Thoughts on Mercilus and My 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Chart

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Wolf6151

Good list. You'll notice that Devier Posey and Keyshawn Martin are nowhere on the list, makes you wonder what the Texans were thinking and who in the Texans organization made those 2 picks.

Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.

[LZ]

Originally Posted by The Medic01

No offense man I'm sure you know about this but I'll take Wade's word over yours. No offense just Wade is a genius who probably spent weeks on end studying pass rushers. He gets paid to do this kind of thing.

I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?

[Allstar]

Originally Posted by LZ

I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?

Wade Phillips

(on comparing Mercilus to J.J. Watt at this time last year from a developmental standpoint) “I look at him a little more developed than Brooks Reed was last year because Brooks didn’t use his hands as well. Brooks is a really good football player. I mean at the end of the year, he and J.J. were dominant players at their position. We’re excited about that, and of course, Connor Barwin is, too. I think this kid will fit right in. I think he’ll fit right in that group, and you won’t say, ‘Wow, we got two guys and him, and he’s got to come along.’ I think he’ll fit right in that group.”

[LZ]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.

This is so, so, so very true and I try to put that out there every chance I get. We watch games on television.... not all-22 tape. We don't have access to personal interviews nor to medical reports.

Anything that any "draftnik" or "tv personality" talks about is generally an opinion that isn't backed up by as much info. With that said, there are also plenty of times when evaluators for teams miss and a draft writer will be right on a player.

I need to see more on Posey. My grade was based 100% on the grade from another team as I hardly got to see him this year because of his suspension. Keyshawn Martin was a 4th for me as was Crick. However, no offense at all is taken by saying that teams have more access to info that any of us do. I will say that in the 4 games I watched on Mercilus, I thought he stayed engaged a little too long and didn't look like a polished pass rusher.

My draft ratings are based on watching games, going to Shrine practices, Sr. Bowl practices, the combine and speaking with teams. I will have a write-up of my thoughts on the Texans draft later tonight. Other than Posey that high, I was pretty happy.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by LZ

I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?

You're pulling our chain, right?
From HT.com.... the Wade/Whitney presser... LINK


LINK2

(on what jumped out to him about Mercilus while watching film) “Well, he’s a natural pass rusher. He’s got the skills that you look for in pass rushers. He’s a little different than Brooks Reed was last year. He’s more used to using his hands, and he’s got a speed rush, he’s got a power rush, and he’s got a quick inside move. It’s something certainly to develop, but he has some natural moves. I mean you don’t get 16 sacks in that league without having some natural gifts, and he has those.”

[LZ]

Originally Posted by Allstar

Wade Phillips

Yeah, not the pass rushing comment that had originally been portrayed. Developed as a football player as a 3 down player? I'm sure that is accurate. I was just addressing pass rushing skills. Reed is a pretty skilled pass rusher as far as moves are concerned, he's just a little stiff and doesn't have the 2nd and 3rd step quickness that he exhibits from 1st step. That is one of the reasons I felt like (and still feel like) the Texans needed to bring someone in to compete and eventually start at that position. Reed is probably a rotational pass rusher who is great depth.

[CloakNNNdagger]

FWIW, from the Chronicle-Dale Robertson link

But Mercilus, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips said, is more of a Brooks Reed – except he’s even further evolved that Reed was when the Texans chose the Arizona Wildcat with a second-round pick in 2011. And, like Reed, he’ll be converted to outside linebacker with the Phillips needing to replace Mario Williams, who was lost to Buffalo because of salary-cap problems.

“He’s more used to using his hands than Brooks was, and he’s a really good football player,” Phillips said. “By the end of the year, Brooks and J. J. were dominant players. This kid will fit right in with them.”

[LZ]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

You're pulling our chain, right?
From HT.com.... the Wade/Whitney presser... LINK


LINK2

Not arguing any of that. He's got natural pass rushing ability... said the same thing on radio and on TV with Matt Musil. If he is as developed as people believe that Wade thinks he is, he will start. No need to keep a player who is more developed on the bench over Reed. My money is on Reed starting and Mercilus playing the Aldon Smith role this year.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by LZ

Not arguing any of that. He's got natural pass rushing ability... said the same thing on radio and on TV with Matt Musil. If he is as developed as people believe that Wade thinks he is, he will start. No need to keep a player who is more developed on the bench over Reed. My money is on Reed starting and Mercilus playing the Aldon Smith role this year.

Hey, I, for one, am good with that mix. If we get Aldon Smith production out of him in a part-time role, he's a good pick.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by LZ

He might use his hands better, but Reed had an up and under move, an inside spin, a legit edge rush and could bull rush. If anyone wants to show me any games where Mercilus exhibited those pass rush moves, I am more than willing to come watch. Hand placement and usage may very well be in Mercilus' favor. Mercilus is the better overall prospect though.

I agree with all of this. I think merci has more high end potential, but I can't predict who will be the better player this upcoming season.

If reed has progressed a good amount it'd probably be him though. I don't think merci is going to be ready for a full time gig next year but you never know.

As far as just pass rushing goes I too give the edge to reed.

[LZ]

Don't want to keep going back and forth as there is really no argument from me here. Just want to make sure I'm not being misrepresented. Here is what I said about Brooks Reed pre-draft:

Brooks Reed, Arizona

Reed had a terrific Senior Bowl and showed every pass -rushing move imaginable in one-on-one drills which is one of the reasons that I believe he will probably be over-drafted. Hell, I was just as excited as anyone until I actually watched tape of him. What I see in Reed is a slightly stiff pass rusher with a great motor and a very good inside spin move. What worries me is that Reed wasn’t as productive as you might expect from a pass rusher being considered in the first round. While I expect Reed to be a solid pro, I don’t think he’ll be the pass rusher that some expect – and he’s probably best suited to be a strong-side OLB in a 3-4 defense that already has an accomplished pass rusher on the weak-side. I don’t see Reed as a first round talent.

.... and what I said post-draft:


Round 2 (pick 42) — Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
Z-Report Top 100: 41
Z-Report Says: Reed had a terrific Senior Bowl and showed every pass rushing move imaginable in the one-on-one drills which is one of the reasons I went scrambling to watch more games of him to find out why there wasn’t a bigger buzz surrounding him headed into the Senior Bowl practices. What I saw on tape was a player who plays hard, gets off the snap with a great first step and a guy who is relentless. Reed didn’t have the sack production I expected after watching him at the Senior Bowl and he is a little stiff in the hips which means he isn’t going to change direction as well as you would like. To me, Reed can be an effective complimentary rusher, but he’s not Clay Matthews. Reed should be able to come in right away and fight for a starting job and he can be part of an attacking unit that gets after the QB rather than a dominant individual pass rusher. The first two picks of this draft set the tone for Wade Phillips and the Texans as they are looking for guys who play hard each snap and whose primary focus is football. That is the word on both Watt and Reed from scouts in the business.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by LZ

Reed is a pretty skilled pass rusher as far as moves are concerned, he's just a little stiff and doesn't have the 2nd and 3rd step quickness that he exhibits from 1st step. That is one of the reasons I felt like (and still feel like) the Texans needed to bring someone in to compete and eventually start at that position. Reed is probably a rotational pass rusher who is great depth.

You weren't high on Reed last year, pre-draft. I pretty much agreed with you, then. But, Reed has won me over with his performance last year. He had 6 sacks in 5 games, after Mario went down. After that, he ran into the dreaded rookie wall and went dormant for a few games. Reed rested in week 17, and came back strong in the playoffs with 3-1/2 sacks. Yes, he should be in a rotation. But, I think he's the real deal as a pass rusher.

Do you remember the defense that the Rams ran in the late 80's, where they would have 2 d-lineman down and 5 LBs standing? Not knowing who was going to blitz and who would drop back. I think the Texans could run something like that now, with Barwin, Reed, Cushing, and Mercilus. I see Wade cooking up something to get everyone of his pass rushers on the field.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by LZ

This is so, so, so very true and I try to put that out there every chance I get. We watch games on television.... not all-22 tape. We don't have access to personal interviews nor to medical reports.

Anything that any "draftnik" or "tv personality" talks about is generally an opinion that isn't backed up by as much info. With that said, there are also plenty of times when evaluators for teams miss and a draft writer will be right on a player.

I need to see more on Posey. My grade was based 100% on the grade from another team as I hardly got to see him this year because of his suspension. Keyshawn Martin was a 4th for me as was Crick. However, no offense at all is taken by saying that teams have more access to info that any of us do. I will say that in the 4 games I watched on Mercilus, I thought he stayed engaged a little too long and didn't look like a polished pass rusher.

My draft ratings are based on watching games, going to Shrine practices, Sr. Bowl practices, the combine and speaking with teams. I will have a write-up of my thoughts on the Texans draft later tonight. Other than Posey that high, I was pretty happy.

This is very true and it is to your credit that you acknowledge this.

That being said:
Postmodern Americans don't lack information in making good decisions, we often lack the clarity of thought, discernment, and integrity to draw the correct conclusion. Access to an excess of information does not eliminate those issues, but it can magnify them. Teams with good decision-making models with people that divert the least from those models are the ones that get it right most of the time. All this is to say that having less information than others does not disqualify a person from the possibility he drew an educated and better conclusion.

I respect Lance's opinion a great deal, not because he is more informed that everyone else, but because I think he is consistent and his conclusions are sound. There is nothing wrong with someone like LZ critiquing the Texans' organization or any other organization regarding personnel decisions they made.

(I love this Texan draft. Partly, however, because I believe in Rick Smith, Kubiak, and their decision-making process. Still, I like to hear what others I respect, like LZ, think about it)

[TexansFanatic]

Postmodern? Did you visit the museum recently or something? ;-)

[ThruThick&Thin]

Hey guys, I was wondering if everyone else is as happy as I am about this draft? I mean we got 3 great hogs for the O-line...Mercilus the Merciless!!! We got Crick, who is a great gamble to get in there as a down lineman, whom excelled when he had someone a little more brilliant playing next to him. Well great news brotha cause we got that kinda situation going on.

I have been digging up reports from pre-draft about the two WR and the only knock on the guys are that they aren't that good at blocking. So that made me think, after the Texans had WR Randle right in their lap and traded away, that they feel these guys can do what they are looking to do and they could add a pick on the 3rd "1st-round" (day 3-4th rd).

Perhaps they are looking for more aggressive 4/1 and 5/0 sets, using Arian lined up wide? That way we can stress teams that have shallow depth at DB and protect Matt with quick release while we bring along our baby giants?

I am happy with what they've done and I look forward to supporting them. I swear to God the only person that my confidence is low in, is Kareem Jackson LOL .... #25 is always on the bad end of a great play. Hurts me deep :x

[ThruThick&Thin]

I'm gonna even have to change my dang Avatar because Smith has been kicking butt the past 3 years in the draft. Maybe he fails at managing contracts, but he's looking great with Wade's advice on picks.

Let me just say that I'm not an Aggie and I don't have or care for their rivalry with UT and all that commercial rivalry crap. However.. I am extremely happy the Houston Texans have a K from Texas A&M... that is just awesome. I say that because you can hate those guys but they make damn good soldiers in their little subculture. We have a nice team composition ;-)

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by TexansFanatic

Postmodern? Did you visit the museum recently or something? ;-)

I thought he was referring to Todd McShay.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by ThruThick&Thin

Hey guys, I was wondering if everyone else is as happy as I am about this draft?

You can read through the board and see that people are mostly pleased with it. A few people are extremely upset by the choices made at WR because we chose guys that weren't as highly ranked or touted as other guys that were out there.

I think the Texans got the guys they wanted. I think they didn't like Randle (or Sanu or Toon) as much as a lot of other people did.

And I don't think Wade is as worried about KJ as some people are.

[rmartin65]

I think most everyone is happy. Heck, as much as I am hesitant about Posey, I still love our haul.

People are going to complain about things the team does, it is part of being a free-thinking fan. And we are allowed to- do you guys all only complain about things that you are getting paid to do, that you are experts in? I have a hard time believing that everyone who participates in the NSZ is an expert in every little topic that gets discussed there, yet nobody is told to stop complaining because they are not an expert. Opinions are allowed, and as long as they contribute to the discussion, a poster should not be discouraged from giving an opinion.

Just something to think about- nobody is saying we should fire Smith after this draft! That might be a first.

[Playoffs]

My thought on every Texans 2012 draft pick

I’ll let you know right up front that I don’t do “draft grades.” It’s stupid. Seriously, how many of you were in school and had a teacher pass out tests to you with grades already in red marker on them before you even got to take the test? That never happened. Well, it probably happened at a few high schools and college where they were trying to keep guys eligible, but you know what I’m saying. I can’t “grade” this draft until I see these players play. Instead, I will give you my opinions on each player the Texans drafted...

read more: http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootbal...12-draft-pick/