Grantland: Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Arian Foster

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by GP

If Arian Foster gets away, I'm all for giving up our #26, the first round pick we get in exchange for Foster leaving Houston, and maybe even next year's first round pick (and our 3rd rounder this year) for the #2 spot and grab RG3.

Because if we're going to lose our franchise RB, the guy whom I think is what makes this offense "go" no matter who is QB, then I want an Arian Foster-type FREAKAZOID at the QB position who can beat teams throwing or running, pick your poison.

I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

[GP]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

That was two years ago in 2010, too. Not so in 2011.

Both AJ and Schaub went down with major injuries, not a mere tweaked hamstring like Foster had in preseason and beginning of 2011 reg season.

I would stake this team's future on Arian Foster at this point. And if he's gone, there has to be an upgrade at QB because we all know full well that the chances of Schaub returning to 2010 form is somewhere between slim and none. Schaub > Yates. But is post-Lisfranc Schaub > Yates? And is Yates got the juice to get it done if he doesn't have a formidable RB like Arian Foster and teams are keying on Ben Tate every Sunday?

I "get it" that Schaub is not a bum. But IF you had the chance to grab a prospect like RG3, since you've lost Foster and you don't know if Schaub will fully bounce back AND you don't know if Yates has the stuff, why don't you take the gamble? Everything else on this team is NOT a gamble unless 2011 was a fluke. The only gamble you're taking is the two 1st rounders you have this year and probably next year's first too. In essence, treat your 2nd round picks in 2012 and 2013 as if it was your 1st round picks...because you'd be drafting somewhere between 26 and 32 anyways in the 1st round next year.

I know there's no way. I see a more prudent course to follow, to save the 1st rounders and stay the course, etc. It's like in Godfather when Tessio chose poorly...Michael admits it was the right play, it just didn't work out for Tessio. Kubiak doesn't want to become the next Tessio. He will stay the course and not go Daniel Snyder all of a sudden.

Which brings us back to Arian Foster. Because Kubiak will stay the course with Schaub and Yates (and might add another prospect like he did with Yates in 2011) I am betting that this means Kubiak demands Arian Foster be signed long-term so as to give Yates the security blanket he's going to need. If your young gun QB is to have a sporting chance, he has to have as many weapons as he can get. That's my bet. Kubiak NEEDS Foster if he stays the course with what he has QB.

[b0ng]

Originally Posted by GP

If Arian Foster gets away, I'm all for giving up our #26, the first round pick we get in exchange for Foster leaving Houston, and maybe even next year's first round pick (and our 3rd rounder this year) for the #2 spot and grab RG3.

Because if we're going to lose our franchise RB, the guy whom I think is what makes this offense "go" no matter who is QB, then I want an Arian Foster-type FREAKAZOID at the QB position who can beat teams throwing or running, pick your poison.

But if we lose Foster and just ho-hum along as if we're fine, then Yates nor Lisfranc Schaub is going to do jack squat with a depleted and aging AJ and a few welterweights for WR2 and WR3. Period.

RG3 should be the plan if a team steals Foster form us. You're already drafting #26 anyways, so it's basically an early 2nd round pick as far as I am concerned. And we would have lost our playmaker in Foster, but we got an extra first rounder for him...so parlay those picks and maybe another first in 2013 and maybe a 3rd somewhere in either 2012 or 2013 and just stun the world and send a big EFF YOU! to the NFL nation--Oh, you thought we would just curl up and die when Foster left? We zombie, bro. We just. Keep. Going.

I don't know about that. If RG3 becomes a generational player that carries your team to multiple superbowls then yes, this becomes an ideal scenario. I just don't know because along with losing AF, you're also giving up some good draft picks that you could use to build around him.

That being said, if it was Andrew Luck, I'd probably say go for it. No disrespect to RG3, but I just like Andrew Luck way more as a prospect, and he's not going to be in play unless the Colts go all Matt Millen on us.

[Playoffs]

It appears to me that the Texans almost have no choice but to franchise Arian, and then pay him when the cap jumps next year ... taking into account Mario & Myers???

[The1ApplePie]

If the Bengals nab Arian, then the Texans can use that second 1st on another good impact player.

Landing say DE/OLB Nick Perry and a WR at the bottom of the first could be transformative. You'd still have Ben Tate and with the way RBs slide in the draft these days, you may have a shot at a great second-tier RB like LaMichael James at the bottom of the second.

[Carr Bombed]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

One of three things will happen by Monday:

1. he will sign a new deal
2. he will get the franchise tag
3. he will get a restricted FA offer

There is no way the deadlines pass without one of those things happen. So, worst case scenario is #3 and someone signs him away but we get their first round pick this year. Not ideal... but a far cry from getting nothing.

To me a late first round pick is almost nothing when you lose a player with Foster's skill set and talent.

You do not let players like him get away. It would be the equivalent of letting Andre go in his mid 20s. They have to lock this guy up and if they can't then they need to franchise tag him where they have a entire year to try to lock him up. Option 3 isn't a option that they should take.

[Nawzer]

Has there been any news regarding Foster? Tomorrow's the deadline for the franchise tag I believe and I'm just surprised that there's been no news from the Texans. I think they will tag him and he won't be happy but the Texans are not in a good position salary cap wise.

[Carr Bombed]

Originally Posted by Nawzer

Has there been any news regarding Foster? Tomorrow's the deadline for the franchise tag I believe and I'm just surprised that there's been no news from the Texans. I think they will tag him and he won't be happy but the Texans are not in a good position salary cap wise.

I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

[Nawzer]

Originally Posted by Carr Bombed

I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

Yeah the Saints tagged Brees, the Ravens tagged Rice, but nothing from the Texans yet. I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Also, there seems to be nothing from the Houston media members either.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by Carr Bombed

I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

Originally Posted by Nawzer

Yeah the Saints tagged Brees, the Ravens tagged Rice, but nothing from the Texans yet. I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Also, there seems to be nothing from the Houston media members either.

Sometimes no news can be good news. It might be the Texans feel closer to getting a deal done with Foster than Baltimore or NO did with Rice and Brees. Doesn't matter when the tag gets slapped on as long as it is before the deadline.

[Jackie Chiles]

I won't have any problem with the team franchising Arian but I believe there is a great deal of upside in making him a RFA and it has absolutely nothing to do with the first round pick we could receive as compensation.

If, for instance, Arian and his agent are negotiating based off that ridiculous Chris Johnson contract we are not going to be able to come to terms with him. Let him hit free agency and the market can dictate his value. I believe he would get a lucrative offer but I very much doubt there is a single team in the league that gives him something outrageous.

I also don't believe another team could come up with an offer we could not match, front-loading be damned. If we have to cut/restructure to fit him in there won't be a problem imo. Plus, if the deal is heavily front-loaded its most likely not going to be a cap killer in the long run.

Now if some team does do the unthinkable and offers him Chris Johnson money we wind up with their first round pick in a worst case scenario and probably increase our chances at retaining Mario. Certainly there is some risk but I think there is some serious reward potential in letting the market set his value.

[Playoffs]

Interesting that if we franchise Foster -- I think we will -- his contract will be $7.7 million.

If we franchise Mario(won't happen), his contract would be $22.9 million.

[drs23]

Typical Texans MO. We won't know anything until after it's done, and then perhaps not even hear it from the team.

[GP]

Originally Posted by b0ng

I don't know about that. If RG3 becomes a generational player that carries your team to multiple superbowls then yes, this becomes an ideal scenario. I just don't know because along with losing AF, you're also giving up some good draft picks that you could use to build around him.

That being said, if it was Andrew Luck, I'd probably say go for it. No disrespect to RG3, but I just like Andrew Luck way more as a prospect, and he's not going to be in play unless the Colts go all Matt Millen on us.

Never underestimate the possibility that Irsay all of a sudden flips and drafts RG3 under the power of the moment.

If that happened, and we had 2 first rounders and wanted to add some more to the Rams for the #2...we could get Andrew Luck.

I'd actually like to see the Texans try a ballsy move that like, tbh. I think either of those guys, RG3 or Luck, will be great QBs.

[Nawzer]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Sometimes no news can be good news. It might be the Texans feel closer to getting a deal done with Foster than Baltimore or NO did with Rice and Brees. Doesn't matter when the tag gets slapped on as long as it is before the deadline.

Well I wasn't referring to good or bad news. Just the lack of news regarding Foster. You may be right that no news is good new, but I wouldn't mind if Foster did get tagged. I'm scared of giving running backs big contracts just they tend to not last too long. A year to year situation with Foster might not be such a bad thing for the Texans.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Carr Bombed

To me a late first round pick is almost nothing when you lose a player with Foster's skill set and talent.

You do not let players like him get away. It would be the equivalent of letting Andre go in his mid 20s. They have to lock this guy up and if they can't then they need to franchise tag him where they have a entire year to try to lock him up. Option 3 isn't a option that they should take.

From what someone else told me, I think it was Champion Texan, after tagging Foster we'd only have until July 17th to do a long-term deal. After that, you cannot sign him to a long-term contract until after the last regular season game of 2012. Sucks, huh?

[Dutchrudder]

Marshawn Lynch just re-signed with the seahawks for 18 million guaranteed out of 31 million total. Not sure how many years, but 4 or more could set the market a bit lower for Foster.

[Thorn]

It's interesting to read some of the comments in here after hearing the news Foster has a five year deal.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

No they don't depend on the running back to move the ball in between the 20's, but Arian is Mr. touchdown.

[GP]

Originally Posted by Thorn

It's interesting to read some of the comments in here after hearing the news Foster has a five year deal.

I was in favor of making him the main priority. Glad the Texans listened to me.