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Old 07-23-2012   #21
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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One thing though, you can't be on both sides of the SOS argument.
You don't know me very well
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Old 07-23-2012   #22
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Stats are a funny thing. Go back & look at how many top 5 teams have repeated as top 5 over the last 5 years. There aren't many.
Pittsburgh has been in the top 5 for the past 5 seasons. Baltimore has been top 6 for 8 of the past 9 seasons. The Jets have been top 5 for 3 years (the Rex Ryan era). Good defenses tend to remain good.
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Old 07-23-2012   #23
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Pittsburgh has been in the top 5 for the past 5 seasons. Baltimore has been top 6 for 8 of the past 9 seasons. The Jets have been top 5 for 3 years (the Rex Ryan era). Good defenses tend to remain good.
All AFC teams, just an observation. Dont ahve to play the Packers, Lions, Eagles, etc....year after year.
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Old 07-23-2012   #24
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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Pittsburgh has been in the top 5 for the past 5 seasons. Baltimore has been top 6 for 8 of the past 9 seasons. The Jets have been top 5 for 3 years (the Rex Ryan era). Good defenses tend to remain good.
True. I never said different.

If we truly have a top 5 defense, if we truly have a good defense (great really) we'll be top 5 at the end of 2012 & that will be the end of that. But... we went from 30th to 2nd, chances are we had some help.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we really have a top 5 defense.
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Old 07-23-2012   #25
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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The fact is, at some point in time that meteor will hit the earth. That's the way solar systems work. Still, I'd give that a better chance of happening in my lifetime than the believability of most sport articles.
Have we contacted Harry Stamper concerning the meteor???

You know, the drilling guru from Armageddon?
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Old 07-23-2012   #26
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True. I never said different.

If we truly have a top 5 defense, if we truly have a good defense (great really) we'll be top 5 at the end of 2012 & that will be the end of that. But... we went from 30th to 2nd, chances are we had some help.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we really have a top 5 defense.
We went from 30th to 2nd with a new scheme, new players, and rookies all playing a significant role.

I too think some of our opponents sucked last year, but I expect us to grow as a defense. 1 more year in the system. Key rookies are now second year guys, guys have a year of experience in knowing what the guy next to them is about.

Plus we've added more new talent in the draft.

Forget the rankings, do you think this defense will be better? Worse? Or the same?

It's completely possible that we could be better and finish with a lower statistical rank.
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Old 07-23-2012   #27
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

The team has to face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler, and a potentially healthy Peyton Manning this year. I posted something similar last year after the NO game, but I don't care how good your defense is - when you have a top tier QB driving to win the game in the final minutes, especially with the way the rules now favor the offense, you have to expect that the QB is going to win that more often than not. You have to knock those teams out early and bury them. If you give those QBs a chance in the end, they'll make you pay.

That alone makes the schedule tougher this year. Last season, the team only faced one QB of that caliber (Brees). They also made Cam Newton look like he belongs in that conversation, but we'll see how that goes.
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Old 07-23-2012   #28
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

This stuff about Brees torching us is ridiculous. Yes he absolutely did torch us but he torched everybody. In this league now very rarely will you not get torched by these elite QB's. The key is creating turnover and capitalizing. We did force turnover but we didn't capitalize and much of the failure to capitalize was due to not having Foster as our redzone threat. He torched the 9ers the 9ers got torched by a lot of QB's in terms of yards as will we next year. We have to force turnovers and we must capitalize on those turnovers each and every time. That is really the only way to beat those kind of teams consistently. The good thing is that all of the elite offenses we play have an awful D that will help us to keep their Qb's off the field by running the ball and will allow us to score through the air if we get behind a bit.
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Old 07-23-2012   #29
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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All AFC teams, just an observation. Dont ahve to play the Packers, Lions, Eagles, etc....year after year.
In 2011, 7 of the top 9 scoring offenses played in the NFC. But, that was the first time in 14 seasons the Lions had a top 10 offense. And the Colts and Pats offenses have been equal (or better) than the Packers or Eagles offenses over the previous 5 seasons. The better offenses in 2011 resided in the NFC. That is more of a recent occurrence than anything.

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If we truly have a top 5 defense, if we truly have a good defense (great really) we'll be top 5 at the end of 2012 & that will be the end of that. But... we went from 30th to 2nd, chances are we had some help.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we really have a top 5 defense.
The Texans will play what are likely better offenses in 2012. But maybe a better criteria for judging a defense is how the opposing offense does against it, versus their average. The Texans held opposing offenses below their yards/play average in 14 of 16 games. Only Baltimore and Tennessee (vs Texans scrubs) had a higher than normal yard/play than they would normally.

That tells me that despite the opposition, the Texans defense was effective. And while the totals may very well go up in 2012, that won't mean the Texans defense isn't doing their job. How they perform versus the opposition's norm is the key.
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Old 07-23-2012   #30
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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We went from 30th to 2nd with a new scheme, new players, and rookies all playing a significant role.

I too think some of our opponents sucked last year, but I expect us to grow as a defense. 1 more year in the system. Key rookies are now second year guys, guys have a year of experience in knowing what the guy next to them is about.

Plus we've added more new talent in the draft.

Forget the rankings, do you think this defense will be better? Worse? Or the same?

It's completely possible that we could be better and finish with a lower statistical rank.
I think we'll get better.

I think our stats will get worse.

I don't think we were a true top 5 defense in 2011, I think we benefitted from Gabbert (x2), McCoy, Curtis Painter(x2), CJ2ypc (x2), Miami, Tampa Bay, & Cincinnati. 10 out of 16 games vs offenses that ranked 16 or lower.

at the same time, we played four top 10 offenses: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Oakland. We went 2-2

and two other teams better than 16: Pittsburgh & Baltimore. We went 1-1.

I don't think our 2012 schedule is going to be much different than that. So I could very well be wrong.

& I'll be happy that I am.
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Old 07-23-2012   #31
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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In 2011, 7 of the top 9 scoring offenses played in the NFC. But, that was the first time in 14 seasons the Lions had a top 10 offense. And the Colts and Pats offenses have been equal (or better) than the Packers or Eagles offenses over the previous 5 seasons. The better offenses in 2011 resided in the NFC. That is more of a recent occurrence than anything.


The Texans will play what are likely better offenses in 2012. But maybe a better criteria for judging a defense is how the opposing offense does against it, versus their average. The Texans held opposing offenses below their yards/play average in 14 of 16 games. Only Baltimore and Tennessee (vs Texans scrubs) had a higher than normal yard/play than they would normally.

That tells me that despite the opposition, the Texans defense was effective. And while the totals may very well go up in 2012, that won't mean the Texans defense isn't doing their job. How they perform versus the opposition's norm is the key.
Good point.

But we're not going to change the way the NFL ranks defenses. Neither will Pittsburgh or Baltimore & they've managed to have a top defense for several years using the NFL's "system"

Like you, I really don't care as long as we win.

If we're top 5 both offensively & defensively.....
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Old 07-24-2012   #32
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

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I still don't buy this concept/superstition that our D regresses in year 2.

A lot of myths are going to be busted in 2012.
Its hard for the team to D to not regress. It was the #2 D last year. Unless they get to #1 or stay at #2 they will regress. One thing a lot of people get hung up on is the ranking of the total D. For me, the only stat that counts is points given up. In that respect I think the team will do fine. Last year's Wade's D made teams settle for fgs rather than tds and punts rather than long fgs.

I think the Defense will regress to around #5 or so. That is still a damn good defense and I would be thrilled if the Texans put together back to back top 5 D's.
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Old 07-24-2012   #33
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Default Re: Football Outsiders Texans predictions: A Q&A with Rivers McCown

And turnovers. Those are as if not more important than points allowed.
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