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Old 02-03-2011   #1
Wolf6151
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Default Best Case/Worst Case Mock Draft.

With the current CBA expiring and no signs of a new one being signed any time soon their most likely won't be a FA period prior to the draft like normally happens. With this in mind we won't be able to fill any team holes prior to the draft and will have to take a worst case scenario approach to the draft since there's no guarantee that we'll be able to get any FA's at all once a new CBA is signed, whenever that is. Also since FA will most likely take place after the draft it will get much more expensive for teams to sign FA's since FA players will basically be able to hold teams hostage for the highest bid since FA players know that teams won't have the draft to fall back on. Keeping this in mind I see the Texans as having 3 major holes that could all be 1st round priorities NT, OLB, and CB. I know change was needed but it seems the Texans picked a bad time to be switching defensive schemes.

Here's a best case scenario draft with FA taking place before the draft like normal, thus we pick up a quality FA CB like Jonathan Joseph who's young and has skill. I'll try to keep it real with only 1 quality FA signing instead of some that I see have us signing 4-5 high quality FA's which is totally unrealistic.
1. Robert Quinn-OLB, adds size, speed, and athleticism to our LB corp. that will need it with the switch to the 3-4.
2. Rahim Moore-FS, center fielder/ball hawk that's also good with coverage on TE's and slot WR's. Just to good of a talent to pass up since our secondary was absolutely horrible last year.
3. Jerrell Powe-NT, has size and strength to clog the middle and play the run.
4. Terrance Toliver-WR, 6'05" with decent speed and hands, Jacoby Jones replacement and a good red zone threat.
5. Mike Mohamed-ILB, good size and decent speed with good college production. Sharpton is to small to be an NFL LB in the 3-4 and we'll need the extra LB depth.
6. Tejay Johnson-SS, Domonique Barber sucks enough said.
7. Derek Epperson-P, Matt Turk needs to start drawing social security.

Worst case scenario, no FA at all since we're not guaranteed to get anyone.
1. Brandon Harris-CB, this guy will become a shut down corner in the NFL. Plays the run very well and plays very good man coverage.
2. Rahim Moore-FS, see earlier explanation.
3. Jerrell Powe-NT, see earlier explanation.
4. Steven Friday-OLB, good size and decent speed with potential to be a good player.
5. Mike Mohamed-ILB, see earlier explanation.
6. Tejay Johnson-SS, see earlier explanation.
7. Derek Epperson-P, see earlier explanation.

Let's see your best case (with FA) and worst case (without FA) mock drafts. This was inspired by Badboy's mock a few days ago where he made a very good point that makes you think about worst case scenario.
http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79691

It was a slow night at work...
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Old 02-03-2011   #2
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Default Re: Best Case/Worst Case Mock Draft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
With the current CBA expiring and no signs of a new one being signed any time soon their most likely won't be a FA period prior to the draft like normally happens. With this in mind we won't be able to fill any team holes prior to the draft and will have to take a worst case scenario approach to the draft since there's no guarantee that we'll be able to get any FA's at all once a new CBA is signed, whenever that is. Also since FA will most likely take place after the draft it will get much more expensive for teams to sign FA's since FA players will basically be able to hold teams hostage for the highest bid since FA players know that teams won't have the draft to fall back on. Keeping this in mind I see the Texans as having 3 major holes that could all be 1st round priorities NT, OLB, and CB. I know change was needed but it seems the Texans picked a bad time to be switching defensive schemes.

Here's a best case scenario draft with FA taking place before the draft like normal, thus we pick up a quality FA CB like Jonathan Joseph who's young and has skill. I'll try to keep it real with only 1 quality FA signing instead of some that I see have us signing 4-5 high quality FA's which is totally unrealistic.
1. Robert Quinn-OLB, adds size, speed, and athleticism to our LB corp. that will need it with the switch to the 3-4.
2. Rahim Moore-FS, center fielder/ball hawk that's also good with coverage on TE's and slot WR's. Just to good of a talent to pass up since our secondary was absolutely horrible last year.
3. Jerrell Powe-NT, has size and strength to clog the middle and play the run.
4. Terrance Toliver-WR, 6'05" with decent speed and hands, Jacoby Jones replacement and a good red zone threat.
5. Mike Mohamed-ILB, good size and decent speed with good college production. Sharpton is to small to be an NFL LB in the 3-4 and we'll need the extra LB depth.
6. Tejay Johnson-SS, Domonique Barber sucks enough said.
7. Derek Epperson-P, Matt Turk needs to start drawing social security.

Worst case scenario, no FA at all since we're not guaranteed to get anyone.
1. Brandon Harris-CB, this guy will become a shut down corner in the NFL. Plays the run very well and plays very good man coverage.
2. Rahim Moore-FS, see earlier explanation.
3. Jerrell Powe-NT, see earlier explanation.
4. Steven Friday-OLB, good size and decent speed with potential to be a good player.
5. Mike Mohamed-ILB, see earlier explanation.
6. Tejay Johnson-SS, see earlier explanation.
7. Derek Epperson-P, see earlier explanation.

Let's see your best case (with FA) and worst case (without FA) mock drafts. This was inspired by Badboy's mock a few days ago where he made a very good point that makes you think about worst case scenario.
http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79691

It was a slow night at work...
not a big difference between worst case & best case. overall seems a bit pessimistic. I've been trying to figure out where this change in defensive schemes sits with players currently on Texans roster. In particular Mario Williams, Antonio Smith & Amobi Okoye. I don't expect one of them to be back. Quinn is a similar kind of projected DE as Mario was when he came out so I see the value @ #11. But do you think Mario might have a problem with a rookie coming in to play the coveted pass rushing OLB position, who is that similar, while he has to put his hand on the ground & battle those nasty tackles/guards toe to toe? Just food for thought, I think it needs to be a smaller, quicker true hybird LB who frankly has a step or two on him in order to generate more QB sacks. the three top seem to be Von Miller, Aldon Smith & Justin Houston with Ryan Kerrigan pushing hard from the outside in case the Texans accept a trade down offer.
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Old 02-03-2011   #3
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Default Re: Best Case/Worst Case Mock Draft.

The best case scenario implies that FA will be before the draft and we'll fill a very important team hole at CB with quality talent. The worst case scenario implies that there won't be a FA period until after the draft, possibly long after the draft, and we may not get anyone at all since FA players have to want to come here. We were a bad team last year and a quality FA will want to go to a championship caliber team unless we grossly overpay. Nothing about Bob McNair tells me that he's willing to grossly overpay quality FA's to play here, that's just not "Bottom line Bobs" style.

I think all 3 guys (Williams, Smith, and Okoye) will be back next year. A case can be made for trading each player but I don't credit the Texans with enough intelligence or forethought to make a move like that. Kubiak likes to give players a long time to develop and I think he'll be just as patient with the transition to the 3-4 system. Mario will play where he's told because he's in the last year of a contract and is looking for that huge FA contract next year, he'll be playing for the Benjamin's this year. I wouldn't be opposed to Justin Houston in the 1st round if we can trade down. I don't want Smith, Miller, or Kerrigan.

As for being pessimistic I think even the worst case scenario draft takes a hopeful approach to our injured players (Ryan and Barwin) ability to come back and play at starter level.
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Old 02-03-2011   #4
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Default Re: Best Case/Worst Case Mock Draft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
The best case scenario implies that FA will be before the draft and we'll fill a very important team hole at CB with quality talent. The worst case scenario implies that there won't be a FA period until after the draft, possibly long after the draft, and we may not get anyone at all since FA players have to want to come here. We were a bad team last year and a quality FA will want to go to a championship caliber team unless we grossly overpay. Nothing about Bob McNair tells me that he's willing to grossly overpay quality FA's to play here, that's just not "Bottom line Bobs" style.

I think all 3 guys (Williams, Smith, and Okoye) will be back next year. A case can be made for trading each player but I don't credit the Texans with enough intelligence or forethought to make a move like that. Kubiak likes to give players a long time to develop and I think he'll be just as patient with the transition to the 3-4 system. Mario will play where he's told because he's in the last year of a contract and is looking for that huge FA contract next year, he'll be playing for the Benjamin's this year. I wouldn't be opposed to Justin Houston in the 1st round if we can trade down. I don't want Smith, Miller, or Kerrigan.

As for being pessimistic I think even the worst case scenario draft takes a hopeful approach to our injured players (Ryan and Barwin) ability to come back and play at starter level.
Great post

Wow, you like Houston that much?

I've got Miller and Smith rated above Houston. How do you rate the top 5, 3-4 OLB's in this draft?
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