missed due to injury in there as well. Walter's numbers have gone the other way. I think it's fair to say that we've likely seen what we're going to see from Walter. I suppose we could have a Super Bowl year where the offense goes nuts and Walter's stats leap accordingly, but I don't think we're going to see 4000+ receiving yards from Walter in any given four year span.

So given that, I want to see the guy that I think absolutely has the potential to do that put in the #2 WR spot - Lestar Jean. I also think Martin in the slot will help the entire receiving corps in a way that Walter never benefited from during his tenure so far. As I posted before, I don't know what criteria Kubiak is using to judge the #2 WR, but it's very clear that it's not statistical production. Like it or not, to this point it would have been easier to make the team from the position that backed up AJ, since that guy is the one that got the targets. Whatever that criteria is, I hope Star can get it and take over the spot, because he has big time playmaking ability, IMO.
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Old 08-22-2012   #178
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Vinny View Post
Martin kind of gives me more of a Drew Hill (RIP) vibe. Sudden, creates separation, has good hands and is all business on the field. He should be great in the slot.

Dang Vinny. I had forgot that Drew Hill (RIP) passed away.
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Old 08-22-2012   #179
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
No, the problem is that our memory doesn't serve us well in this case. I thought more of Mccaffery than what the numbers show. I guess, same as Matt, when the games don't matter the production seems a lot less. Mccaffery was always making clutch plays to keep his team in contention, a situation Walter has only recently found himself in, & Schaub never has.

Winning changes everything.
Repped for having an open mind.

As Eriadoc said, McCaffrey was quite a player; but let's not sell Walter short.

Watch these highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjyAGArt8u0

We can see a combination of things:
- Some real highlitghts
- Some where he was wide-open due to one thing or another (on some passes we can't see how the route was ran; whether he beat his man or there was poor coverage.)
- Some where the QB laid a perfect pass.

I actually saw Walter made quite a few highlight reel plays as well.
If we're to compile it, there will be enough to show that he didn't trail McCaffrey by much.

Sure, McCaffrey had more TDs, but we really don't know how many of those were the result of the kind of play we talked about with Jean and Walter recently.

And let's not forget that McCaffrey went to the Broncos as a vet over a younger Rod Smith, but Smith leap-frogged him.

There was always a number one receiver to draw more attention in coverage for McCaffrey (they were healthy almost all the time).
On the other hand, AJ was down quite a bit, and Walter certainly did not benefit from that.

Also, the Broncos running game was in high gear in those 4 years (ranked 5, 1, 4, and 2), which should helped open up the passing game.
The running game was not as good the following year, but still very potent, falling out of the top ten only once - at #12.)

McCaffrey had a few more very productive years after the age of 30 (the age which Walter has not reached yet).

In those "future" years, the Broncos #3 receiver, like I said, caught like 4 passes in one year, and 3 passes in a couple other years.

And again, like I said, the Broncos didn't have a back that was as efficient out of the backfield as Foster, so they had to go the main two guys more.

That doesn't mean they were guaranteed to win though, as they went 6-10, 11-5, 8-8 and 9-7 those next 4 future years.
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Old 08-22-2012   #180
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Default Re: Kevin Walter can go sit on the bench..

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I don't think I've read anyone saying Walter is as good as McCaffrey was, but rather they had similar roles, which I don't think is outlandish.
Thank you, saved me some typing. MSR for the overall post.

When Walter is retired or replaced, people will ***** about the next #2 WR because he will not be able to step into the #1 role. But Kubiak's offense is not designed that way, and it's not going to have #1a and #1b on both sides of the field.
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