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Old 05-02-2011   #41
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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Originally Posted by HJam72 View Post
Yeah, if I'm a HC, I go for it most of the time on 4th and inches. If we can't win that battle most of the time, I start drafting O-linemen like we just focused on the D in the draft this year. 4th and inches for O-linemen should be WIN-or-find-another-job time.

Could be that our D was even worse than most at it though... I'm not sayin' it wasn't.
Except there is always someone like Rex Ryan or Dom Capers thinking exactly the opposite.

They all on scholarship in the NFL.
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Old 05-02-2011   #42
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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Yeah, if I'm a HC, I go for it most of the time on 4th and inches. If we can't win that battle most of the time, I start drafting O-linemen like we just focused on the D in the draft this year. 4th and inches for O-linemen should be WIN-or-find-another-job time.

Could be that our D was even worse than most at it though... I'm not sayin' it wasn't.
You might be interested in this "4th and inches" Nov. 2010 ESPN article I found.

Fourth-down analysis met with skepticism
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Old 05-02-2011   #43
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

Here are 2010 conversion rates for 3rd and 4th downs for Offenses, and defend rates for Defenses (by team)

Unfortunately, it doesn't divide stats by yards required or pass vs run.


Offense

Defense
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Old 05-02-2011   #44
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Here are 2010 conversion rates for 3rd and 4th downs for Offenses, and defend rates for Defenses (by team)

Unfortunately, it doesn't divide stats by yards required or pass vs run.


Offense

Defense


So, we were the worst.
San Francisco, Oakland, & Cincinnati were the best.

What exactly is this supposed to tell us?
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Old 05-03-2011   #45
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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A reason more/most concerning of run D in cases of "inches" is actuall 4th and inches (and that was where I was going with this), which tend to come up in the most critical of circumstances, not uncommonly determining winning or losing. No actual stats, but I seem to remember not generally faring very well in those run situations (including QB sneaks).
Well, just for straight up 4th down conversions, our team gave up 11/13. 85%. Wow. If you're wondering, that's the worst in the league. The next worse was the Browns who gave up 11/15 for 73%.

And our team gave up 4 yards per rush.

Teams didn't take advantage of how bad our rush defense was because our pass defense was even worse and you might as well take advantage of that.

Hopefully, having Watt and Mario on the ends and Demeco and Cush in the middle improves our rush defense, but we need whoever's playing NT to solidify the middle of that line. If Mitchell and Cody can do that, great. But I would have liked some sort of space eater in the draft. Hopefully we get an NT in FA that can do that. Hopefully we get two or three.
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Old 05-03-2011   #46
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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So, we were the worst.
San Francisco, Oakland, & Cincinnati were the best.

What exactly is this supposed to tell us?
That we were probably not stout against the run and that we need some sort of presence on the line that's going to fix that.
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Old 05-03-2011   #47
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He basically said that he thought the D was best at the run defense..............that he did recollect a problem with the run in short yardage. But he would not really have stats he could think of that would support that. He was concerned about the pass defense in 3rd and short.

It did not seem to answer the 3rd and inches against the run (vs "short yardage") where my main concern lies.

Rey, I agree, not every man has to be a 340 pound bruiser in the middle, but for every pound you knock off, you better have added an increment of strength and nasty to each. I saw no one last year that fit the bill.
I agree with all you have said here. I not against adding big nasties in the slightest.
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Old 05-03-2011   #48
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
That we were probably not stout against the run and that we need some sort of presence on the line that's going to fix that.
Or maybe it's not that big of a deal...... I mean Oakland, San Francisco, Cincinnati..... That's the top three & it didn't get them anywhere.

I understand it says something about the toughness of our team. I am not saying we should ignore it all together. Just that there are more important things we need to work on, like 3rd & long.
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Old 05-03-2011   #49
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

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Or maybe it's not that big of a deal...... I mean Oakland, San Francisco, Cincinnati..... That's the top three & it didn't get them anywhere.

I understand it says something about the toughness of our team. I am not saying we should ignore it all together. Just that there are more important things we need to work on, like 3rd & long.
And I think they've made moves to improve the 3rd and long issues.

I think that Smith/Watt/Mario as our front line during passing situations with Reed and Barwin off the edges gives us a pretty fierce pass rush (it will be interesting to see which LB comes off the field in the Nickle). And hopefully our DBs will improve with the change of scheme, coaching staff, and shifting of players. So that addresses 3rd and long.

But we've still got to improve against the rush. I'm not sold on Mitchell and Cody in the middle. Maybe they'll fit the new scheme better but if we fix our passing D but still allow 4 yards per carry on the ground, we're still going to get pounded.
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Old 05-03-2011   #50
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Default Re: Why not Smith as NT?

FYI...

Greenbay was like 4th or 5th on that list. When they went nickel, they took one of the 3 linemen off the field.

I thought it was interesting, but it worked.
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