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Old 01-04-2011   #1
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Default Compensatory Pick

I've seen some people posting about the compensatory pick we should expect for Dunta Robinson. While waiting for AdamJT13's annual anaysis (followed by the actual announcement), I'm trying to determine what the chances are that we'll actually get that pick.

The key thing is that we have to have lost more "qualifying" free agents than we signed. If we lost the same number, we can end up with only a 7th round pick. If we lost fewer, then we get no compensatory pick... Picks for players lost get "canceled" by picks for players signed.

Obviously we lost Dunta, and he should qualify for a high pick (I'd guess 3rd round, given his large contract).

I think Chester Pitts is the only other player we lost, and I am having difficulty figuring out whether or not he will qualify. He was signed by Seattle to a contract that should be large enough to qualify, didn't play for them, was released in October, then re-signed by them a few days later, and played some for them in the later part of the season. I am not sure how he will count - it seems there's a chance he might not be a "qualifying" player due to the release/resign, and I think he was signed fairly late the first time, which I believe can also affect whether the player qualifies.

Now, I'm trying to determine which players we brought in as free agents might "qualify." Neil Rackers is a clear qualifier - UFA signee with a decent contract (avg. over $2 million per year). I don't think that Matt Leinart or Derrick Ward qualify, since they were released from their earlier teams, rather than leaving as UFAs. Same goes for people like Jason Allen, Quintin Demps, Jarvis Green, Stanford Keglar (forgot we had some of them!). Am I forgetting any other (significant) FA signees?

If Rackers is our only qualifying signee, then the question comes down to whether or not Chester Pitts qualifies as a compensatory-worthy signing. If he does, then he will "cancel" the Rackers signing, and we should get a 3rd round pick for Dunta. If Pitts does not count, though, then we have no net loss in number of free agents, and so the best we can hope for is a compensatory pick at the end of the 7th round! That's a huge difference, and so what we really need to know is whether or not Pitts will count toward the compensatory selection.
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Old 01-04-2011   #2
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Wade Smith?
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Old 01-04-2011   #3
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Im not really sure, but ain`t it more about incoming/outgoing salary?
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Old 01-04-2011   #4
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
Wade Smith?
Oh man, you're right. Wade Smith should also qualify. So, we have no net loss of free agents (and maybe even a net gain, depending on whether Pitts counts).

That means we should expect at most a 7th round compensatory pick.
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Old 01-04-2011   #5
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

I think compensatory picks go by rating Type A (Dunta) B,C

It may have to do with $$$ spent on FA

Was Rackers/ considered type A FA?

When does AdamJT 13's analysis come out and could you provid a link to his site where I can get this info?

Thanks
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Old 01-04-2011   #6
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

I'm not sure if this has an effect, but Pitts may not count because we made no attempt to resign him (Never made an offer.). In other words, it's like we cut him. So if Pitts doesn't count, we basically got 2 starters (Rackers and Smith) for one (Robinson). I think we'll be lucky to get a 7th out of the deal.
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Old 01-04-2011   #7
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
I think compensatory picks go by rating Type A (Dunta) B,C

It may have to do with $$$ spent on FA

Was Rackers/ considered type A FA?

When does AdamJT 13's analysis come out and could you provid a link to his site where I can get this info?

Thanks
HERE is a link to his website, specifically to a page where he gives information about the details of how compensatory picks are awarded. Last year his predictions came out in early March, so I'd guess it will be similar this year.

Compensatory picks do go by rating (they're given a round rating from 3 to 7), and the rating is based on the value of their contract. But, the fundamental question is how many qualifying free agents leave vs. how many are signed. In our case, we lost 1 or 2, and we signed 2. If Pitts doesn't count, it doesn't matter whether Dunta's contract was for $100million and the two we signed barely qualified - we still wouldn't get a compensatory, since we did not have a net loss in number of FAs. Evidently, if you "break even" (which we did, in the best case), then if a person you lost was paid much more than the corresponding person signed (this might be the case - Dunta got a lot more than Wade Smith), then you might get a 7th round pick. This is our best case.

Rackers signed a contract worth about $2 million per year, which should be plenty high to qualify, and also played in all the games (maybe if he hadn't ever played, he would not have counted). So, he almost certainly counts as a qualifying free agent, probably at the 7th round level. Wade Smith's contract was worth about $3 million per year, so he should also qualify, probably at the 6th round level.

Dunta is likely a 3rd round level, and Pitts is probably a 7th round level, if he counts at all. So, basically, Pitts would cancel out Rackers, and Wade Smith would cancel out Dunta (if we had lost another player at a worse round, Smith would have cancelled him out, instead). Because there's a big difference between Dunta's and Smith's ratings, though, we might get a 7th.
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Old 01-04-2011   #8
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
I'm not sure if this has an effect, but Pitts may not count because we made no attempt to resign him (Never made an offer.). In other words, it's like we cut him. So if Pitts doesn't count, we basically got 2 starters (Rackers and Smith) for one (Robinson). I think we'll be lucky to get a 7th out of the deal.
Yeah, I think this might be the case. I think if the FA signs with the other team before June 1 or whatever, then it doesn't matter. But, if they sign later (like Pitts did, I think), then we were supposed to have made a minimum offer or something. I'm less clear on that part, though. Plus, there's the whole "signed to a contract and never played on that contract before being released, then getting a new contract" issue for Pitts. If Pitts doesn't count, then I think we end up with nothing. I'm not sure a pick at the very end of the 7th matters that much, anyway, so I'm not going to be too upset if we find out they come up with nothing.
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Old 01-04-2011   #9
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
I'm not sure if this has an effect, but Pitts may not count because we made no attempt to resign him (Never made an offer.). In other words, it's like we cut him. So if Pitts doesn't count, we basically got 2 starters (Rackers and Smith) for one (Robinson). I think we'll be lucky to get a 7th out of the deal.
In the NFL the attempt to sign a player is not important, like orbitration in baseball.
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Old 01-04-2011   #10
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

I think the qualified UFAs are those who were signed during the free agency period:
- Unrestricted free agents who have received the June 1 tender from their prior Club, from March 5 to July 22 (or the first scheduled day of the first NFL training camp, whichever is later - I think the Cowboys held the first TC on Jul 24).


Compensatory picks are based on NET loss of free agents.

The formula places values on the players as well as counting them. It's possible to get an extra pick if you sign the same number of guys as you lose - if the value of the guys you lose is much greater than the value of the ones you sign. But the picks awarded this way will only be late seventh rounders.

.......
We signed Smith for 4yrs @ $12M and Rackers for 2 yrs @ $4M
(both will probably be valued as 7th rounder)

Falcons signed Dunta for 6 yrs @ $57M (value = 3rd rounder)
Redskins signed Grossman for 1 yr, contract value unknown (If he signed for under $1M, he probably won't count).

Seahawks sign Pitts for 1 yr @ $2M; however, the reported date that I found is July 29th (???) so I don't know if Pitts qualified or not. (If he qualifies, his value is a 7th rounder.)

....
I guess we will just have to wait and see.
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Old 01-05-2011   #11
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Redskins signed Grossman for 1 yr, contract value unknown (If he signed for under $1M, he probably won't count).
Oh, I forgot about Grossman - that would help, if he counted. I saw a reference to him signing for league minimum (not enough to qualify), plus "incentives" (maybe enough to qualify? - I saw no details). If by some chance the stars align just right and both Grossman and Pitts count, then we could still end up with Dunta's 3rd round pick.

You're right, I think we just have to wait and see.
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Old 01-05-2011   #12
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyser View Post
Oh, I forgot about Grossman - that would help
Grossman should count. If he signed for enough $$$.
Quote:
Originally Posted by keyser View Post
Oh man, you're right. Wade Smith should also qualify. So, we have no net loss of free agents (and maybe even a net gain, depending on whether Pitts counts).

That means we should expect at most a 7th round compensatory pick.
Bingo. Pitts was never tendered and signed late and I don't think he will count. As you suggested, the Texans will likely have a zero net loss and receive a net value loss compensatory pick in the 7th round.
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Old 01-05-2011   #13
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
Grossman should count. If he signed for enough $$$.

Bingo. Pitts was never tendered and signed late and I don't think he will count. As you suggested, the Texans will likely have a zero net loss and receive a net value loss compensatory pick in the 7th round.
(1) Players that are true unrestricted free agents and who sign with their new team during the unrestricted free agency period count.

(2) Players who were released by their former clubs do not count.

(3) Players who sign after June 1 that were not tendered offers by their former clubs also do not count.

...

So, it looks like Pitts falls into category (3) and does not count.

Grosman probably signed for the veteran minimum of $760K.
He did start the last 3 games, so maybe he earned some bonus for playing time???
Maybe we're in luck.
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Old 01-05-2011   #14
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Default Re: Compensatory Pick

This link shows our FA activity: http://www.mkrob.com/2010-nfl-free-agent-signings-list/

Quote:
HOUSTON TEXANS-Signed TE Michael Gaines, K Neil Rackers and C Wade Smith. Re-signed P Matt Turk and WR Kevin Walter. Agreed to terms with LB Danny Clark.
I went through the list of other teams, and didn't notice anyone of ours that got signed besides Rex and Dunta.

Ryan Moats and Chester Pitts are the two possible ones, but I doubt they were given enough money to count.
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