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Old 08-01-2005   #1
Eyeguy
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Default Odds are good for Texans to make playoffs

Since realignment in 2002 36 teams have made the playoffs. Of those 36 teams 18 did not make the playoffs the year before. (50%)
10 of those 18 teams were from the AFC. (55%)
Of the AFC teams, the average # of wins the previous year before making the playoffs was 6.8.
These teams won an average of 4.2 more game the year they made the playoffs from the previous year.

2002
colts 10-6 + 4 wins
titians 11-5 + 4 wins
Browns 9-7 + 2 wins

2003
Pats 14-2 +5 wins
Ravens 10-6 +3 wins
Cheifs 13-3 + 5 wins
Broncos 10-6 + 1 win

2004
Jets 10-6 +4 wins
squeelers 15-1 +9 wins
Chargers 12-4 +8 wins

A common thread with many of these teams was a breakout year for a young Quaterback. Many belive that this will be David Carrs year.
It is not reaching too far to predict for a 7-9 team to go 11-5 and make the playoffs. The key seems to be if a teams get hot early and is underestimated early in the season. Like any NFL team the health of key players is critical as well.

My prediction:
TEXANS 5-3 first half of season
6-2 second half of season

11-5 make playoffs

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Old 08-01-2005   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyeguy
The key seems to be if a teams get hot early and is underestimated early in the season.
I think the fact that some people feel the Texans aren't going to be anything more than a little better than last year, and that Carr won't improve much, will make other teams underestimate them.
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Old 08-01-2005   #3
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11-5 would make me a happy man! I like those stats, thinking of a wager now...
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Old 08-01-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyeguy
Since realignment in 2002 36 teams have made the playoffs. Of those 36 teams 18 did not make the playoffs the year before. (50%)
10 of those 18 teams were from the AFC. (55%)
Of the AFC teams, the average # of wins the previous year before making the playoffs was 6.8.
These teams won an average of 4.2 more game the year they made the playoffs from the previous year.

2002
colts 10-6 + 4 wins
titians 11-5 + 4 wins
Browns 9-7 + 2 wins

2003
Pats 14-2 +5 wins
Ravens 10-6 +3 wins
Cheifs 13-3 + 5 wins
Broncos 10-6 + 1 win

2004
Jets 10-6 +4 wins
squeelers 15-1 +9 wins
Chargers 12-4 +8 wins

A common thread with many of these teams was a breakout year for a young Quaterback. Many belive that this will be David Carrs year.
It is not reaching too far to predict for a 7-9 team to go 11-5 and make the playoffs. The key seems to be if a teams get hot early and is underestimated early in the season. Like any NFL team the health of key players is critical as well.

My prediction:
TEXANS 5-3 first half of season
6-2 second half of season

11-5 make playoffs

I wouldn't quite push it that far. The texans are a team on the rise. I see 8-8, respectively, for you all this season and possibly 9 or 10 wins in '06. But I cannot stress that O-Line enough! The '06 draft is loaded with possibly franchise OT's, so that is a plus for the texans. But until that O-Line improves -- no playoffs, IMHO....
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Old 08-01-2005   #5
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Only 6 teams in the NFL had more than 10 wins last year, and breaking out of the 7-10 win area is a little tougher than going from 4 wins to middle of the pack. It could happen (10+ wins) but it's unlikely.
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Old 08-01-2005   #6
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It all depends on how we come out and play the first 2 games. We can't afford a start like last years. The Bills and Steelers are both going to be very tough games but I feel we have a good chance to win them both if we don't turn the ball over. A QB starting his first game and the Steelers early in the heat help.

A 2-0 start before our bye week would be huge!!!
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Old 08-01-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
Only 6 teams in the NFL had more than 10 wins last year, and breaking out of the 7-10 win area is a little tougher than going from 4 wins to middle of the pack. It could happen (10+ wins) but it's unlikely.
Vinny,
I don't disagree that it is very diffcult to win 11 games. It is however intresting that the 3 teams in the AFC since realignment that have had 7-9 records,each made the PLAYOFFS the next year!

Clev. 01' 7-9 02' 9-7 playoffs
tenn. 01' 7-9 02' 11-5 playoffs
Balt. 02' 7-9 03' 10-6 playoffs

I guess I should change my prediction to 10-6
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Old 08-02-2005   #8
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I'm predicting a 9-7 season and squeaking by on a wildcard spot. Two games better than last year is not all that out of the question.

It would be nice to have our first winning season and first playoff berth in the same year.
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Old 08-02-2005   #9
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I reckon a 9-7 season will see the Texans taking another step in the right direction and the team as a whole showing improvement.
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Old 08-02-2005   #10
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Atalanta +6 wins in 04' M. Vicks 4th year makes playoffs

S.D. +8 wins in 04' D. Brees 4th year makes playoffs

TEXANS + ? wins in 05' D Carr 4th year makes playoffs

ODDS ARE GOOD THAT TEXANS MAKE PLAYOFFS!

25 to 1 TEXANS make AFC Championship Game 24-7wager.com 8/2/05
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Old 08-02-2005   #11
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So off with the rose colored glasses already! We will probably be 9-7 this year. Not enough to even be a wildcard. BUT, much improved and poised to make our run in 2006.
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Old 08-02-2005   #12
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Over/Under on TEXANS wins is 7.5
9to1 odds to win AFC South
ODDS ARE GOOD!

8-2-2004
thread titled 12-4 on this site
correct 7-9 prediction for 04' season

swisher
frequentfliertx
aj
doct3rj
dominator davis

Good guess by them, wonder if they veiw this season as successfully as I do?
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Old 08-02-2005   #13
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Right now, I am at an 8-8 prediction. I started 9-7 early in the offseason, but I was a little disapointed by the lack of any real impact players in the draft or FA, and the Glenn depature, so I backed off slightly. If they impress me in the preseason, I might be back up to a 9-7, or on the very outside a 10-6 prediction. OTOH, if they don't look so hot, I might back off to 7-9. The early returns make me think I will be going north, if anything. You guys might want to pay attention, as so far in the first 3 years, I have been 100% accurate in my preseason prediction. I'm going for 4 for 4 in 2005.
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Old 08-02-2005   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
I'm predicting a 9-7 season and squeaking by on a wildcard spot. Two games better than last year is not all that out of the question.

It would be nice to have our first winning season and first playoff berth in the same year.
Pretty much how my mascara'd eye sees it too. Been believing in 9-7 since before the draft. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I like icing!

With Buchannon, Mathis, Morency, T. Johnson, we could do better...it is all up to our notoriously stinky O line to man up and the entire team to look into better consistancy.

I am tired of speculation. GET THE SEASON STARTED ALREADY!!!
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Old 08-02-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FILO_girl
I am tired of speculation. GET THE SEASON STARTED ALREADY!!!
We're only a little over a week away from the first preseason game. So we're getting there albeit at a snails pace.
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Old 08-02-2005   #16
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My initial feeling is a 10-6 record for the Texans this year. If the OL tanks in the preseason, I might lower my prediction, but right now, I am very optomistic.
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