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Old 07-29-2011   #61
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
He is saying that more times than not a players first season is a good picture of what you will get out of the player seasons after his rookie year. Dont get me wrong some guys suck and come back and become Hall Of Famers, But more times than not they arent in the NFL 3-5 years later. Even First Rounders.
I don't buy that. I think the vast majority of rookies struggle their 1st season. By no means as bad as KJ did, but he was done wrong by the coaching staff last season. There's a reason why everyone says that a players biggest leap is from year 1 to year 2.
There's also a reason you don't judge a draft for 3 years. Most players need a year or 2 for the game to slow down for them and get to where they can handle the situation.
I'm also in the camp that thinks KJ should NOT be our #2 to start the season, unless he earns it.
The Texans have been so historically bad that 1st rounders are expected to start and make an impact. If you watch the teams that are perennial winners, they play their 1st rounders less and don't particularly expect them to come in and be a superstar. They have the depth and talent to not have to.
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Old 07-29-2011   #62
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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He is saying that more times than not a players first season is a good picture of what you will get out of the player seasons after his rookie year. Dont get me wrong some guys suck and come back and become Hall Of Famers, But more times than not they arent in the NFL 3-5 years later. Even First Rounders.
True, I'd say usually what a rookie shows his rookie season he'll probably mirror to a degree the rest of his career. But what's important to note about Kareem was that he was part of a historically bad defense.

A rookie thrown into a defense whose pass rush didn't pass rush and whose safeties weren't covering makes it a recipe for disaster.

Putting rookie X in a defense surrounded by talent and having help over the top and having to cover his guy for that split second less will succeed more often than rookie Y described above.
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Old 07-29-2011   #63
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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True, I'd say usually what a rookie shows his rookie season he'll probably mirror to a degree the rest of his career. But what's important to note about Kareem was that he was part of a historically bad defense.
I don't agree about rookies showing what they're going to be in their rookie seasons. There are lots of counter examples.
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Old 07-29-2011   #64
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

I hope none of our rookies are givin the starting JOb even JJ watt who else we got ????

Maybe at least have JJ watt share time with Mark Anderson he played good for us last year IMO

and Jason allen should share time with Jackson this Dude had like 6 INT last year
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Old 07-29-2011   #65
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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I don't buy that. I think the vast majority of rookies struggle their 1st season. By no means as bad as KJ did, but he was done wrong by the coaching staff last season. There's a reason why everyone says that a players biggest leap is from year 1 to year 2.
There's also a reason you don't judge a draft for 3 years. Most players need a year or 2 for the game to slow down for them and get to where they can handle the situation.
I'm also in the camp that thinks KJ should NOT be our #2 to start the season, unless he earns it.
The Texans have been so historically bad that 1st rounders are expected to start and make an impact. If you watch the teams that are perennial winners, they play their 1st rounders less and don't particularly expect them to come in and be a superstar. They have the depth and talent to not have to.
Good post DocBar. I will be judging KJ on how he listens to DB coach and adapts. He has too many skills to fail unless it is between his ears. He should be devastated emotionally; but that will have to be proven to me. Brandon Harris will push Jackson or pull him. KJ will benefit either way. I have Texans going corner again in 2012 on my mock. Hopefully that will not be needed. But I think we clear out some more CBs between now and April.
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Old 07-29-2011   #66
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

I don't know that the CB spot should be just given to KJ. I'd like to see him, Allen, and whoever else fight for the spot. If nothing else, it'll make him a better CB to learn the ropes and be challenged.

KJ was put into a bad situation and wasn't given the support he needed. Right now, I'd rather see him in nickel situations until he really learns the defense. The lockout made all of this worse since he didn't have as much time to get his learn on with the new defensive coaching staff.
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Old 07-29-2011   #67
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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I don't know that the CB spot should be just given to KJ.
I think it's going to be a war for that CB2 spot. I don't think KJ is going to be given anything.
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Old 07-29-2011   #68
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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I don't agree about rookies showing what they're going to be in their rookie seasons. There are lots of counter examples.
I agree, the league is littered with examples of players who had the lights suddenly turn on.

But I honestly think there's way more players who were drafted high, underperformed, and slowly faded away to a shell of their expectations.

It's much easier to remember the guys who became great players than it is to remember players who never played up to expectations.
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Old 07-29-2011   #69
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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You mean like HWNNBM, TJ, Jason Babin and AO? Hell that's 40% of our 1st rounders that are busts.
Babin has turned out to be a pretty decent player, just not with us.
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Old 07-29-2011   #70
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Jackson IS getting the benefit of the doubt-- he started as a rookie and kept his job even after he proved ineffective, and he'll get the chance to start this year as well. Nobody thought Mario was a "bust" after his first year, certainly not on the level of Jackson. Okoye got some sacks early in his first year, but I don't think anybody thought he was "pretty good," promising maybe, but it wasn't like his first year performance was some crazy aberration.

Jackson was historically bad his first year. Not mediocre, not disappointing, not overmatched, but historically bad. Find ten rookie corners (hell, ten rookies at any non-skill position) who had comparably awful seasons, and I'd highly doubt any of them turned into anything decent. The excuses are valid, but but how far can they really go?
Man there weren't many people after year 1 that said "The Texans did right by picking Mario." I met few people who thought that. Most thought Bush or Young should have been taken EVEN Texan fans. When you are the #1 pick and people think anyone else should have been drafted in that spot that is a bust.

Okoye had a great rookie year for a DT, a position Rookies sometimes struggle in.

Jackson was horribly bad but are you putting the blame solely on him? I think it was the entire secondary that was horrible, including the coaching which only made the problem worse. You aren't going to find rookie corners that had as bad a year as KJ. True. But you also aren't going to find as many that were thrown into the fire.

Again, Kareem wasn't the only defender having a bad season.

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You mean like HWNNBM, TJ, Jason Babin and AO? Hell that's 40% of our 1st rounders that are busts.
Actually I meant in Rick Smith's era only. Not Casserly, I've since forgotten those years. I should have clarified but I thought it was a given since we are talking about the current regime and not one years ago.

In Rick Smith's era he has only really bust on one pick and that is Okoye. Everyone else has become starters on this team.

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Yes BUT you dont go into the season depending on that player. Not even as a #2 CB. You work him at Nickle so he can gain experience but isnt always depended on to hold his man.
I completely agree. I didn't say depend on Kareem or anything of the sort. He should earn his job. My main thing was the thought that we should give up on KJ and just give him away.
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Old 07-29-2011   #71
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Babin has turned out to be a pretty decent player, just not with us.
meh...he's had one good year. Babin
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Old 07-29-2011   #72
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

Jason Allen must have the inside track to that 2nd spot. However, he will have to play well to keep it.

The make or break things for this D will be the ability to get pressure on the QB, and also quinn's ability to transition to FS.
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Old 07-29-2011   #73
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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It was his rookie year. Nnamdi wasn't very good his rookie year either, along with many CBs. Still it was his rookie year, there is a NFL rule that you don't judge players until they have played 3 years in the NFL. If you did base him on one year, might as well get rid of Mario too.

Lets also remember that if Kareem made a mistake, it was magnified because there was literally NO safety help at all.
Revis his rookie year had pretty much the same stats and looked lost at times...

I wanna see Jackson on a defense with a competent DC, in which Wade is. Then I'll make my judgements...
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Old 07-29-2011   #74
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Babin has turned out to be a pretty decent player, just not with us.
I am waiting for Babin to get hit with a 4 game ban for "over training" No other explanation for his immediate uprising this late in his career....
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Old 07-29-2011   #75
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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I am waiting for Babin to get hit with a 4 game ban for "over training" No other explanation for his immediate uprising this late in his career....
I don't know about that. Maybe he finally found the right scheme and right personnel around him. I mean look at where he played.
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Old 07-29-2011   #76
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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I don't buy that. I think the vast majority of rookies struggle their 1st season. By no means as bad as KJ did, but he was done wrong by the coaching staff last season. There's a reason why everyone says that a players biggest leap is from year 1 to year 2.
There's also a reason you don't judge a draft for 3 years. Most players need a year or 2 for the game to slow down for them and get to where they can handle the situation.
I'm also in the camp that thinks KJ should NOT be our #2 to start the season, unless he earns it.
The Texans have been so historically bad that 1st rounders are expected to start and make an impact. If you watch the teams that are perennial winners, they play their 1st rounders less and don't particularly expect them to come in and be a superstar. They have the depth and talent to not have to.
Of course most rookies struggle their first seasons, as people tend to get better at things with experience, especially something like the NFL with its rigorous strength, speed, and conditioning standards. But that truth is not, in and of itself, a reason to think that a bad player will suddenly become a good one. If you look back at bad 1st and 2nd round rookie corners (and defenders overall), very few of them turn out to be productive pros, much less pro-bowlers. That's a fact, not my opinion. As for Jackson himself, did you really see ANYTHING from him last year that makes you think he's going to turn it around? I'm not talking about who his coaches were or who was playing safety, I'm talking about his play specifically. He didn't show great speed, didn't show great hips, didn't show great ball instincts, didn't show an aggressive attitude, etc. On top of that, he wasn't injured as far as I know, and he didn't appear to improve as the year went along.

The only counter-argument I hear (aside from the wishful thinking, logical fallacies I've already debunked) is his first round pedigree and that everybody else on his side of the ball (including the coaches) was terrible also. This first round pedigree argument conveniently ignores that the front office has been average at best in evaluating defensive talent, and "the whole defense was terrible" argument ignores Jackson's major role in that defense being so bad. I would LOVE to be proven wrong, and will happily come on here and admit it when I am.
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Old 07-29-2011   #77
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Originally Posted by BullNation4Life View Post
Revis his rookie year had pretty much the same stats and looked lost at times...

I wanna see Jackson on a defense with a competent DC, in which Wade is. Then I'll make my judgements...

I don't remember seeing Revis his rookie year, or what stats you're referring to, but I highly doubt he was anywhere near as bad as Jackson was last year.
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Old 07-29-2011   #78
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Of course most rookies struggle their first seasons, as people tend to get better at things with experience, especially something like the NFL with its rigorous strength, speed, and conditioning standards. But that truth is not, in and of itself, a reason to think that a bad player will suddenly become a good one. If you look back at bad 1st and 2nd round rookie corners (and defenders overall), very few of them turn out to be productive pros, much less pro-bowlers. That's a fact, not my opinion. As for Jackson himself, did you really see ANYTHING from him last year that makes you think he's going to turn it around? I'm not talking about who his coaches were or who was playing safety, I'm talking about his play specifically. He didn't show great speed, didn't show great hips, didn't show great ball instincts, didn't show an aggressive attitude, etc. On top of that, he wasn't injured as far as I know, and he didn't appear to improve as the year went along.

The only counter-argument I hear (aside from the wishful thinking, logical fallacies I've already debunked) is his first round pedigree and that everybody else on his side of the ball (including the coaches) was terrible also. This first round pedigree argument conveniently ignores that the front office has been average at best in evaluating defensive talent, and "the whole defense was terrible" argument ignores Jackson's major role in that defense being so bad. So when I don't believe that he's going to turn it around, it's not a case of my "giving up on him." I would LOVE to be proven wrong, and will happily come on here and admit it when I am.
Very nice post. I'm trying to come up with something and struggling. That kind of proves your point. Having said that, I'm for seeing what he does this season. If he starts, I hope it's based on merit and not his draft position. The Texans have been plagued by starting players based on that.
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Old 07-29-2011   #79
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

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Jackson IS getting the benefit of the doubt-- he started as a rookie and kept his job even after he proved ineffective, and he'll get the chance to start this year as well. Nobody thought Mario was a "bust" after his first year, certainly not on the level of Jackson. Okoye got some sacks early in his first year, but I don't think anybody thought he was "pretty good," promising maybe, but it wasn't like his first year performance was some crazy aberration.

Jackson was historically bad his first year. Not mediocre, not disappointing, not overmatched, but historically bad. Find ten rookie corners (hell, ten rookies at any non-skill position) who had comparably awful seasons, and I'd highly doubt any of them turned into anything decent. The excuses are valid, but but how far can they really go?
You should go check out the posts that 76Texan made breaking down plays. A lot of the plays that people blame on Jackson and his poor performance weren't his fault (including a play where he was expecting inside help from a safety who wasn't even on the field.) A rookie CB needs good safety support and he did not get it.

Did he have a great rookie season? No, he didn't. But he didn't play as epically bad as a lot of people (including you) think he did. He did a lot of things good.

Will he be our CB2? I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if we pick up another CB in FA and let some of the failed experiments from the previous DB coaches go. Whatever happens, I don't think the position is going to be given to him.
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Old 07-29-2011   #80
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Default Re: Projected starters on defense...

EU, you must realize that boorlando is telling you that Jason Allen shouldn't even be on the roster.

He's saying that we have a major hole at #2, which is Jackson.
Therfore, Jason Allen must be worse than terrible.

Both of you agreed that a player who showed up bad early, most likely ends up bad.
Allen was a higher draft pick, and he can't hardly get on the playing field the first year.
But when he did, boy, did he tear it up.
The Dolphins went 1-15 and gave up 437 points; yeah I know what you two mean, historically bad!

And then when they put him on the bench the next year, they rebounded to 11-5.

Boy, the Texans certainly have a huge hole at #3, don't they?
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