2012 Hurricane Season

[brakos82]

Once again hurricane season is nearly upon us (starts June 1), and the tropical Atlantic waters are looking favorable for another active season. After last year's 19 named systems, we currently expect a less active overall season across the basin. However, the proverbial "lid to the popcorn popper", the Bermuda High that normally sits over the mid-latitude Atlantic during the summer and early fall, is expected to be in place this season, so storms are expected to be pointed farther south, towards the Caribbean, GOMEX, and southeast coastlines. Neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist in the Pacific basin through this season, leading to a more active Atlantic season than average.

Pre-season storm predictions are consistent across the board, with expectations of an active season. 15-17 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, with 5 possibly becoming major.

Predictions from Colorado State University:
- 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
- 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
- 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
- 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


May 2 SST anomalies showing warmer than average waters over the tropical Atlantic.



Current wide view of the Atlantic Basin.

[Dutchrudder]

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin'

Looks like it time to start stocking up on the extra water and canned goods and stuff. The only thing worse than trying to ride out a hurricane is being in a grocery store right before it hits.

[GlassHalfFull]

Originally Posted by brakos82

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia - close
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean -my son's name
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

[TexanSam]

Gert? What kind of name is that?

[Showtime100]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

Gert? What kind of name is that?

LOL! It's a German name, maybe French too, can't remember. I think it was common in the 19th century. Ask Thorn or JB, they were there.

I can already see the signs..."Gert TFO!!!

[Señor Stan]

Originally Posted by GlassHalfFull

Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

Franklin...my middle name. Yeah, yeah, I know...it's a family name. I got lucky. There's a Ralph, Delbert and a Grover that could have been in play there.

[brakos82]

The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

[CretorFrigg]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

Jose, really dude? lol

[Showtime100]

Originally Posted by brakos82

The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

Maybe they'll call it TS El Caballo. All it will do is twirl around and not hit a damned thing.

[BeerTastesLikeVictory]

Originally Posted by Thorn

"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin'

I wouldn't worry about hurricane Vince. The meteorologists might hype it up to be the next Katrina, but in the end it will just fizzle out before it hits land.

[badboy]

What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by badboy

What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

Mother Nature knows no odds. She does as she pleases.

[brakos82]

A little late-night research that I found interesting.... busier tornado seasons in the U.S. lead to slower production of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The 10 busiest tornado seasons on record since 1950 (2011 will certainly be the top season when all is said and done) produced 14% fewer hurricanes than average. A good sign possibly.

Other than 2005, there's no statistical difference between a calm tornado season and the hurricane output of the Atlantic basin. (2005 had the 3rd-least number of F-3 or higher tornadoes.)

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by brakos82

A little late-night research that I found interesting.... busier tornado seasons in the U.S. lead to slower production of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The 10 busiest tornado seasons on record since 1950 (2011 will certainly be the top season when all is said and done) produced 14% fewer hurricanes than average. A good sign possibly.

Other than 2005, there's no statistical difference between a calm tornado season and the hurricane output of the Atlantic basin. (2005 had the 3rd-least number of F-3 or higher tornadoes.)

Sounds good to me. If are hurricanes, hopefully they lose steam long before they hit any inhabited areas.

[brakos82]

The hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1, and the signs of an early potential system continue to build together. A large area of moisture in the central Caribbean, currently experiencing high wind shear, will have a more favorable environment around Thursday, as wind shear levels are expected to drop over the next few days, and a tropical wave currently located around 10N-60W moves westward and into the region. A low pressure system will develop over the central Caribbean, but how organised or strong this system becomes is still unknown. Either way, Haiti, Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains later this week.

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by brakos82

The hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1, and the signs of an early potential system continue to build together. A large area of moisture in the central Caribbean, currently experiencing high wind shear, will have a more favorable environment around Thursday, as wind shear levels are expected to drop over the next few days, and a tropical wave currently located around 10N-60W moves westward and into the region. A low pressure system will develop over the central Caribbean, but how organised or strong this system becomes is still unknown. Either way, Haiti, Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains later this week.

How is Miami looking?

If any of those stranded South Beach hotties needs a place to stay, in the name of generosity, empathy, and understanding, Elvis and I will gladly open our doors to them.

[Thorn]

Damn, I'm usually all stocked up by now. I'm going to have to start hitting the grocery store on the way home from work and picking up water and canned goods to get completely caught up.

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by awtysst

How is Miami looking?

If any of those stranded South Beach hotties needs a place to stay, in the name of generosity, empathy, and understanding, Elvis and I will gladly open our doors to them.

Nothing exciting, whatever develops is expected to get sheared to the east by the time it would get anywhere near there.

Better luck next time?

[brakos82]

Taking a cue from the calendar, mother nature is starting hurricane season right on time.

A "surprise" disturbance is currently spinning over central Florida... This system is getting organized, however, this system has moved over Daytona Beach, killing its development temporarily. It will be moving to the west-southwest over time, entering slightly favorable waters in the eastern Gulf. Development won't occur over the Florida peninsula, but a tropical depression could form west of Florida within the next few days.

The Central Caribbean moisture continues to sit over the warm waters, with little signs of development. This system will merge with a tropical wave moving westward across the Lesser Antilles around Friday or Saturday, which could add some fuel to produce a tropical depression around that time.