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Old 04-05-2012   #1
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Default Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

There's a first time for everything, so I thought I'd throw out a mock draft of my own. The fanbase consensus seems to be that we will go WR or D-line for the first pick, and then address other needs with our 2-4 picks as they come up. So I'll try something different here and see how it looks. It's a bit offense heavy, but I think it addresses our main needs, including one that everyone is avoiding...



1.26 - Brandon Weedon, QB OK State

Obviously not a popular pick, but let's assume that the Texans' statements about Schaub's recovery are embellished and just a smoke screen for their draft purposes. Let's also assume Matt can't play this season. Well, the most seasoned QB left on the board is Weedon, and he should be able to start week 1. He's a bit old at 28, but that will mean he is more mature than the younger guys available. He's more mobile than Schaub, and started every game for the last 2 years. In those two years of starting, he threw for over 9000 yards, 71 TDs and 26 INTs. I believe he will be a better QB than Yates, though they would both compete for the starting role in camp. He also has a good pump fake, something we don't see a lot with Schaub, but could definitely be useful. It will take some time for him to adjust to playing under center, but I think he can do it. He has good accuracy, a good release, and excellent arm strength. He was even drafted in the MLB as a pitcher before he switched to a real sport...

Weeden in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl

2.58 - Brandon Thompson, DT Clemson

I really like this guy for Wade's system and I think he could be our starting NT for the next few years. He's 6-2 310 pounds and could be utilized just like Jay Ratliff was when Wade was with the Cowboys. Cody is probably gone after this season, so we should look for a successor now. Earl Mitchell can move to DE to backup Antonio, and provide depth.

Thompson plays vs GT

3.76 - Mitchell Schwartz, OT Cal

Moving up 13 spots in the 3rd pays off here as the 8th best OT falls to the mid third round. This would be a good value for the Texans if they could get him here and I think it is entirely possible. Schwartz reportedly had a back injury in the spring of 2011 and that could cause him to drop to the 3rd round. At 6'5 315 pounds, Schwartz is a good size for the ZBS tackle position. His durability shouldn't be much of an issue as he has started every game for Cal for the last 4 years. During Kubiak's first draft, the Texans took Spencer and Winston at picks 65 and 66th overall, so a 3rd round Olineman fits the tendency of Kubiak.

Schwartz LT against Stanford


4.99 - Keenan Robinson, LB Texas


The Texans need some depth at LB, so they get some local help from Texas. Keenan has been solid against the run for Texas and can drop into zone coverage on passes, which could allow Cushing to rush the passer in some situations. I think he's big enough to play ILB, but could also be in rotation at OLB. I'm sure Wade can figure out something to do with him. He's also very well spoken, seems like a stand up guy and was a leader on Texas' defense. Certainly fits the Texans' profile for players and could help fill the hole left by Ryans' departure.

Robinson vs OU 2010

4.121 - Michael Egnew, TE Missouri

Kubes fills Dreesen's role with the 3rd best TE in this class. He can block pretty well, and he is a good pass catcher. He unknowingly helped the Texans quite a bit in 2010 when he helped make Blaine Gabbert look like an NFL QB prospect. He's a big guy at 6'5⅛" 252 pounds, which is a bit different than our TEs of the past, but I think he could be a very good #2 TE. Casey stays at FB in this scenario, which is good because his versatility would be great to have in the lineup.

2010 Positives and Negatives

5.161 - Jeff Fuller, WR Texas A&M

Another local pick and Kubiak finally drafts an Aggie! Probably a bit too late on the WR front for most of you, but I think JJ and Walter will be our WR 2/3 next year. Obviously Walter isn't going anywhere after the salary reduction, and JJ appears to have a good amount of guaranteed money on his deal which precludes them from cutting him.

Fuller has had a lot of issues this year with the hamstring injury and people questioning his mental toughness. He will be somewhat of a project, but Kubiak loves those and he has excellent size which Kubes loves. He's a great runblocker, so you know he's on the Texans' radar. His junior year was great statistically and would have put him as at least a 3rd round pick had he drafted, but he stayed around for a poor senior season and now he's paying for it. Getting him in the 5th is a good value as I think Kubiak can turn this kid around.

Fuller in 2011 Cotton Bowl vs PP

6.195 - Randy Bullock, K Texas A&M

Another Aggie? Yes, I think we all know the Texans need to get a kicker at some point, and drafting Bullock would certainly fill that role if they don't re-sign Rackers in the next 3 weeks. Rackers seems to have gotten no interest from other teams, so there is a chance he will be back, but looking to the future it would be great to solidify this position for the next 4 years. Bullock has quite a leg and a great record in college. He made 29 FGs last year, good for an 87.9 percentage. His long of 52 this year makes him an excellent prospect to develop over the next few years. He also has good kickoff power and can consistently hit the end zone from the 30 yard line. Should have no problems with the NFL's 35.

Sorry, no kicking videos...

7.233 - Eric Page, WR/KR Toledo

I love this little guy, and this may be too late of a draft spot for him. He's got everything you could ask for in a #3 WR, except for size. At 5'9" 186 pounds, he is undersized, but he makes up for it with great hands, good speed and elusiveness. He's only 20 years old, so he has plenty of time ahead of him to develop and put on some more muscle. I picture him in the slot position for us and being the second coming of David Anderson, only productive. His stats in college are incredible for only 3 years of starting. He was in track to pass Ryan Broyles' records in 2012, but decided to draft instead. In 2011, he started 13 games and had 125 receptions (avg 9.6 rec per game), 1182 yards, 9.5 ypc and 10 TDs. He also had 1 punt and kick return TD. He averaged over 25 yards per kick return, which could put him in line to start along side Manning.

Eric Page's stats

Page vs Northern Illinois
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Old 04-05-2012   #2
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

Kudos on the work you put into this. Obviously you are going to get destroyed for drafting a QB. But working under the assumption that Schaub is out, its understandable. And obviously you like the big 12 conference!

I like the next 3 picks alot. I put Robinson and Schwartz in my mock too.

Only knock I have is that you drafted 2 defensive players. Would like to see a late round DB.
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Old 04-05-2012   #3
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

So far I've been only concentrating on QBs and WRs.

I would say no to Weeden; he didn't show enough at that "advanced" age to merrit a first round grade for me. I don't like him as my QB to begin with.

I would take Fuller in the 5th.

I haven't seen Egnew this year, but I did watch him plenty last year.
Do they actually play him at TE this year (lining right next to the tackle) or do they play him as a receiver (with a TE title only) like last year when he never blocked in-line (if I recount it correctly.)

No matter, at that spot in the fourth, I'm on board with that pick, even if we play him like a big receiver, I would be fine with that.
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Old 04-05-2012   #4
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Originally Posted by Blake View Post
Kudos on the work you put into this. Obviously you are going to get destroyed for drafting a QB. But working under the assumption that Schaub is out, its understandable. And obviously you like the big 12 conference!

I like the next 3 picks alot. I put Robinson and Schwartz in my mock too.

Only knock I have is that you drafted 2 defensive players. Would like to see a late round DB.
Thanks! I didn't really think about the conferences drafted, but yeah it's a bit Big 12 heavy. Mizzou still counts as Big 12 this year.

Anyone is welcome to criticize the picks, I know I have criticized others. I don't mind, but I do think that the Texans are in win-now mode and need a QB to do that. If Schaub won't be ready week 1, or even week 8, then we need a plan. I think Yates could be that guy, but we also have no one behind him right now, so Weeden makes a lot of sense. He's capable of starting ahead of Yates as well, and I don't think there are any other QBs we could get that can do that this year. Foles, Osweiller, Cousins, etc will all take more time to develop than Weeden.

I realize it's d-light, but honestly we don't have many holes on defense. I expect our secondary to remain in tact, and that Kjax can start as a #2 CB this year. We have lots of guys at CB that can take 25% of Kjax's snaps if necessary, like Harris, Carmichael or maybe McMannis. Quin and Manning are gonna be the starting safeties, so I don't see a reason to draft one this year. Keo and Demps are there for depth. We just need front 7 guys in this draft, the secondary depth will be addressed with UDFAs in this plan.
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Old 04-05-2012   #5
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

I plan on watching Page, but have not gotten to it yet.
There are just so many receivers in this class (draftable and borderline draftable).
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Old 04-05-2012   #6
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Thanks! I didn't really think about the conferences drafted, but yeah it's a bit Big 12 heavy. Mizzou still counts as Big 12 this year.

Anyone is welcome to criticize the picks, I know I have criticized others. I don't mind, but I do think that the Texans are in win-now mode and need a QB to do that. If Schaub won't be ready week 1, or even week 8, then we need a plan. I think Yates could be that guy, but we also have no one behind him right now, so Weeden makes a lot of sense. He's capable of starting ahead of Yates as well, and I don't think there are any other QBs we could get that can do that this year. Foles, Osweiller, Cousins, etc will all take more time to develop than Weeden.

I realize it's d-light, but honestly we don't have many holes on defense. I expect our secondary to remain in tact, and that Kjax can start as a #2 CB this year. We have lots of guys at CB that can take 25% of Kjax's snaps if necessary, like Harris, Carmichael or maybe McMannis. Quin and Manning are gonna be the starting safeties, so I don't see a reason to draft one this year. Keo and Demps are there for depth. We just need front 7 guys in this draft, the secondary depth will be addressed with UDFAs in this plan.
Out of that list, I would take Cousins.
He has all the tools and played pretty well under pressure.
(The same cannot be said for the others.)

He needs to improve on all aspects, but I think once it's all said and done, Cousins is the most likely to become a starter in the NFL. JMO, of course.
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Old 04-05-2012   #7
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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I plan on watching Page, but have not gotten to it yet.
There are just so many receivers in this class (draftable and borderline draftable).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmDWJW0wmVI

That was Page's freshman tapes.
How did he run a 4.61 and 4.51-4.55 at some of the work-outs I read about?
His game speed looks faster than that.
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Old 04-05-2012   #8
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Out of that list, I would take Cousins.
He has all the tools and played pretty well under pressure.
(The same cannot be said for the others.)

He needs to improve on all aspects, but I think once it's all said and done, Cousins is the most likely to become a starter in the NFL. JMO, of course.
Well, here's a Youtube video of Cousins plays in the bowl this year:
http://youtu.be/owBOdv4BITA

He did take a lot of snaps under center, which is good for transition to the NFL, but I just think of him a lot like Tannehill. He makes some good plays here and there, but my god are there a lot of boneheaded INTs or almost INTs. I just don't see that many mental mistakes from Weeden, so that's why I think he's more NFL ready. Also, I think the Big 12 competition was much more difficult than the Big 10. Cousins certainly has potential, and if I were gonna mock him I would say he's a late 2nd or early 3rd pick for the Texans. Could certainly put him at the 2nd round pick spot in my mock and sub in Jerel Worthy DT as the 1st round pick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmDWJW0wmVI

That was Page's freshman tapes.
How did he run a 4.61 and 4.51-4.55 at some of the work-outs I read about?
His game speed looks faster than that.
He ran better at his pro day, which is where the 4.5 times come from. His combine numbers were pretty good across the board, though his 4.61 40 time didn't look too good given this year's speedster crop. He's a 7th round pick in this mock though, so I wouldn't expect too much from him. I just like him as a slot guy as opposed to spending a 3-4 pick on guys like Ryan Broyles, Joe Adams and Jarius Wright. He's a great value that late, but may go in the 6th come draft time.
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Old 04-05-2012   #9
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

I agree on your kicker.
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Old 04-05-2012   #10
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Well, here's a Youtube video of Cousins plays in the bowl this year:
http://youtu.be/owBOdv4BITA

He did take a lot of snaps under center, which is good for transition to the NFL, but I just think of him a lot like Tannehill. He makes some good plays here and there, but my god are there a lot of boneheaded INTs or almost INTs. I just don't see that many mental mistakes from Weeden, so that's why I think he's more NFL ready. Also, I think the Big 12 competition was much more difficult than the Big 10. Cousins certainly has potential, and if I were gonna mock him I would say he's a late 2nd or early 3rd pick for the Texans. Could certainly put him at the 2nd round pick spot in my mock and sub in Jerel Worthy DT as the 1st round pick.
I agree with Cousins at the Texans spot in the 2nd or at the latest early in the third (even though I think some team will reach and draft him before that.)

I disagree about the passing defense of the Big 10 vs the Big 12.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2011/Intern...0000827TD.HTML
The big 10 had 2 teams in the top 5, 5 more teams in the top 20 (for a total of 7), 2 more in the top 50, then Purdue at 53, Iowa at 58, and NWstern at 71.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2011/Intern...0025354TD.HTML
The only team in the Big 12 ranked in the top 40 was UT at 42.

I've seen plenty of bonehead plays from both Weeden and Tannehill.
Weeden, being close to 30, would never find a place on my draft board with that skill set. Sorry, but that's just how I would approach if I were to build a team. I would not draft Weeden before the fourth round, especially when I knew I could have had Dalton in the third last year (as a comparison). I would have drafted Dalton and have nothing to do with Weeden, actually.
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Old 04-05-2012   #11
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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He ran better at his pro day, which is where the 4.5 times come from. His combine numbers were pretty good across the board, though his 4.61 40 time didn't look too good given this year's speedster crop. He's a 7th round pick in this mock though, so I wouldn't expect too much from him. I just like him as a slot guy as opposed to spending a 3-4 pick on guys like Ryan Broyles, Joe Adams and Jarius Wright. He's a great value that late, but may go in the 6th come draft time.
I had no complain about him in the 7th. He looks like a playa to me.
I'd like to see if we can grab Dale Moss before that though. A bigger and faster playa with great leaping skill and hands to match.
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Old 04-05-2012   #12
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

Very interesting take, good read. Wondering if Schaub gets hurt again what the contingency plan would be? Or worse yet, another big money cap casualty next offseason when his contract expires. I would probably evaluate the QB class as a group & find better value later like they did with TJ Yates
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Old 04-05-2012   #13
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Wondering if Schaub gets hurt again what the contingency plan would be?
Yates would start and hopefully the Texans will bring in another vet. I think Kubiak will find someone.
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Old 04-05-2012   #14
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...especially when I knew I could have had Dalton in the third last year (as a comparison).
Dalton was selected in the 2nd round (35th overall) last year.
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Old 04-05-2012   #15
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Yates would start and hopefully the Texans will bring in another vet. I think Kubiak will find someone.
Maybe, maybe not. I could see a player with the experience of Weeden become a solid back-up in short order if this should happen.
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Old 04-05-2012   #16
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Maybe, maybe not.
Why "maybe not"? Other than the failed Orlovsky experiment, Kubiak has found solid backups (Rosenfels, Grossman, Leinart, Yates). I don't see a concern for using a high draft choice on a rookie...unless Schaub's injury is worse than we're being told.
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Old 04-05-2012   #17
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Dalton was selected in the 2nd round (35th overall) last year.
Dalton was my favorite QB prospect in last years draft. Much better than Locker, Ponder & this year Tannehill. I do agree with another poster about Cousins, little smaller than ideal but plays consistently big.
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Old 04-05-2012   #18
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

JMO.

1. Weedon, I've been trying to wrap my mind around this pick all day and although what you say about Schaub's injury etc... makes sense I have to believe that Smithiak knows alot more about Schaub's injury and recovery than we do so I'll just have to trust them on this decision and pass on Weedon at this time.
2. Thompson, I love this pick, he's perfect for the Texans at NT thus the reason I put him in my last mock in the 2nd round, but getting Thompson late in the 2nd will require some luck.
3. Schwartz, I really like the player but I think he goes in the late 2nd round so this pick will also require some luck.
4a. Robinson, I like this pick, decent/good quality in the 4th for depth.
4b. Egnew, I like this pick, I'd hope for Ladarius Green down here but if not available I think Egnew is a good 2nd option if we take a TE.
5. Fuller, I don't think I'd touch this guy in the draft he has just imploded from what he was last year and his potential. He had a bad Combine, Pro Day, Senior Bowl, and senior season. He had some injuries but he also dropped the ball alot and wasn't even the best receiver on his team. This is a very deep WR class and we can do better.
6. Bullock, this could be the best pick in your mock as he should lock down the K position for the next 10-15 yrs..
7. Page, I don't know anything about this guy but it's a 7th round pick that most likely won't make the team anyway so why not.

I'd sure like to see a quality ILB somewhere in your mock.
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Old 04-05-2012   #19
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
Dalton was selected in the 2nd round (35th overall) last year.
My bad. Still the same effect though.
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Old 04-05-2012   #20
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Default Re: Dutch's Mock Draft v1.0

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Maybe, maybe not. I could see a player with the experience of Weeden become a solid back-up in short order if this should happen.
True, but you don't want to draft a back up with your first round slot.
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