Baldinger: Bob McNair "content with mediocrity"

[Texans_Chick]

Originally Posted by ChampionTexan

I heard Payton say they believed there was a 70-80% chance that they would recover the kick. Assuming he's right, what this means is that 7 or 8 times out of 10 it would have worked, 2 or 3 times out of 10, it would have been Colts ball in great field position, and 10 out of 10 times it would have been a great call.

I think this was the turning point in the game - particularly coming on the heels of the Saints FG that ended the first half (after a three and out by the Colts).

Unfortunately, it brought back memories of a the on-side kick the Jags did against the Texans to open up the second half of one of their 2008 games. I thought that was the turning point in that game also.

On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.

He was very fortunate that they recovered. Given the way that scrum went, it is quite possible The Peyton would have had the ball + a short field to get a touchdown.

All this being said, I wish this thread title would die and we would put this conversation elsewhere.

[HOU-TEX]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.

He was very fortunate that they recovered. Given the way that scrum went, it is quite possible The Peyton would have had the ball + a short field to get a touchdown.

All this being said, I wish this thread title would die and we would put this conversation elsewhere.

If the Colt player (#81 I think) wouldn't have lunged forward and hit the ball there would've been a penalty and The Peyton would've had the ball in Saints territory. The ball hadn't gone 10 yards when the Colt hit it. The ball appeared to be curving towards the sideline away from the 10 yard mark.

Just thought I'd throw out my .02

[Texan_Bill]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

All this being said, I wish this thread title would die and we would put this conversation elsewhere.

No kidding!

[Second Honeymoon]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

He can say they believed there was a 110% chance they recover the ball and it doesn't make it true. I liked the 4th down call which failed and don't like the onside kick call that succeeded.

agreed. payton got a little lucky last night.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

He can say they believed there was a 110% chance they recover the ball and it doesn't make it true. I liked the 4th down call which failed and don't like the onside kick call that succeeded.

I totally agree. I didn't mine the onside but I love the 4th down call. I think teams should almost always go for it on 4th down and reasonably short if they are inside the 10. Unless it's late in the game and the score dictates a FG, it's almost always the right call, IMO. By the way, that's one area where Kubiak's game management is pretty strong.

[Second Honeymoon]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

I totally agree. I didn't mine the onside but I love the 4th down call. I think teams should almost always go for it on 4th down and reasonably short if they are inside the 10. Unless it's late in the game and the score dictates a FG, it's almost always the right call, IMO. By the way, that's one area where Kubiak's game management is pretty strong.

yeah, you have to go for it against the Colts. against the Ravens, Jets, or other defensive team you take the 3 points, but against your top offensive squads like the Colts you have to go for it.

The onsides kick was insane but it worked out. props to Payton.

[Mailman]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

And don't get me wrong. I think Payton has done a great job as well. And I agree he would have done a good job regardless of the outcome tonight.

I guess that is a point I have been trying to make around here. Perception is reality and yet variable. Texans win against the Jets in game 1 and lose against the Pats in game 16 to end with the same record and they are in the playoffs. The entire MB, radio discussion, etc. is different. Does that truly reflect in any way on Kubiak as a coach?

Guess I gotta get busy spreading the rep wealth because this is a very good post.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by BigTimeTexanFan

After the Saints recovered that on-side kick everyone I was watching the game with were all saying how great a call that was by the coach. My response was it's only a great call because it worked. Had it not worked and they lost, Payton would have been the goat.

Not only that..... If Kubiak would have called that same outside stretch 3 times in a row turning it over on downs..... you'd never hear the end of it.

Then to open the second half with an onside kick..... doesn't matter if it worked or not, Kubiak would be crucified for that.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by silvrhand

The saints won the coaching battle last night, it was very obvious.

Anyone want to talk about the lack of intensity the Colts had? I mean they only scored 7 points in the last three Qtrs of the game.

When are they going to learn you have to play 4 Qtrs of football to win in this league?

Talk about mediocre.

[Norg]

Wouldn't that be sweet if it was the texans vs the the saints
I think we could have beaten the saints handly by at least
14 points I can't wait for next season all rdy playing the NFC
east and all

[DexmanC]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Anyone want to talk about the lack of intensity the Colts had? I mean they only scored 7 points in the last three Qtrs of the game.

When are they going to learn you have to play 4 Qtrs of football to win in this league?

Talk about mediocre.

Kind of hard to score points when you're sitting on your ass. The Saints
executed their gameplan, and once the scored dictated the Colts HAD to score,
that's when they were finally able to force Peyton to make a fatal mistake.

Peyton Manning had the ball only THREE PLAYS in the entire second quarter,
and then the Saints executed an onside kick to further keep Peyton sitting.
That's how you beat the Colts, but only the Saints were able to execute
that well-known gameplan this season. There was nothing "mediocre" about
that game.

The Saints just killed any excuse you guys could possibly use to save Kubiak's
ass yet again. I feel he's retarding the growth of this team, you don't. I
hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.

[GP]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Not only that..... If Kubiak would have called that same outside stretch 3 times in a row turning it over on downs..... you'd never hear the end of it.

Then to open the second half with an onside kick..... doesn't matter if it worked or not, Kubiak would be crucified for that.

One of the things that I have to actually give major props to Kubiak for, is how he took more risks in 2009 than he ever had in any season prior to this one.

He went for it on 4th down a lot more than he ever has. And he was doing it long before our annual Rally 'Round The Coach final four or five games of the season.

I would not crucify Kubiak for attempting an onside kick against the Colts. You do everything you can do to get the ball back when you play the Colts. Look, chances are that Manning takes it from the 20, on a normal Saints kickoff to start the 2nd half, andh e eats up clock and STILL scores a TD.

But what Sean Payton did, is attempt to multiple things:

1. Prohibit the Colts and Manning from having the ball. The Saints essentially wasted the coin flip by going 3-and-out in their opening series. Now they are looking at giving Manning the ball to start the 2nd half. Ouch.

2. Play the percentages. I have a feeling the stats show that an onside kick is statistically more likely to succeed than Chris Brown trotting with the ball and lobbing it to a receiver near the goal line when the defense is already playing the goal line to begin with. I'm just sayin'.....

3. Swing momentum back to his team and ignite the offense a bit. This would have helped spark the whole offense, which needed a break. And it also rallies the Saints defense, because they see that the coach is doing whatever it takes to keep Brees on the field.

It was a great call whether it works or not. It's the Super Bowl, you're playing Peyton Manning, and you don't have much else to do BUT to try and throw that play at them. If Kubiak was doing that, in THAT same scenario as Sean Payton did, I would not be mad if it failed to give us the ball back. And I say that with all honesty.

The Chris Brown HB pass is a bad call because it was done at the absolutely worst time: We had the Jags defense on their heels, it was 1st down near the end zone for pete's sake, Chris Brown telegraphed that it was a HB pass as soon as he received the ball from Schaub, and he should have tossed it out of bounds. Fail, Fail, Fail, and Fail some more.

Even Kubiak didn;t try to defende the poor playcall in his Loser Monday presser. He owned up to that one very quickly once it was posed to him as a question.

The debate over the HB Pass Debacle should end. It really should. Sunshiners are using this instance the same way the birthers are debating Obama's citzenship papers. It's futile.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by GP

One of the things that I have to actually give major props to Kubiak for, is how he took more risks in 2009 than he ever had in any season prior to this one.

He went for it on 4th down a lot more than he ever has. And he was doing it long before our annual Rally 'Round The Coach final four or five games of the season.

shweeewww.... at least that's one thing.

Originally Posted by GP

It was a great call whether it works or not. It's the Super Bowl, you're playing Peyton Manning, and you don't have much else to do BUT to try and throw that play at them. If Kubiak was doing that, in THAT same scenario as Sean Payton did, I would not be mad if it failed to give us the ball back. And I say that with all honesty.

I think it was a gutsy call, I won't deny that. But I felt the same way I felt when I saw Chris Brown pull the ball back to throw... what's it called? Chutzpa... I like it.

To tell you the truth, after I saw the Saints recovered, I said, "GK would never have the gnads to call that play... maybe that's what GP & Dex are talking about."

But honestly, I could live without it.

Don't twist that into saying I applaud Kubiak for the half back pass. I wouldn't have done it either. But it's that same chutzpa Peyton showed last night... I think anyway. Prior to that series, and there have been series after that, where we didn't get it done on the goal line. If you want to play percentages.... it was time to pull something out of the ole posterior.

Originally Posted by GP

The Chris Brown HB pass is a bad call because it was done at the absolutely worst time: We had the Jags defense on their heels, it was 1st down near the end zone for pete's sake....

That's when you do it.

Originally Posted by GP

Chris Brown telegraphed that it was a HB pass as soon as he received the ball from Schaub, and he should have tossed it out of bounds. Fail, Fail, Fail, and Fail some more.

If it were telegraphed, they would have been covering the TE. He was wide open, they were playing the run.

Originally Posted by GP

Even Kubiak didn;t try to defende the poor playcall in his Loser Monday presser. He owned up to that one very quickly once it was posed to him as a question.

I don't think we can take Kubiak at his word when he is at the podium. He's just protecting his players.... that's what he's always done.

Take McNair's words with Kubiak's actions.... he's been trying to get our leaders to take over the game all year long. That's what this team is missing.

Originally Posted by GP

The debate over the HB Pass Debacle should end. It really should. Sunshiners are using this instance the same way the birthers are debating Obama's citzenship papers. It's futile.

I promise, I won't bring it up again until you do.

But I think we can milk this one till September.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.

Excellent piece you linked in your blog. I love that they showed the math, as opposed to some of the other stat sites.

The EP for a failed onside attempt is -2.1 pts, and the EP for a success is +1.2 pts. At first glance it appears onside kicks are always losing propositions. But don’t forget that you’ve always got to kickoff somehow, and a normal kickoff averages -0.7 pts for the kicking team.

EP(normal KO) = -0.7
EP(onside recovery) = +1.2
EP(onside failure) = -2.1

Let’s call the success rate ‘x’. Solving for the break-even success rate, where the combined expected points of an onside kick equal that of a normal kick, we get:

1.2x + (1-x)(-2.1) = -0.7
1.2x - 2.1 +2.1x = -0.7
3.3x = 1.4
x = 42.4%

So 60% is a lot more than the break even success rate of 42%, and as long as a team has the element of surprise, onside kicks are well worth the risk—at least under ‘normal’ football conditions. Late in games, however, depending on the score and time remaining, we can’t use the EP analysis anymore. We need to turn to win probability analysis, something I’ll look at in part 2 of this article.

The catch is that teams can’t do this very often. The key is that the onside attempt is unexpected. As soon as a team is known for sneaky onside kicks, its success rate will go down. But this isn’t such a bad thing. As opponents are forced to respect the threat of an onside kick, their normal kick return blocking will suffer, allowing overall net kickoff distance to improve. Ultimately, there would be an equilibrium, making life more difficult for the receiving team.

So according to the Advanced NFL Stats, the Saints onside kick was a good risk. As long as they hadn't onside kicked much in previous games. And that doesn't take into account Peyton Manning and the Colts' drive success percentage.

Still, I thought it was crazy when it happened live. Maybe that's why it works, when it seems absolutely crazy. I know the Saints were a different team after that play.

Regarding the thread, these things always morph into something else. First it was Baldinger, then onsides kicks, later I might post some barbecue recipes. Maybe that means we're content with anarchy? It's the offseason, so everything's a bit looser.

Here are some stats I compiled myself of passes attempted by non-QBs (or wildcat QBs) during the '09 season.

12-28-224 yards 6 TDs 7 INTs 71.1 Passer Rating

A boom or bust play. Then I looked at only RB passes (non-wildcat):

3-12-55 3 TDs 3 INTs 46.1 Passer Rating

So you have a 1 in 4 chance at success. A 1 in 4 chance at total failure. And a 50/50 chance that you'll run another play. Incredibily risky. It's the type of play you want to run with a big lead, and then just to put on film for future opponents to prepare for. An atrocious play call. Which as GP pointed out, Kubiak admitted to. I'm fairly certain that "Stagger Gary" won't find its way back into future game plans.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by DexmanC

Kind of hard to score points when you're sitting on your ass. The Saints
executed their gameplan, and once the scored dictated the Colts HAD to score,
that's when they were finally able to force Peyton to make a fatal mistake.

Peyton Manning had the ball only THREE PLAYS in the entire second quarter,
and then the Saints executed an onside kick to further keep Peyton sitting.
That's how you beat the Colts, but only the Saints were able to execute
that well-known gameplan this season. There was nothing "mediocre" about
that game.

The Saints just killed any excuse you guys could possibly use to save Kubiak's
ass yet again. I feel he's retarding the growth of this team, you don't. I
hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.

Six plays, I believe.

But that's beside the point.

I think you have a very, very warped view of how easy it is to take a team to the Super Bowl. You seem to think that any really good coach can come in and take a team, any team, from scratch to the Super Bowl or at least, to the play offs, in 3-4 years.

If it were that easy, more teams would make it to the Super Bowl and no team would go for 4-5 years without going to the playoffs. When you consider that half the teams in the league haven't made it to the Super Bowl (since the merger) and and in the past 30 years, only 5 teams haven't had a playoff drought of over 4 years (Giants, Ravens, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers) and 17 teams have had a drought of 7+ years in that same period... including the Texans. And the Texans were starting at a deficit.

Kubiak has improved this team each year. If the team takes a big step backwards next year, I'll join your side and ask for Kubiak to be gone. But I don't see anything, including the schedule, that makes me believe that this team is going to be worse next year.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Lucky

So you have a 1 in 4 chance at success. A 1 in 4 chance at total failure. And a 50/50 chance that you'll run another play.

Out of curiosity... do you know what our TD/redzone ratio was prior to that game?

[Goatcheese]

Originally Posted by DexmanC

Kind of hard to score points when you're sitting on your ass. The Saints
executed their gameplan, and once the scored dictated the Colts HAD to score,
that's when they were finally able to force Peyton to make a fatal mistake.

Peyton Manning had the ball only THREE PLAYS in the entire second quarter,
and then the Saints executed an onside kick to further keep Peyton sitting.
That's how you beat the Colts, but only the Saints were able to execute
that well-known gameplan this season. There was nothing "mediocre" about
that game.

The Saints just killed any excuse you guys could possibly use to save Kubiak's
ass yet again. I feel he's retarding the growth of this team, you don't. I
hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.

I'm so tired of all the excuses.

Stop making excuses!

Woulda, coulda, shoulda!

Blah, blah, blah!

Parrot, parrot, parrot!

Regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate!

/end pink soaper imitation

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

But that's beside the point.

I think you have a very, very warped view of how easy it is to take a team to the Super Bowl. You seem to think that any really good coach can come in and take a team, any team, from scratch to the Super Bowl or at least, to the play offs, in 3-4 years.

Does anybody remember Jim Haslett?

He was the coach that brought a winning attitude to that club. Brought them their first play-off victory by beating the St Louis Rams... the greatest show on turf... in 2000 I believe. They had won their division, the NFC West for the second time in team history. That play-off team was built off the failed efforts of Mike Ditka, who brought that team Ricky Williams, Cam Cleeland, Mark Fields, La'Roi Glover, Sammy Knight, Keith Mitchell, Alex Molden, Chris Naeole, Kieth Poole, Willie Roaf, Kyle Turley, & Fred Weary.

In 2000, they went 10-6. after Ditka went 3-13 the year before. They then finished 7-9 in 2001, 9-7 in 2002. Both times missing the play-offs. In 2003 & 2004, they finished 8-8. In 2005, the Saints finished 3-13 once again, never playing a home game in their home stadium thanks to Hurricane Katrina.

That 2005 roster included players like Jamal Brown(actually, I think the whole 2006 OL was Hasslette's except the center), Devery Henderson, Duece McAllister, Joe Horn, Will Smith, Darren Howard, I think both starting corners, and a safety (I can't remember their names).

I am not saying Payton was handed a Championship team. I think he's done an excellent job keeping that team fresh, with good young talent. He also seems to hit on his FA aquisitions. despite going 7-9, then 8-8 the two years after their first NFC Championship appearance.

So yeah, Neck, I'm with you. It's not like he started from scratch.

[DexmanC]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Six plays, I believe.

But that's beside the point.

I think you have a very, very warped view of how easy it is to take a team to the Super Bowl. You seem to think that any really good coach can come in and take a team, any team, from scratch to the Super Bowl or at least, to the play offs, in 3-4 years.

If it were that easy, more teams would make it to the Super Bowl and no team would go for 4-5 years without going to the playoffs. When you consider that half the teams in the league haven't made it to the Super Bowl (since the merger) and and in the past 30 years, only 5 teams haven't had a playoff drought of over 4 years (Giants, Ravens, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers) and 17 teams have had a drought of 7+ years in that same period... including the Texans. And the Texans were starting at a deficit.

Kubiak has improved this team each year. If the team takes a big step backwards next year, I'll join your side and ask for Kubiak to be gone. But I don't see anything, including the schedule, that makes me believe that this team is going to be worse next year.

I'm just asking for playoffs. The Superbowl talk will begin once we reach
the PLAYOFF milestone. Most teams we call ourselves contending with
next year have made that mark within the last four years. All I'm saying,
is that if this cat can't get it done in FIVE, the organization needs to
quit dragging its feet.

I seen his episode. Hopefully, this regime can get this show out of
syndication.

[sbalderrama]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.

According to Peter King, the odds were probably even more in the Saints favor based on what they saw on tape:

"When the Saints looked at the Colts on tape, they saw two up-men on the front line of the Indy kick-return team cheating. That is, when the kicker approached the ball, two guys on the right of the kick-return unit -- as the kickoff team looked ahead, to the left -- turned and began retreating to set up their blocks for a return just before the ball was kicked. So when Payton saw this, he figured the Saints would definitely try an onside kick at some point of the game."

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz0f0xdgsIA