2012 Hurricane Season

[brakos82]

Today marks 12th day in a row in 70s for Seattle, and 21st of last 23 days. Now that's a weather pattern to get stuck in!

[XI CMURDER IX]

Well, some hurricane season huh? I think I might have felt a slight breeze today from the coastal area, maybe a storm is brewin'.

[brakos82]

Tropical Storm Harvey continues to batter Honduras with heavy rainfall... the storm's center is off-shore, and development to minor hurricane status is possible before moving over Central America tomorrow... Harvey will not be a threat to the U.S.

Invest 97 is currently expected to develop over the next day or so... model tracks point I-97 through the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and Cuba... before exiting into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. How much interaction I-97 has with these islands will determine its condition in the gulf... I-97 is expected to move in GOMEX around Wednesday.

Two areas of interest in the Cape Verdes... looking very disorganized... will not develop anytime soon.

[brakos82]

Invest 97 has now become Tropical Storm Irene... tied for 2nd-earliest 9th named storm (tie 1936, 2005)... currently impacting the Antilles. Irene may become hurricane before interaction with Hispanola and Cuba... expected to be tropical storm moving over Florida keys Thursday, but forecast very uncertain... if Irene enters the Gulf or open Atlantic, she could restrengthen and become a hurricane.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by brakos82

Invest 97 has now become Tropical Storm Irene... tied for 2nd-earliest 9th named storm (tie 1936, 2005)... currently impacting the Antilles. Irene may become hurricane before interaction with Hispanola and Cuba... expected to be tropical storm moving over Florida keys Thursday, but forecast very uncertain... if Irene enters the Gulf or open Atlantic, she could restrengthen and become a hurricane.

Hopefully it will curve into the Atlantic and miss Florida.

[Showtime100]

.....or come to Austin and pull up a chair.

[brakos82]

What could be considered worst-case scenario for the southeast Atlantic coast has just happened.... the center of Hurricane Irene will miss Hispanola. Irene took a northerly trend to the north of the island overnight, and is now sitting about 75 miles north of the eastern tip of the island. Irene is currently forecasted to be a major hurricane as it skirts the Florida peninsula and heads towards South Carolina.

[Thorn]

I feel sorry for the folks where this one hits. Anything over a cat 2 is really bad.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by brakos82

What could be considered worst-case scenario for the southeast Atlantic coast has just happened.... the center of Hurricane Irene will miss Hispanola. Irene took a northerly trend to the north of the island overnight, and is now sitting about 75 miles north of the eastern tip of the island. Irene is currently forecasted to be a major hurricane as it skirts the Florida peninsula and heads towards South Carolina.

So its looking like it misses South Florida and will instead hit the Carolinas?

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by Doppelganger

So its looking like it misses South Florida and will instead hit the Carolinas?

Yep. The steering trough is moving into position earlier than originally expected... and with Irene's recent intensification (now a cat-2), we could see a path more towards North Carolina.

[Koolaid Time]

If its anywhere close to a 3 at landfall its going to be bad. But at least you will see Stephanie Abrams in a tight t-shirt on some beach somewhere.

[Showtime100]

Originally Posted by Koolaid Time

If its anywhere close to a 3 at landfall its going to be bad. But at least you will see Stephanie Abrams in a tight t-shirt on some beach somewhere.

Irene has big ones too.....

[brakos82]

[Thorn]

The projected path (which changes daily, of course) now has it hitting NY city as a cat 1. If that happens, we'll be hearing about this for years.

[Koolaid Time]

Originally Posted by Thorn

The projected path (which changes daily, of course) now has it hitting NY city as a cat 1. If that happens, we'll be hearing about this for years.

At least the Hurricane will chase Obama off Martha's Vineyard a couple of days early.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by brakos82

Yep. The steering trough is moving into position earlier than originally expected... and with Irene's recent intensification (now a cat-2), we could see a path more towards North Carolina.

It looks like Florida is not gonna get hit, but I imagine Florida will get some rain though, right?

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by Doppelganger

It looks like Florida is not gonna get hit, but I imagine Florida will get some rain though, right?

The East coast of Florida will likely get an outer rain band, and plenty of high surf as well... probably not much more than everyday thundershowers there.

Also, after dusting off the cobwebs I found Irene's ancestor from 1821.

[Scooter]

did this have anything to do with what hit houston last night? the rainfall was fairly weak here in katy, but it's been a while since i've seen such a lightning storm.

[rmartin65]

****, I am flying into JFK on Saturday (not a problem), and have a flight to Columbus at 7:30 PM (could be a problem). What are the odds my flight gets cancelled?

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by rmartin65

****, I am flying into JFK on Saturday (not a problem), and have a flight to Columbus at 7:30 PM (could be a problem). What are the odds my flight gets cancelled?

It's likely you'll have problems leaving JFK... once Irene goes extra-tropical (which will happen not long after NC landfall) the storm will be accelerating northwards to NYC and could hamper travel well before the center of Irene's arrival... best bet is to check with your airline, many are offering waivers for flight change fees.

Quick check online at the JFK airport is that almost all Saturday flights will be delayed or cancelled.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...544194282.html