Momentum, Downfall, and the Bengals

[PockyAF]

How does one explain the dynamics that goes behind this team's ability to rise up and win 3 game after our starting QB's season was cut short?

Winning those three with our back-up QB, against some of the best defenses in the league.. with two of those team being some of the best team in the league overall. Two on the road, and one against a Superbowl contender in our home. We were able to win with the same swarming defense that led our team through our first 13 games. The star-studded RB duo that's muscled our offense through the entire season. And an unknown rookie QB that pulled some late game heroics, and made big plays in his two and a half games.

How can you explain the action of a team that lost to two teams with a combined record of 7-22, only to overcome the adversities prior to those two losses to defeat a team coming into our house 7-4 with a stout rush defense and a 7-5 team on the road that just recently was led their division over the Ravens and Steelers.

A running back that rushed for over 100 yards against a Falcons that has yet to allow a triple-digit yard rusher prior to that game in Rockin' Reliant Stadium. A 5th-round rookie QB that led two led game-winning drives, and one on the road in the final three minutes after being down 16-3 at halftime. A hard as steel defense that's been anchoring our team the entire season.

How can you explain it? Momentum.

The same momentum that help the Denver Broncos defeat the Cowboys and Patriots in 2009 when they went 6-0 before their bye week. The same momentum that carried the Colts in '06, Giants in '07, and Packers in '08.

All three dropped games to "bad" teams in their final weeks leading to their wildcard game.. two of them entered the playoffs with losing record in their last 3 games. The Colts jumped started their momentum with a 1 game winning streak at home against the Dolphin in their season finale.. after losing to the lowly David-Carr led Texans in the week prior (see the irony here?).

The Giants lost two of their three and but built momentum by giving the Patriots their toughest challenge of the season in their final game of the regular season.

The Packers were 2-2 to end the season, including a loss to the bottom-dwellers Detriot Lions, but built momentum on a two game winning-streak heading into their WC game.. after a season of inconsistent play.

They all pulled it together and rise up as one unit to make a run in the playoffs. Even with all the question marks on their team, whether it was their ability to play championship caliber defense or their consistencies, they were able to eliminate those uncertainties once the playoffs came around and channel a different kind of beast that they hadn't had all season.

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How this relates to us..

Going by the match-ups of the final two weeks, I believe the Jets will not be able to grab the final WC spot. The Jets are a terrible road team, and I believe they will drop their season finale against the surging Miami Dolphins. It's already a forgone conclusion to me that Rex will get thrash by the inconsistent, Eli and gang.

Which leaves the Bengal... facing the Cardinals, and a Ravens team that could likely rest their starter on the road @ Cinci (depending on the Steelers/Roeslthberger).

This will carve out a rematch of the Bengals and Texans in Reliant Stadium. They have proven all year long that they just can not beat a team with a winning record.. on the road with a rapid, rocking stadium. This is very much in our favors, along with Wade and AJ coming back.

The Tennessee game is what will jumpstart our momentum, the Bengals game is what will springboard it.

The divisional game will be us vs. a rested Ravens game, in another rematch (sounds familiar to another Superbowl story just a year old)?

We have proven that we can win against good teams.. with the help of momentum. Now we will see our will to win; to see if we can bring out the beast in the big games like so many other unlikely team have done before.

If it's fate, then we will make a run towards greatness. We have the talents, characters, and unity of a team that is capable that and more.

[amazing80]

lets do this coach!!!! I hope Gary says something this motivating to the team

[TheCD]

Originally Posted by PockyAF

How can you explain it?

Luck.

Another poster tried to question my fanhood for saying this, but we could just as easily be 8-7 right now as we are 10-5 had Ryan not missed those easy deep balls, and the Bengals hadn't stopped running the ball on us, which was working. I want T.J. to succeed, but with him this offense is crippled and there is no way we can avoid that fact now. For some reason T.J. can't get the ball down the field, and this short/medium passing game is allowing the run to be stuffed when we need it to work the most. We were 1/10 on 3rd down last night. That is going to get us routed worse than when Peyton used to get one and done in the postseason.

[EllisUnit]

Let me explain it really simple, so that the less fortunate can understand, how many times did yates pass against the falcons and bengals ?

the bengals 44 pass attempts 300 yards we win
the falcons 25 pass attemps for 188 yards and we win

against carolina he had a lot of pass attempts but those all came in the 2nd half when we had no choice

and then against the colts he had 16 pass attempts HAHA

. I am no rocket scientist but come on this is common sense.

[TheCD]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

Let me explain it really simple, so that the less fortunate can understand, how many times did yates pass against the falcons and bengals ?

the bengals 44 pass attempts 300 yards we win
the falcons 25 pass attemps for 188 yards and we win

against carolina he had a lot of pass attempts but those all came in the 2nd half when we had no choice

and then against the colts he had 16 pass attempts HAHA

. I am no rocket scientist but come on this is common sense.

I understand your reasoning, but there is no doubt in my mind that if Schaub had only 16 attempts that game wouldn't have been close. I like Yates, but he needs every other aspect of the team to play well around him for us to succeed, and they haven't been doing that.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by TheCD

I understand your reasoning, but there is no doubt in my mind that if Schaub had only 16 attempts that game wouldn't have been close. I like Yates, but he needs every other aspect of the team to play well around him for us to succeed, and they haven't been doing that.

my point is that we are not consistently moving the ball just running it, the defense has been on the field WAY to much in the last 2 games, hell we hold the ball far longer when we get first downs, and we do that more often when we pass, especially with AJ out, they now all put an extra guy in the box.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

Let me explain it really simple, so that the less fortunate can understand, how many times did yates pass against the falcons and bengals ?

the bengals 44 pass attempts 300 yards we win
the falcons 25 pass attemps for 188 yards and we win

against carolina he had a lot of pass attempts but those all came in the 2nd half when we had no choice

and then against the colts he had 16 pass attempts HAHA

. I am no rocket scientist but come on this is common sense.

Your argument is not fully supported by all the available data:

Against the Saints we passed 39 times - we lost
Against the Raiders we passed 51 times - we lost
Against the Ravens we passed 37 times - we lost
Against Tampa we passed only 15 times - we won
Against the Steelers we passed only 21 times - we won

I would additionally point out that Yates was harrassed 7 out of the 16 times he dropped back to pass - four sacks, three pressures. That means nearly every other time Yates went back to pass he got hit.

And we only converted 1 third down out of ten opportunities. Hard to get passing stats built up when we can't sustain a drive.

The only thing that was remotely working was Foster. Even Ben Tate was ineffective last night; 6 carries for -1 yard.

Injuries and QB inexperience finally caught up with us last night. Pure and simple.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

Your argument is not fully supported by all the available data:

Against the Saints we passed 39 times - we lost
Against the Raiders we passed 51 times - we lost
Against the Ravens we passed 37 times - we lost
Against Tampa we passed only 15 times - we won
Against the Steelers we passed only 21 times - we won

I would additionally point out that Yates was harrassed 7 out of the 16 times he dropped back to pass - four sacks, three pressures. That means nearly every other time Yates went back to pass he got hit.

And we only converted 1 third down out of ten opportunities. Hard to get passing stats built up when we can't sustain a drive.

The only thing that was remotely working was Foster. Even Ben Tate was ineffective last night; 6 carries for -1 yard.

Injuries and QB inexperience finally caught up with us last night. Pure and simple.

i am talking about SINCE yates has been the starter, its a whole lot different without Schaub and AJ out there.

[TdotTexas2Step]

I posted this in another thread that died, but perhaps we need to just regain the approach we had pre-division crown:

I thought winning the division crown would finally push this team to carry themselves like an elite squad, walk into stadiums knowing they were the better the team, acting like it, playing like it.

But after these last two games, perhaps we work better as the underdog. Everyone doubting you, back against the ropes, maybe these last two games will make us feel that way again.

[Ranger Tom]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

And we only converted 1 third down out of ten opportunities. Hard to get passing stats built up when we can't sustain a drive.

And let's not forget HOW it was converted. That play was flat-out bizarre.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

i am talking about SINCE yates has been the starter, its a whole lot different without Schaub and AJ out there.

That's why I said this:
Injuries and QB inexperience finally caught up with us last night. Pure and simple.

It's not how many times you toss it around, it's knowing where to throw it to get the best effect.
And like you said yourself, the situation you find yourself in dictates how much you air it out and how much you try to burn clock by running. We threw it 44 times (again, as you mentioned) against the Bengals because we were playing catch up. We only threw it 25 times against the Falcons because the game was nip and tuck most of the way and we were trying to get a win in a tight game.

Check this out... In the Atlanta game, we got the winning score on a 19-play drive. We only threw it twice - unless you count that pick-six that got called back thanks to Dunta's holding penalty and the two other times Yates scrambled. So you could argue that there were 4-5 pass plays on that 19-play drive. Five pass plays out of a 19-play, game-winning drive. That's with Yates at QB and no A.J. We went run-heavy and were successful.

So I guess I don't see where your "pass more = better results" theory is completely valid. We have to see what's working and do that. Last night, given the sorry pass protection, passing wasn't really working. Using Foster was.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

That's why I said this:
Injuries and QB inexperience finally caught up with us last night. Pure and simple.

It's not how many times you toss it around, it's knowing where to throw it to get the best effect.
And like you said yourself, the situation you find yourself in dictates how much you air it out and how much you try to burn clock by running. We threw it 44 times (again, as you mentioned) against the Bengals because we were playing catch up. We only threw it 25 times against the Falcons because the game was nip and tuck most of the way and we were trying to get a win in a tight game.

Check this out... In the Atlanta game, we got the winning score on a 19-play drive. We only threw it twice - unless you count that pick-six that got called back thanks to Dunta's holding penalty and the two other times Yates scrambled. So you could argue that there were 4-5 pass plays on that 19-play drive. Five pass plays out of a 19-play, game-winning drive. That's with Yates at QB and no A.J. We went run-heavy and were successful.

So I guess I don't see where your "pass more = better results" theory is completely valid. We have to see what's working and do that. Last night, given the sorry pass protection, passing wasn't really working. Using Foster was.

even though we had the lead against the falcons we still stayed aggressive though, here we got 7 points in less than 1 minute into the game, that dont mean put the cruise control on with 59 minutes left, and thats exactly what he did.

[PockyAF]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

Your argument is not fully supported by all the available data:

Against the Saints we passed 39 times - we lost
Against the Raiders we passed 51 times - we lost
Against the Ravens we passed 37 times - we lost
Against Tampa we passed only 15 times - we won
Against the Steelers we passed only 21 times - we won

Yea, his statistic didn't make a whole lot of sense. TJ Yates threw 30 passes against the Panthers, but that didn't count because most of it came in the 2nd half? Alot of his passes against Cinci came in the second half, yet he won the game? I see no correlation that he was trying to make. And Obsi went ahead and debunk simple jack with the post from above.

--

Anyways, I found these excerpts from LZ interesting.. on why we we're seeing a limited playbook:

@squick3n that is exactly why I'm not in favor of opening it up for Yates now. Guys can't get open and he can't make tough veteran throws

@Dumonjic_Alen confidence is shaken badly. yates looks like a different guy after game 4 than he did after game 2. Bad sign

@texbrooks hey, he looked confident and won those first two games. I was excited too, but once DCs get film on you, things get tougher

@THEREALALLENOU oh, that's obvious it won't work in playoffs. Gary has to know he can't call a game like this and have any chance in plyoffs

@JeffSechelski @lancezierlein maybe he's trying not to kill the kids confidence before the playoffs. Air it out and have some balls
15 hours ago

LZ response: @JeffSechelski That is exactly what it is. It isn't going to matter though. The confidence looks gone.

@Decklid18 Like I said.... that playbook comes back out in week 1 of the playoffs with Dre back.

And for the dumbasses that think it's all Wade that got us to where we are now..

@Dumonjic_Alen And good defense, but their 3rd down conversions have been lousy since they lost Schaub & defense getting fatigued

@Dumonjic_Alen Their defensive line has taken a ton of snaps this year and w/ offense struggling, they are taking even more lately.

He defense would look like **** if the offense has stunk all year long. Kubiak has to work with a 3rd string QB who's confidence is in the ****ter now. Kubiak efficient offense w/ Schaub, along with Wade's defense got us this far... even with AJ or Mario.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by ObsiWan

That's why I said this:
Injuries and QB inexperience finally caught up with us last night. Pure and simple.

It's not how many times you toss it around, it's knowing where to throw it to get the best effect.
And like you said yourself, the situation you find yourself in dictates how much you air it out and how much you try to burn clock by running. We threw it 44 times (again, as you mentioned) against the Bengals because we were playing catch up. We only threw it 25 times against the Falcons because the game was nip and tuck most of the way and we were trying to get a win in a tight game.

Check this out... In the Atlanta game, we got the winning score on a 19-play drive. We only threw it twice - unless you count that pick-six that got called back thanks to Dunta's holding penalty and the two other times Yates scrambled. So you could argue that there were 4-5 pass plays on that 19-play drive. Five pass plays out of a 19-play, game-winning drive. That's with Yates at QB and no A.J. We went run-heavy and were successful.

So I guess I don't see where your "pass more = better results" theory is completely valid. We have to see what's working and do that. Last night, given the sorry pass protection, passing wasn't really working. Using Foster was.

We started that game out with AJ, i'm sure he was a big part of their defensive gameplan, if teams know you can ONLY run, it will get shut down, maybe not against the colts defense, but it'll be a different story against the ravens or steelers.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

my point is that we are not consistently moving the ball just running it, the defense has been on the field WAY to much in the last 2 games, hell we hold the ball far longer when we get first downs, and we do that more often when we pass, especially with AJ out, they now all put an extra guy in the box.

I agree with this & had been screaming it all last year when Matt put up 4000 yards to lead us to a 6-10 record.

I don't agree that we need to be putting the game in Tj Yates' hands.

I'd much rather lose now, with the game in the hands of Arian Foster & Brian Cushing than for these losses to be on Tj (the way the Carolina game was).

When we have the lead for most of the game, we've got to stay with our strengths (last year, it wasn't defense, this year it is).

Them boys on Kirby played an excellent game until that roughing the passer call when Jj was blocked into DanO

I'm not going to cry over spilled milk, or start pointing blame, or dwell on the past.

Thursday's game is an excellent stepping stone for a young team with a young QB working on a Super Bowl run. No reason to throw the baby out with the bath water, to go back to zero, to go back to the drawing board.

We left 12 points on the field Thursday, the most important thing right now, is find out what our mistakes were & find out how to get those 12 points next time (16+12=28).

We'll win most games we score 28

[PockyAF]

damn, I'm sexy