History Repeated Mock

[TimeKiller]

This is my best attempt at doing what the Texans normally do. There are a few common threads that run through all Smithiak drafts. Athletic defensive players in the 1st. LBs and RBs in the 2nd. 3rd is usually a line pick. Usually offensive skill players and defensive backs in later rounds. Anyway, this actually not a bad draft even though some of the picks and rounds taken don't make a whole lotta sense. Interesting exercize if anyone else is interested in trying to pinpoint some the Texans' draft trends!

1 - Fletcher Cox, DE/DT, Mississippi State
6'4'' 295 lbs. 4.95-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyd8kpQVz0w

The Texans have always taken elite defensive athletes first and foremost and this year will be no exception. Cox fits the bill and is still capable of adding weight. Agile in short spaces and strong enough to bully his way into any gap he's a real tough run stopper. His quickness provides some pass rush though he's not a particularly polished sack artist. He's better pass rushing than Cody and better getting to the ball carrier than Smith. He might not start the games but he'll be finishing them providing depth, positional/schematic versatility and another highly athletic, quality defensive lineman. As a durable and experienced starter in the SEC he's proven himself worthy of this pick. Feed the beast. Build the trenches. Defense wins championships.

2 - Doug Martin, RB/PR, Boise State
5'9'' 219 lbs. 4.48-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4yCMXMK-bY

The Texans have either taken LBs or RBs in the 2nd and this year will be no exception. Drawing comparison to Ray Rice, he gives the Texans depth of strength, a Cerberus to keep the ball churning down the field. Nicknamed "muscle hamster" he's a well built athlete capable of running through the lines, flashing the burst to cut and blow through holes. I think he's a good ZBS fit, someone who could get lost behind his OL before cutting back, juking a safety out of his socks and taking it the distance. Offers some punt return ability as a bonus.

3 - Brandon Mosley, OT/OG, Auburn
6'5'' 305 lbs. 5.22-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaaFp...eature=related
(RT #75)

Among other not so hot selections, the Texans have drafted a few successful OL in the 3rd, so this year will be no different! Signed to Auburn as a TE (and you know that matters), a late bloomer with upward potential as a pass blocker. Naturally blocks using his length and strong base. Effective run blocker, needs some work but can consistently get to the 2nd level and pancake off balance defenders. Could be the swing tackle but will push Smith for time on the interior.

4 - Tyler Nielsen, LB/ST, Iowa
6'3'' 235 lbs. 4.45-40
http://nflmocks.com/2011/11/22/tyler...outing-report/

'backers, TEs or defensive backs AND THIS YEAR WILL BE NO DIFFERENT!!! Length and agility make him adept in coverage with the strength to play on the edge and bring down ball carriers. Needs to learn how to rush the QB to get on the field but could play backup anywhere behind the line and will upgrade special teams coverage. Smart player with lots of upside.

5 - Gerell Robinson, WR, Arizona State
6'4'' 223 lbs. 4.58-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJuLDmI-o8U

This one is really wide open but the last few years have been defensive backs and offensive skill players...plus the need to improve WR is something that will obviously be addressed in the first 4 rounds. Since I'm doing a mock based on what usually goes down my justification is a QB and a TE = offensive skill players so WR can be picked. Plus the defensive players they've picked in the 5th have all been awful, Okam, Keo, Brandon Harrison and Sherrick McMannis...This is a TE sized WR, huge target, gets open and makes the catch. I think as a slot guy who would be asked to run short and simple routes he could be a possession receiver capable of moving the chains consistently. Lacks burst, not really a big play threat but if coached and played properly could be setting the offense up for a lot of 2nd and 3's. I think he might be a target as a later round prospect anyway, regardless if the Texans do the "what they always do" thing or not.

6- Asa Jackson, CB/KR, Cal Poly
5'10'' 193 lbs. 4.40-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfiNU02HFWE

I hate the position selected here but they've taken a few DBs the last couple years in the 6th so....THIS YEAR WILL BE NO ok ok you get it. Probably better suited for zone coverage than man but has the athleticism to be good if he takes to NFL coaching. Kick return ability as a bonus.

7 - Derek Moye, WR, Penn State
6'5'' 210 lbs. 4.54-40
http://www.gopsusports.com/sports/m-...e_derek00.html

Couple WR taken in the 7th over Smithiak's time too so here it is. Extremely lanky WR who could push the coverage deep and get up to get the ball over a CB. Highly productive WR at Penn State. This guy has serious potential with his size and skill, another guy the Texans may look at as a later round pick in addition (hopefully) to an early round pick.

[PMSTRIKER]

Great Mock! I have Fletcher in the first as well but don't you think you waited too long to address the wide receiver position? A 5th rounder just won't cut it!

[HouSportsWriter]

0.0 .. one question do you seriusly think we will draft a RB before WR?

heck

Foster...Tate...Ward...if ward returns


A.j...and then what.. Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter but kevin should be number 2 WR


other then that i like the picks

[TimeKiller]

Originally Posted by PMSTRIKER

Great Mock! I have Fletcher in the first as well but don't you think you waited too long to address the wide receiver position? A 5th rounder just won't cut it!

Indeed, if it were based on my thoughts of the team moving forward there would be an earlier pick. That's not the point here though, this is to find trends in the Texans' process. They've never taken a WR before round 3, why would that change? Need? I can honestly say I've never seen a pick that was based purely on need. I truly believe they have a few concepts that shape their process but ultimately BPA is their mode of operation.

Originally Posted by HouSportsWriter

0.0 .. one question do you seriusly think we will draft a RB before WR?

heck

Foster...Tate...Ward...if ward returns


A.j...and then what.. Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter but kevin should be number 2 WR


other then that i like the picks

Between Robinson, Moye and Lestar Jean, while still having Walter and AJ is an entirely better core than JJ, Mason and Bryant Johnson. Sooo....

Yeah I think it's entirely possible. Martin is a shifty runner with explosion and strength. His stature also plays to his benefit and he brings a few things to the table that neither Foster, Tate nor Ward bring. This is a running team, FEED THE BEAST!!!

[PMSTRIKER]

Hmm interesting point, but imo I feel like the front office doesn't necessarily follow trends all the time. Trends are made to be broken. For example, RB was a major need last year even with how promising Foster looked in the last two games. So what did the Texans do? They went BPA, for that position. They drafted Ben Tate even though the "Denver philosophy" is to plug and play running backs.

Either way, I trust our front office to make the right call. As long as we get a receiver in this draft that can step in and make an impact on this team, I will be satisfied.

[TimeKiller]

Originally Posted by PMSTRIKER

Hmm interesting point, but imo I feel like the front office doesn't necessarily follow trends all the time. Trends are made to be broken. For example, RB was a major need last year even with how promising Foster looked in the last two games. So what did the Texans do? They went BPA, for that position. They drafted Ben Tate even though the "Denver philosophy" is to plug and play running backs.

Either way, I trust our front office to make the right call. As long as we get a receiver in this draft that can step in and make an impact on this team, I will be satisfied.

Records are made to be broken. Trends are just trends friends. Look at the players taken between Tate and Earl Mitchell. Not an overly inspiring group, t'wouldn't be much of a stretch to call Tate BPA.

[PMSTRIKER]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/7...ookie-ben-tate

"I would caution anyone subscribing to this thinking though. As Dennison pointed out, Tate was drafted in the second round of the draft. This represents a large investment, especially for the Texans, who had previously never drafted a running back prior to the third round.

Not only did they set the aforementioned benchmark for the franchise, but they traded up for Tate, meaning that they saw very good value after trading down from their original second-round slot."

I know it's not the best source but what they have to say is insightful. The Texans may have taken BPA but remember, they traded up for Tate. Another first for the Texans who are conservative when it comes to the draft.

[beerlover]

I seriously think we need to do a mock together, we both need help

[Rey]

Originally Posted by TimeKiller

Records are made to be broken. Trends are just trends friends. Look at the players taken between Tate and Earl Mitchell. Not an overly inspiring group, t'wouldn't be much of a stretch to call Tate BPA.

Wasn't Tate the earliest RB we've ever taken?

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Rey

Wasn't Tate the earliest RB we've ever taken?

technically no, that was some guy named Tony Hollings I think? rep

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by TimeKiller

This is my best attempt at doing what the Texans normally do. There are a few common threads that run through all Smithiak drafts. Athletic defensive players in the 1st. LBs and RBs in the 2nd. 3rd is usually a line pick. Usually offensive skill players and defensive backs in later rounds. Anyway, this actually not a bad draft even though some of the picks and rounds taken don't make a whole lotta sense. Interesting exercize if anyone else is interested in trying to pinpoint some the Texans' draft trends!

I do have some concern about Wade's "second-year defense" record. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans decided to stock up on defensive players again, to ensure we have enough depth to finish the season strong.

Of course this leaves Kubiak having to make due on the offensive side of the ball again.

Now, a 2nd round RB..... I like it, I believe we need to add more talent to that side of the ball. If we're possibly thinking about trading Ben Tate... hmmm.... I like the 3-headed hell-hound reference, but Gary had a hard enough time getting Tate & Foster involved in the same game. He's had trouble getting OD & Joel featured, much less James Casey..... maybe it's our QB, always forcing it to Andre or looking for 'ole reliable 23... but as bad as our WR corp is without Andre, we have a plethora of receiving options that have a hard time finding the ball coming their way.

Then drafting a RB once in 6 drafts doesn't really make it a trend... should be a LB here.

3rd round, TE/OL.... yeah, that's about right.

4th round should be a DB.. safety

5th, 6th, & 7th would be WRs if I had any say.
But I digress.

[rmartin65]

Originally Posted by TimeKiller

This is my best attempt at doing what the Texans normally do. There are a few common threads that run through all Smithiak drafts. Athletic defensive players in the 1st. LBs and RBs in the 2nd. 3rd is usually a line pick. Usually offensive skill players and defensive backs in later rounds. Anyway, this actually not a bad draft even though some of the picks and rounds taken don't make a whole lotta sense. Interesting exercize if anyone else is interested in trying to pinpoint some the Texans' draft trends!

1 - Fletcher Cox, DE/DT, Mississippi State
6'4'' 295 lbs. 4.95-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyd8kpQVz0w

The Texans have always taken elite defensive athletes first and foremost and this year will be no exception. Cox fits the bill and is still capable of adding weight. Agile in short spaces and strong enough to bully his way into any gap he's a real tough run stopper. His quickness provides some pass rush though he's not a particularly polished sack artist. He's better pass rushing than Cody and better getting to the ball carrier than Smith. He might not start the games but he'll be finishing them providing depth, positional/schematic versatility and another highly athletic, quality defensive lineman. As a durable and experienced starter in the SEC he's proven himself worthy of this pick. Feed the beast. Build the trenches. Defense wins championships.

2 - Doug Martin, RB/PR, Boise State
5'9'' 219 lbs. 4.48-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4yCMXMK-bY

The Texans have either taken LBs or RBs in the 2nd and this year will be no exception. Drawing comparison to Ray Rice, he gives the Texans depth of strength, a Cerberus to keep the ball churning down the field. Nicknamed "muscle hamster" he's a well built athlete capable of running through the lines, flashing the burst to cut and blow through holes. I think he's a good ZBS fit, someone who could get lost behind his OL before cutting back, juking a safety out of his socks and taking it the distance. Offers some punt return ability as a bonus.

3 - Brandon Mosley, OT/OG, Auburn
6'5'' 305 lbs. 5.22-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaaFp...eature=related
(RT #75)

Among other not so hot selections, the Texans have drafted a few successful OL in the 3rd, so this year will be no different! Signed to Auburn as a TE (and you know that matters), a late bloomer with upward potential as a pass blocker. Naturally blocks using his length and strong base. Effective run blocker, needs some work but can consistently get to the 2nd level and pancake off balance defenders. Could be the swing tackle but will push Smith for time on the interior.

4 - Tyler Nielsen, LB/ST, Iowa
6'3'' 235 lbs. 4.45-40
http://nflmocks.com/2011/11/22/tyler...outing-report/

'backers, TEs or defensive backs AND THIS YEAR WILL BE NO DIFFERENT!!! Length and agility make him adept in coverage with the strength to play on the edge and bring down ball carriers. Needs to learn how to rush the QB to get on the field but could play backup anywhere behind the line and will upgrade special teams coverage. Smart player with lots of upside.

5 - Gerell Robinson, WR, Arizona State
6'4'' 223 lbs. 4.58-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJuLDmI-o8U

This one is really wide open but the last few years have been defensive backs and offensive skill players...plus the need to improve WR is something that will obviously be addressed in the first 4 rounds. Since I'm doing a mock based on what usually goes down my justification is a QB and a TE = offensive skill players so WR can be picked. Plus the defensive players they've picked in the 5th have all been awful, Okam, Keo, Brandon Harrison and Sherrick McMannis...This is a TE sized WR, huge target, gets open and makes the catch. I think as a slot guy who would be asked to run short and simple routes he could be a possession receiver capable of moving the chains consistently. Lacks burst, not really a big play threat but if coached and played properly could be setting the offense up for a lot of 2nd and 3's. I think he might be a target as a later round prospect anyway, regardless if the Texans do the "what they always do" thing or not.

6- Asa Jackson, CB/KR, Cal Poly
5'10'' 193 lbs. 4.40-40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfiNU02HFWE

I hate the position selected here but they've taken a few DBs the last couple years in the 6th so....THIS YEAR WILL BE NO ok ok you get it. Probably better suited for zone coverage than man but has the athleticism to be good if he takes to NFL coaching. Kick return ability as a bonus.

7 - Derek Moye, WR, Penn State
6'5'' 210 lbs. 4.54-40
http://www.gopsusports.com/sports/m-...e_derek00.html

Couple WR taken in the 7th over Smithiak's time too so here it is. Extremely lanky WR who could push the coverage deep and get up to get the ball over a CB. Highly productive WR at Penn State. This guy has serious potential with his size and skill, another guy the Texans may look at as a later round pick in addition (hopefully) to an early round pick.

Interesting idea. I had a similar idea a while back in analyzing the conferences the Texans drafted players out of. But looking at position is an interesting take.

1) My opposition to Cox have been noted in a couple of threads now. I see a player that is not a game changer. I dont think he will bust, I just dont think he is a difference maker. He seems like a rotation guy for ten years, and maybe even a starter, but one that constantly has to defend his position as a starter. I would not be upset at the pick, but a little disappointed.

2) I really like Martin as a player (better than Pead, who a lot of people like), but where would he play? Behind Foster for sure. And Tate had a heck of a season. So 3rd string and PR? That can be addressed later. I realize that this is a history mock, but I am hoping for different position.

3) I dont know anything about this guy, but I like upgrading the OL.

4) I am down. Solid player, offers ST value.

5) I like going for a big receiver, absolutely no qualms here.

6) I really dont mind this pick. Like you said, we know a CB is coming. Jackson could be a heck of a player, and has PR value. I like it.

7) Meh, never impressed me, but I am not going to say no to a receiver. I might go for a guy with PR value, but that is just me.

I think you mock lists out the Texans patterns pretty well. The Dlineman, a offensive skill player, some OL help in the middle, and then some more shots at skill positions.

[Rey]

Really, the only pick I love is Asa Jackson...

I have him pegged as our 5th or 6th rounder...

The rest I'm just "meh" about...

[Dutchrudder]

Good work on the mock, but looking at that list makes me hope that history doesn't repeat itself...

[TimeKiller]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

I do have some concern about Wade's "second-year defense" record. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans decided to stock up on defensive players again, to ensure we have enough depth to finish the season strong. I think they've pretty well established that they are willing to go for athletic defenders in the 1st no matter the situation on offense. We shouldn't be to surprised if that continues, especially with Wade leading a defensive turnaround.


Now, a 2nd round RB..... I like it, I believe we need to add more talent to that side of the ball. If we're possibly thinking about trading Ben Tate... hmmm.... I like the 3-headed hell-hound reference, but Gary had a hard enough time getting Tate & Foster involved in the same game. He's had trouble getting OD & Joel featured, much less James Casey..... maybe it's our QB, always forcing it to Andre or looking for 'ole reliable 23... but as bad as our WR corp is without Andre, we have a plethora of receiving options that have a hard time finding the ball coming their way.

Then drafting a RB once in 6 drafts doesn't really make it a trend... should be a LB here.

Caught me. It should be an LB for sure, I just wanted to move that back to the 4th, another LB heavy round so that I wouldn't have to choose another mid round DB or TE (a few other trends that got left out). I know this one is the biggest stretch but potentially has the most benefit. This is, after all, a running team. What if the FO screws with Foster and he leaves? Let's not forget that it's practically cake for a 3rd string guy to become a starter and has to be able to succeed. This could be a homerun pick, the comparisons to Ray Rice and MJD have me all excited. There may not be enough balls to go around but that's something the players are going to have to deal with, to me that's part of being on a good team.

3rd round, TE/OL.... yeah, that's about right. Dude can block.
4th round should be a DB.. safety Or a TE! If I took a DB here then what to do in the 6th?

5th, 6th, & 7th would be WRs if I had any say.
But I digress.

Originally Posted by rmartin65

2) I really like Martin as a player (better than Pead, who a lot of people like), but where would he play? Behind Foster for sure. And Tate had a heck of a season. So 3rd string and PR? That can be addressed later. I realize that this is a history mock, but I am hoping for different position.
Gotta have something that inspires the discussion though right? Running game would go monster if they had this many weapons.

3) I dont know anything about this guy, but I like upgrading the OL.

Don't pass him up when you do OL guys. He's good.

7) Meh, never impressed me, but I am not going to say no to a receiver. I might go for a guy with PR value, but that is just me.

He seems like a Kubiak pick. He has excellent size and they've spent their 7th on much less!

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Good work on the mock, but looking at that list makes me hope that history doesn't repeat itself...

Daaaaaannng haha well, despite doing the repeater thing I did try to select decent players. I think Martin is one to watch no matter where he ends up. Mosley could be another and Gerell Robinson has serious potential as a possession/slot receiver.

[mussop]

I like this idea of a mock.
1st Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Now the second rated DT by Mayock. Can dominate in stretches. Great at getting off the line. Heady player that plays with alot of emotion. Think of a smart, bigger A Smith.

2nd Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Has fallen on most boards after a so so senior season. Still there is no other ILB in this draft with his explosion to the ball. He really fits this defense well and will add the extra threat of blitz up the middle that Ryan's just isn't capable of. Phillips coaching will return him to his JR year play where he was considered dominate.

3rd Nate Potter, OT, Boise State or Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
Both these guys are perfect fits for our scheme and have all the attributes we seem to look for in OL.

4th Jake Bequette, OLB, Arkansas
Had a bad first half of year but blew it up in the last four games. Can contribute on special teams right away and is talented enough to see reps behind Reed and Barwin sooner than later.

5th Winston Guy, Jr., S, Kentucky

Will be a solid special teams player immediately. At 6'1" and 216 LBS Loves to hit, good open field tackler, has experience at CB so is solid in coverage. Also has kick return experience.


6th Jarrett Boykin, WR, Virginia Tech

I love this guy. If he had played at a more pass oriented school would be better known. Has the size 6'2" and 220 LBS with huge hands that catch the ball away from his body. Is Andre like with the ball. Not elusive but a bull to bring down. Very good blocker. Had a personal-best 440-pound front squat and a 40-inch vertical jump during off-season testing. Walters eventual replacement.

7th Evan Rodriguez, FB/TE, Temple

Versatile player that can play TE or FB ala Casey. Is really good after the catch. Will be the number one selling jersey in south Texas.

[TimeKiller]

Originally Posted by mussop

I like this idea of a mock.
1st Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Now the second rated DT by Mayock. Can dominate in stretches. Great at getting off the line. Heady player that plays with alot of emotion. Think of a smart, bigger A Smith.

2nd Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Has fallen on most boards after a so so senior season. Still there is no other ILB in this draft with his explosion to the ball. He really fits this defense well and will add the extra threat of blitz up the middle that Ryan's just isn't capable of. Phillips coaching will return him to his JR year play where he was considered dominate.

3rd Nate Potter, OT, Boise State or Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
Both these guys are perfect fits for our scheme and have all the attributes we seem to look for in OL.

4th Jake Bequette, OLB, Arkansas
Had a bad first half of year but blew it up in the last four games. Can contribute on special teams right away and is talented enough to see reps behind Reed and Barwin sooner than later.

5th Winston Guy, Jr., S, Kentucky

Will be a solid special teams player immediately. At 6'1" and 216 LBS Loves to hit, good open field tackler, has experience at CB so is solid in coverage. Also has kick return experience.


6th Jarrett Boykin, WR, Virginia Tech

I love this guy. If he had played at a more pass oriented school would be better known. Has the size 6'2" and 220 LBS with huge hands that catch the ball away from his body. Is Andre like with the ball. Not elusive but a bull to bring down. Very good blocker. Had a personal-best 440-pound front squat and a 40-inch vertical jump during off-season testing. Walters eventual replacement.

7th Evan Rodriguez, FB/TE, Temple

Versatile player that can play TE or FB ala Casey. Is really good after the catch. Will be the number one selling jersey in south Texas.

Nice attempt, it's harder than it seems right?

Gotta get a TE or CB in the 4th if you go LB in the 2nd.