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Tiebreaker with Tennessee: Here's the Story
There is one, and only 1, mathematical possibility for the Titans to win a tiebreaker against Houston... Here's why:
Here is what has to happen for Tennessee to win a tiebreaker for the division with Houston:
Houston must lose to Indy, Cincinnati, and Tennessee and must beat Atlanta and Carolina.
Tennessee must lose to Buffalo and defeat Houston, Jacksonville, Indy, and New Orleans.
If all that happens, they will both finish 10-6, 1-1 head to head, with an 8-4 record vs. Common opponents, and a 7-5 conference record. The 5th tiebreaker would decide it. Even then, it is uncertain. I believe strength of victory is determined by the collected W-L record of each team's 10 wins. Under that scenario, here's where they stand:
Houston would be slightly behind Tennessee (approximately 2 wins total)... It would come down to Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Miami and Jacksonville vs. Baltimore, New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Denver's total wins over the final month.
Here are the 1st five tiebreakers:
1. Head to Head
2. Division Record
3. Common opponent Record
4. Conference Record
5. Strength of victory
There is no other way for the teams to tie and the Titans to win the tiebreaker. In essence, Tennessee must win the division outright.
Any other scenario with the two teams finishing with the same record would give the Texans the tiebreaker. Here are how things stand currently:
Houston 8-3, 4-0 in division, 5-1 common opponents, 7-2 conference
Tenn. 6-5, 1-2 in division, 3-2 common opponents, 4-4 conference
Realize that the common opponents will grow quickly. This week, Atlanta will be added to the mix because Houston plays them and Tennessee already has.
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