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Old 11-04-2011   #1
srrono
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Default Rotoworld match up CLE @ HOU

Rotoworld match up CLE @ HOU
Cleveland @ Houston

Averaging 29 weekly touches since retaking Houston's backfield from Ben Tate, Arian Foster has scored five TDs and averaged 162 total yards in five games. The Browns' defense has been competitive against the run this season, but was shredded for 160 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries (4.71 YPC) by 49ers backs last week. Cleveland ranks second in against the pass, so it's pretty clear which part of the defense the Texans should game plan to attack, particularly with Andre Johnson (hamstring) still out. With Adrian Peterson on a bye, Foster is the best fantasy running back play in the league this week. ... Matt Schaub has a difficult matchup with Cleveland's No. 2 run defense. While Schaub has done well to post a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 289-yard average in Johnson's four missed games, he's still only a borderline fantasy starter. Look for the Texans to go run-heavy in this one, limiting Schaub's pass attempts. I'd consider Schaub's Week 9 ceiling to be around 250 yards with two scores. In fantasy points per game, he's the No. 11 quarterback and not playing nearly as well as the numbers suggest.

Jacoby Jones has a better matchup than Kevin Walter, who is likely to see more of Joe Haden in coverage. Jones, though, is far from a trustworthy WR3. His four lines starting in place of Johnson this year: 1-9, 4-76-1, 2-27, 3-59. Jones isn't a terrible fantasy start, but it would probably be an upset if he exceeded four catches. ... Walter most often lines up at RWR, so he projects to face off with LCB Haden on the majority of plays. According to Pro Football Focus, Haden has allowed just 15-of-37 pass attempts (40.5%) against him to be complete this season for 212 yards (5.73 YPA) and one touchdown. The lone score occurred in Week 1, when Bengals fill-in QB Bruce Gradkowski called a quick snap with Cleveland's defense still in its huddle. Rookie A.J. Green was unguarded for the 41-yard TD. ... Schaub's target distribution over the last month (with no Andre Johnson): Walter 27, Jones 27, Owen Daniels 25, Derrick Mason 8. ... The Browns have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends with a weekly average of four catches for 49 yards, despite having faced a weak slate of players at the position. I like Daniels' chances of scoring in this one.

With Montario Hardesty out indefinitely, the Browns need Peyton Hillis back desperately. Chris Ogbonnaya was brutal in relief last week, managing 37 yards on 11 carries (3.36 YPC) with a fumble and was consistently stopped dead in his tracks. Ogbonnaya also dropped a pass and contributed to two Colt McCoy sacks with blown blitz pickups. Hillis may have a tough matchup with Houston's top-six run defense, but he should get large amounts of touches and snaps because players like Ogbonnaya lose games for their teams. ... McCoy's weak arm is killing Greg Little's fantasy value. Little makes virtually all of his catches on obvious passing downs in the slot, a high-traffic area where his after-catch skills go to waste with more defenders in the vicinity. McCoy can't connect outside the numbers, where Little sees one-on-one coverage and could go the distance after a broken tackle. Little is being force-fed with 30 targets over the past three weeks, so he's worthy of a WR3 start in 12-team leagues. But teammates are curbing his upside.

UPDATE: Hillis appeared to aggravate his hamstring injury in Friday’s practice, heaving away his helmet in frustration after a running drill. He’s unlikely to play in Week 9. Ogbonnaya should be grabbed in all leagues because he projects to receive 14-17 touches in Houston, and probably has a realistic chance to start against the Rams in Week 10.

Evan Moore's playing time went back in the gutter with Ben Watson playing a full game in Week 8. Jordan Norwood got more action in four-receiver sets, and it's now clear that Moore's usage depends heavily on Watson's availability. Moore was targeted twice, gaining 17 yards. ... Watson is scoreless since Week 4 and hasn't topped 64 yards all year. He's 18th in weekly fantasy points among tight ends. ... Here is McCoy's target distribution since the Browns' Week 5 bye: Little 30, Watson 15, Joshua Cribbs 14, Moore 11, Mohamed Massaquoi 9, Norwood 6. Massaquoi and Watson's targets have been affected by concussions, but I'd still have rouble trusting any Cleveland pass catcher behind Little in a fantasy league. ... The Texans rank fifth in the league against the pass. McCoy is the No. 15 fantasy quarterback and a clear-cut QB2. Long term, it's not a good sign for McCoy that he ranks second in the league in attempts per game, but 19th in passing yards. Cleveland will be in the hunt for a true franchise passer this offseason.

Score Prediction: Texans 23, Browns 16
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Old 11-04-2011   #2
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Default Re: Rotoworld match up CLE @ HOU

I don't know where they come up with Cleveland being competitive against the run. They're 26th in run defense, and 4 of their 7 games have been against teams that rank 21st or worse in rushing, including the 2 worst rushing teams in the game (Sea-31, Ten-32). Hell even Chris Johnson with the horrible year he's having put 101 on them. The only 2 top 10 rushing teams they've played have destroyed them on the ground (Oak-151, SF-174). That's competitive?

I'd argue their rush D is so bad that it's making their pass D rankings look a lot better than they might actually be. They have the least amount of pass attempts against them in the NFL. Probably because teams can run against them, 3rd most rushing attempts against.

If the Texans don't turn the ball over and keep the Brownies in the game like they did against J-ville last week, this should be a 28-3, 31-7 Texans win and Foster and Tate could both have great games again.
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