The Elephant in the room (Kubiak's November record)

[Hervoyel]

It either happens again or it doesn't. The history says we're going to pull a 1-4 in November but the history also says we should be sporting a defense ranked somewhere in the upper 20's right about now.

I'm trying to stay positive. This year we win in November for a change. With wins over the Titans and Jaguars we have a Cleveland team coming to town that we should be able to handle. This is another scenario we've all seen before. Cleveland has been on our plate more than once when we were supposed to be able to dominate them and instead we choked. I don't think we choke this season. I think we win.

Having said that I won't be impressed with a win over Cleveland. I expect a win over Cleveland. We're supposed to beat Cleveland at our house. The highest score the Texans can get against Cleveland (at least to me) is "Meets Expectations". To lose would be disastrous but I don't think we're going to lose. A three game win streak over these teams isn't impressive though. It's what should happen.

What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.

Then after the bye week we start what passes for the remaining "tough" part of our schedule.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.

I agree with everything above, and especially this.

Winning on the road vs a team that isn't a pushover is a good start at being a good team. THAT is what confidence comes from. This team will start to become honestly confident when they start beating good teams on the road. I think we are finally on our way (that doesn't mean my fingers aren't crossed).

[GP]

I wasn't encouraged that on two separate 3rd and 1 situations we ran the ball right up the middle and got stuffed both times.

Any other game, vs. any other opponent and I think those two failed 3rd and 1 failures might lead to the other team taking advantage and scoring some sort of points. The Jags offense is so weak and anemic that they couldn't do anything with it. Other teams' offense might fare better with the two ensuing possessions off those failed 3rd & 1 plays of ours.

The Browns game, to me, feels like the Raiders game all over again. A team we should handle, without any sort of dynamic QB (McCoy is sorta' like Campbell), in our house, it just sort of spooks me a bit.

People are also dismissing Blount too easily, IMO. He is a bruiser. He has shift in his hips and sees the field and knows how to run. He's EXACTLY the kind of RB who could run wild on our 34 defense. Freeman is a mobile guy, a big guy too. This game scares me also.

The Jax game does not scare me in the least bit, not even with it being in Jax. This year, we sweep our divisional foes...but will it offset what I think will be failures against non-divisional opponents that I think COULD happen if we fall asleep and teams "get up" for the Texans????

I dunno. We will be either (A) 3-0 in November, (B) 2-1, or (C) 1-2. We won't be 0-3, but I can see us falling asleep on teams in Nov and being 2-1 or at worse 1-2. The Browns game is huge. It starts with that one.

[Kthx]

I know its really egotistical and koolaid filled for me to say it but with Cushing playing the way he is this season there isn't one running back in the NFL that really scares me. Ray Rice and MJD are two of the most premier backs in the NFL (top 5 at least) and we for the most part shut them down. I know Ray Rice got a few runs in on us but we took him out of the equation for a majority of the game.

[Double Barrel]

It's a strange thing to see a franchise trend like the Texans have for the past several seasons. The November curse, the 5-7 thing four years in a row, the tale of two halves as a running theme...

But this season does feel different. Our defense is making plays. They are disrupting rhythms, creating opportunities, and showing a passion that we have never seen from a Texans defense.

If they had hired another FOG (friend of Gary) as DC, I think the trend would continue. However, I honestly think Wade brings something to the franchise that balances out whatever it is that Gary does/does not do during the November stretch. And unless this franchise has been cursed by some mystical force and all that jazz, I think the defense will ultimately save the day and win at least 2 games in November.

A 7-4 record going into December would be historic for this franchise. It would be the first time in a decade for the Texans (and 17 years for Houston fans) that football mattered in December.

They just have to run the November gauntlet...

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.

Then after the bye week we start what passes for the remaining "tough" part of our schedule.

On top of that, a win in Jacksonville after the bye, making it a 5 game win streak would really be impressive.

Say what you will about the Jags, but we saw two turnovers at home that almost put them in the game. Plus our offense struggled with their D, this is exactly the kind of game the Texans would lose.

Should win, the Jags are still a bad team, mainly because of their offense.

But if the Texans can pull that off & be 8-3 coming home to play Atlanta, I don't see how anyone (any Texans fan) can not get behind this team.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

If they had hired another FOG (friend of Gary) as DC, I think the trend would continue.

the FOG almost got Gary...probably would have with a less patient owner. Here's to no more FOG

[b0ng]

I'm halfway waiting for 5 - 7 to happen again somehow.

[Double Barrel]

Originally Posted by Vinny

the FOG almost got Gary...probably would have with a less patient owner. Here's to no more FOG

lol! That's awesome! MSR

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

I wasn't encouraged that on two separate 3rd and 1 situations we ran the ball right up the middle and got stuffed both times.

Any other game, vs. any other opponent and I think those two failed 3rd and 1 failures might lead to the other team taking advantage and scoring some sort of points. The Jags offense is so weak and anemic that they couldn't do anything with it. Other teams' offense might fare better with the two ensuing possessions off those failed 3rd & 1 plays of ours.

I don't know that we don't pick up that yard against a lesser defense.

Gotta give them some credit. Kick our HC & OC in the gnads for calling the plays, especially after what we did vs Tennessee the week before. But that's a good defense & they did their job.

Originally Posted by GP

People are also dismissing Blount too easily, IMO. He is a bruiser. He has shift in his hips and sees the field and knows how to run. He's EXACTLY the kind of RB who could run wild on our 34 defense. Freeman is a mobile guy, a big guy too. This game scares me also.

We've faced three of the best runners this year & did a pretty good job of it. DMC, Ray Rice, & MJD. Blount is just another, I'm not too worried about him. It's a team game & their team is going to have to beat our team, Blount won't do it alone, he's not that kind of back.

Originally Posted by GP

The Jax game does not scare me in the least bit, not even with it being in Jax. This year, we sweep our divisional foes...but will it offset what I think will be failures against non-divisional opponents that I think COULD happen if we fall asleep and teams "get up" for the Texans????

They play Indy then Cleveland... They will be 5-6 when we see them in Jax. They beat Baltimore at home, on turnovers & pressuring the QB. They really don't have a bad loss on their schedule. We're not going to win out the rest of the season. It would be a mistake (imo) to sleep on the Jags at home.

[Runner]

Originally Posted by GP

The Browns game, to me, feels like the Raiders game all over again. A team we should handle, without any sort of dynamic QB (McCoy is sorta' like Campbell), in our house, it just sort of spooks me a bit.

In my case, I thought the Raiders would beat the Texans the whole week leading up to that game. I do not share the same trepidation this week and will be somewhat surprised if the Browns win. (Just somewhat, because as most of us know, the Texans are fully capable of losing this type of game).

To me the difference in the two games is the offense. The Texans now know how to run an effective offense without Dre. They had to modify the calls/system rather than just stick Jacoby in Dre's slot and not change much else.

[Texans_Chick]

Re: Kubiak's November record. Occam's Razor analysis below.

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

It's remarkable they've won as much as they have since Kubiak has been with team given their defense has been poop.

The End.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

Re: Kubiak's November record. Occam's Razor analysis below.

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

It's remarkable they've won as much as they have since Kubiak has been with team given their defense has been poop.

The End.

I understand your point but remarkable, eh. Lots of teams have had great offenses and crap defenses over the years and most of them are .500 teams who beat bad teams but can't beat contending teams, especially on the road. The Denny Green Cardinals and the Kubiak Texans (past) are two peas in a pod, biscuits and gravy, ham and cheese.

[Double Barrel]

What is remarkable (to me, at least) is that Kubiak even has this job after his first five seasons.

The entire team and subsequent results represent the head coach, not just stats from one side of the ball.

If the defense has been lousy, then it's a direct reflection of the head coach's inability to hire a defensive coach that can improve it.

And coaches can make all the difference. Case in point: Wade with the Texans and Harbaugh with the 49ers (among others).

Originally Posted by Texans Chick

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

Yep. But, at least the Texans Marketing Team put sprinkles on it!

[Texans_Chick]

Originally Posted by Vinny

I understand your point but remarkable, eh. Lots of teams have had great offenses and crap defenses over the years and most of them are .500 teams who beat bad teams but can't beat contending teams, especially on the road. The Denny Green Cardinals and the Kubiak Texans (past) are two peas in a pod, biscuits and gravy, ham and cheese.

You can win with ok to bad defenses.

You can't win with historically horrific defenses. Even last year's bad New England defense ended up stringing together some above average performances.

Yes, it is on Kubiak/Smith that they didn't hire better defensive coordinators. Finding an experienced DC should have been the first order of business if you were going to have an offensive-minded head coach, working with a build through the draft, youngest in the league defensive starters.

Some of that may be who was available when they were looking, some not. I know a few coaches were not granted permission to talk to the Texans about the DC position at the time the Texans wanted to talk to them. There were no slam dunk candidates--all had pluses and minuses. Hard to say who exactly the alternatives were because they didn't want to undercut the coaches they did end up hiring.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

You can win with ok to bad defenses.

You can't win with historically horrific defenses. Even last year's bad New England defense ended up stringing together some above average performances.

Yes, it is on Kubiak/Smith that they didn't hire better defensive coordinators. Finding an experienced DC should have been the first order of business if you were going to have an offensive-minded head coach, working with a build through the draft, youngest in the league defensive starters.

Some of that may be who was available when they were looking, some not. I know a few coaches were not granted permission to talk to the Texans about the DC position at the time the Texans wanted to talk to them. There were no slam dunk candidates--all had pluses and minuses. Hard to say who exactly the alternatives were because they didn't want to undercut the coaches they did end up hiring.

yeah I can agree with that, historically horrific d tends to yield 6-10 seasons, not .500s like before when the defense was just plain ol' bad.

[Double Barrel]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

Some of that may be who was available when they were looking, some not.

This could very well be true.

But, the obvious is that FOGs were hired, and certainly makes me think Occam's razor, as well.

[TheMatrix31]

I don't even understand how this is an elephant in the room. You can't go anywhere without it being mentioned or more accurately, beaten to death.

[Runner]

It says something when the head coach loses his authority to pick his own staff. It says more that immediately someone else makes the best coaching staff decision of the Kubiak era.

Do the Texans now have a more subtle version of the Cowboys organization structure?

[badboy]

Elephants can be eaten just like anything else, one bite at a time. in the past a perfect storm of lack of talent, poor coaching, poor decisions, injuries etc blew our sailing ship onto the shoals. Did not destroy us but allowed us to go nowhere. This season the storm seems to push us to our goal.