Draft position question

[drs23]

What difference in position does it make if the Texans win vs. lose this upcoming game vs. the Jags? Surely no more than 1, huh?

I hope this is in the right section?

[JB]

Could be a difference of maybe 10 picks, depending on how other teams do.

[steelbtexan]

Unfortunately it will probably be better for the Texans future if they lose Sunday. In this draft 10 spots is a huge deal when it comes to drafting an impact player.

[Maddict5]

as of right now we're picking #8. depending on results sunday, that could change to #2 or #12

my guess (based on a loss sunday) is that we'll be picking #5 or #6

[drs23]

Damn, didn't realise it was that big of a swing.

[Señor Stan]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth



Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Strength of Schedule*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542

* Includes W-L of all opponents (not just those played to date).

"best" case scenario if the Texans lose looks like the #4 pick.

Carolina - # 1 lock
Broncos - even if Broncos win, they will have the lower strength of schedule.
Loser of Cards / Niners will draft ahead of the Texans.

To pick #4...
The Bengals have to beat the Ravens (Ravens still alive for division with a Steelers loss, so they will be trying.)
The Bills have to beat the Jets (Jets are locked into the 6 seed - should rest)

To Pick #5
Two of the Bengals, Bills, or Cowboys have to win.
Cowboys have Philly in Philly, but the Eagles will probably rest players after their crazy Tuesday night game.
The winner of the Cards/49ers will pick after the Texans

Basically if the Texans lose, they will pick no worse than 7th.

If they win...

worst case would be 14th...but don't have the SOS for the teams with 6 wins...might be better than that.

[drs23]

Originally Posted by Señor Stan

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth



Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Strength of Schedule*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542

* Includes W-L of all opponents (not just those played to date).

"best" case scenario if the Texans lose looks like the #4 pick.

Carolina - # 1 lock
Broncos - even if Broncos win, they will have the lower strength of schedule.
Loser of Cards / Niners will draft ahead of the Texans.

To pick #4...
The Bengals have to beat the Ravens (Ravens still alive for division with a Steelers loss, so they will be trying.)
The Bills have to beat the Jets (Jets are locked into the 6 seed - should rest)

To Pick #5
Two of the Bengals, Bills, or Cowboys have to win.
Cowboys have Philly in Philly, but the Eagles will probably rest players after their crazy Tuesday night game.
The winner of the Cards/49ers will pick after the Texans

Basically if the Texans lose, they will pick no worse than 7th.

If they win...

worst case would be 14th...but don't have the SOS for the teams with 6 wins...might be better than that.

Thanks for running that down Stan. I'm following the mock threads closely. Looks like the Texans will be in a great position to draft a game changer. Need a few more pieces I know, but it's a start.

[Ryan]

Nick Fairley...

[drs23]

Originally Posted by Ryan

Nick Fairley...

Yeah, he's sure looked good in the Auburn games I got to watch. He plays hard and tuff.

[kiwitexansfan]

Originally Posted by Ryan

Nick Fairley...

Is he the dude thats gets all the flags for roughness?

[JB]

Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan

Is he the dude thats gets all the flags for roughness?

Yep

[kiwitexansfan]

Originally Posted by JB

Yep

[Scratches name off draft board/]

[Ryan]

He's not quite the prospect Suh was last year, but he would be an instant game changer for us if we get him. The roughness penalties don't concern me, as it would just take a slight adjustment to fix that.

[Wolf]

I personally think the Texans will come out and stomp the Jags this weekend and ruin their season, it is what we do

I want the Texans to win, but I don't want for them to be picking middle of the road again and miss out on an impact player and I definitely don't want them to trade picks to move up.

it seems like a huge swing in draft position.


I am conflicted as a fan on this one. sacrifice one game for the future of of the Texans (maybe I am having a Rockets moment on how they when they got Akeem (spelled that way at the time)

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by Ryan

He's not quite the prospect Suh was last year, but he would be an instant game changer for us if we get him. The roughness penalties don't concern me, as it would just take a slight adjustment to fix that.

Fairley is a great prospect

But for the Texans needs Dareus would seem to be better fit.

[JB]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Fairley is a great prospect

But for the Texans needs Dareus would seem to be better fit.

Why? I don't know much about Dareus, but why would he be a better fit?

[Texan4Ever]

Originally Posted by JB

Why? I don't know much about Dareus, but why would he be a better fit?

I don't like Dareus at all. He reminds me of Travis Johnson, good college player but won't translate to the NFL. Also, I see him as a 3-4 DE, sorta like Evander "Ziggy" Hood of the Steelers.

[Smokedawg]

Two Words: Patrick Peterson

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by JB

Why? I don't know much about Dareus, but why would he be a better fit?

Dareus looked bigger than Fairley to me in the 3 games I watched him in this yr. (LSU,South Car,Aub) but after reading his bio it lists him at 280 lbs. That's lighter than Fairley. I was wrong.

At 280 LBS Dareus is a prototypical 3-4 DE. He is strong as a bull.

[TexansSeminole]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Dareus looked bigger than Fairley to me in the 3 games I watched him in this yr. (LSU,South Car,Aub) but after reading his bio it lists him at 280 lbs. That's lighter than Fairley. I was wrong.

At 280 LBS Dareus is a prototypical 3-4 DE. He is strong as a bull.

Which wouldn't be a bad pick considering the fact that there will no doubt be a defensive coaching change. We could be running a 3-4 next year.

Picking in the 5-10 range also gives us an opportunity to trade down. Picks 5-10 are better trade bait than 1-4 IMO. Getting an extra 2nd rounder or maybe two 3rd rounders would be ideal in our situation.

I like the idea of going heavy pass rushing route if we go to the 3-4. We need a Ryan Kerrigan, Von Miller, Dareus type of player. While Darues isn't a pure pass rusher, he creates enough havoc and serves two purposes. After that we need to go safety in one of the next 2 rounds. Overall, I think we would be better served grabbing the front 7 players we need to add depth rather than draft a CB in the later rounds. If we can't get a top flight corner in this draft we may as well ignore it altogether. We have plenty of young corners, adding a veteran CB in the off-season would be the best move. It doesn't have to be Champ Bailey but a guy who can atleast play the nickel and start here and there.