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Old 01-26-2010   #1
steelbtexan
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Default Thoughts

This draft is so deep and players taken in the high 2nd rd will be better than players taken in the low 1st rd in the 2011 draft. (where we hope the Texans will be drafting in 2011)

With Smithiak being in a win or else position next year do you think they should

Trade a 2011 1st rd. pick for a 2010 high 2nd rd pick. I would do it.
My mock wouldlook something like this.

Rd1 Iupati
Rd2 K.Wilson
Rd2 Dwyer/Mathews
Rd3 Burnett
Rd 4 L.Joseph
Rd5 E.Sanders
Rd5 Newhouse
Rd6 Coker
Rd7 R.Preist Cb TCU/B Bowden P Va Tech

What do you guys think?
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Old 01-26-2010   #2
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Default Re: Thoughts

For me it would have to be a very high pick in 2nd round and why would that team put off until next season what they need to get today? I like NE spots in 2nd but they had similar situation last draft & did not trade up. The hard part in any trade is finding a partner. And I ain't just talking football.
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Old 01-26-2010   #3
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Default Re: Thoughts

Not a fan of trading away EARLY future picks. More than likely we would move up in the 2nd round using our current 2nd and either a later 2010 pick or a 2011 mid rounder. But I do understand where you're coming from so I'll entertain the idea.

Here's a hypothetical situation. Just an example so I don't want everyone upset if they don't like the picks. No RB is signed in free agency, Dunta isn't re-signed and CB is considered a need.

Let's pretend we had DT Brian Price rated as the 10th best prospect in the draft and Jonathan Dwyer as the 18th best prospect. When we're up to select in the 1st our board is set up as #10 Price, #18 Dwyer, and then all "lower" rated prospects. We select Brian Price as he's our highest rated player.

Then it gets into round 2 and Jonathan Dwyer is still around. We're around pick #40, he's still on the board. Spiller,Best,Matthews, whoever... has been selected and the drop off in our RB ratings go from Dwyer at 18th overall to a 4th/5th rd prospect. There's 11 more picks until our 2nd rounder at 51 is up. But to add to the mix, there are several CB's still on our board that we have rated as 1st rounders (#23-#28 ranked prospects). We have a VERY strong feeling Dwyer will not last to our pick. RB is a NEED as is CB. We have a STRONG feeling that the cb's will probably last till our 2nd but after them, we don't like the prospects as able to come in a start next season. Other positions such as interior OL and S look to have GREAT value in 3rd and 4th that can battle for starting spots.

In that case, I can see how maybe we could use our 2011 1st to select Dwyer. Again, it's just hypothetical but it'd probably be a player that they had rated WAY higher. I'd be very hesitant but if there are other prospects that we could still get with our current 2nd that they had rated as 1st rounders and they liked the grouping of guys at other positions for our 3rd/4th/etc. then it could work out well!
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Old 01-26-2010   #4
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Not a fan of trading away EARLY future picks. More than likely we would move up in the 2nd round using our current 2nd and either a later 2010 pick or a 2011 mid rounder. But I do understand where you're coming from so I'll entertain the idea.

Here's a hypothetical situation. Just an example so I don't want everyone upset if they don't like the picks. No RB is signed in free agency, Dunta isn't re-signed and CB is considered a need.

Let's pretend we had DT Brian Price rated as the 10th best prospect in the draft and Jonathan Dwyer as the 18th best prospect. When we're up to select in the 1st our board is set up as #10 Price, #18 Dwyer, and then all "lower" rated prospects. We select Brian Price as he's our highest rated player.

Then it gets into round 2 and Jonathan Dwyer is still around. We're around pick #40, he's still on the board. Spiller,Best,Matthews, whoever... has been selected and the drop off in our RB ratings go from Dwyer at 18th overall to a 4th/5th rd prospect. There's 11 more picks until our 2nd rounder at 51 is up. But to add to the mix, there are several CB's still on our board that we have rated as 1st rounders (#23-#28 ranked prospects). We have a VERY strong feeling Dwyer will not last to our pick. RB is a NEED as is CB. We have a STRONG feeling that the cb's will probably last till our 2nd but after them, we don't like the prospects as able to come in a start next season. Other positions such as interior OL and S look to have GREAT value in 3rd and 4th that can battle for starting spots.

In that case, I can see how maybe we could use our 2011 1st to select Dwyer. Again, it's just hypothetical but it'd probably be a player that they had rated WAY higher. I'd be very hesitant but if there are other prospects that we could still get with our current 2nd that they had rated as 1st rounders and they liked the grouping of guys at other positions for our 3rd/4th/etc. then it could work out well!
If a 1st rd. talent fell I would do the trade because it's like you get a free year out of your 2011 1st draft choice.

Carolina`did this in last years draft and took E.Brown. They also traded a 2008 2nd rd pick and a 2009 1st rd pick for a 2008 1st rd pick and took Stewart and Otah with their 2 1st rd picks.

This trade was the foundation that made Carolina have a dominant ground game.

There is a precedent for doing a trade like this and if you were in Kubes seat it would have to be considered.
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Old 01-27-2010   #5
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Default Re: Thoughts

I'd say no to the trade idea unless it was the first pick of the 2nd round and there was someone available that we really wanted badly. Also I know alot of people would love to take Iupati in the 1st round but there's a strong chance that Pittsburgh takes him ahead of us, they need O-line as bad as we do.
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Old 01-27-2010   #6
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
I'd say no to the trade idea unless it was the first pick of the 2nd round and there was someone available that we really wanted badly. Also I know alot of people would love to take Iupati in the 1st round but there's a strong chance that Pittsburgh takes him ahead of us, they need O-line as bad as we do.
Agreed

If there is a player they really like I think they should make the trade but dont reach for a guy.

I also agree with you that Iupati probably wont be there at 20. I could see Wilson (who has had great Sr.bowl practices) Dwyer,Thomas in play at 20.

In the 2nd Asamoah and M.Johnson could also be in play at 53
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Old 01-27-2010   #7
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Default Re: Thoughts

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I'd say no to the trade idea unless it was the first pick of the 2nd round and there was someone available that we really wanted badly. Also I know alot of people would love to take Iupati in the 1st round but there's a strong chance that Pittsburgh takes him ahead of us, they need O-line as bad as we do.
Good call & I agree. Some have Steelers taking Taylor Mays. As I see this FS falling after us, I hope Pittsburgh does select him bringing someone else down.
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Old 01-27-2010   #8
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Default Re: Thoughts

I think with Kubiak being on the "Hot Seat" as far as next season goes the team may be more open to trading up or trading future picks for additional picks this season or possibly even proven vets.
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Old 01-27-2010   #9
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What is the impact of a work stoppage in 2011 regarding the draft? If no agreement is reached by April of 2011 is there still a draft? What happens to those players if they are drafted but sit the season out?
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Old 01-27-2010   #10
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Default Re: Thoughts

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What is the impact of a work stoppage in 2011 regarding the draft? If no agreement is reached by April of 2011 is there still a draft? What happens to those players if they are drafted but sit the season out?
I believe if there is a work stoppage there wont be a draft in 2011. If there is a work stoppage after the draft the owners could choose to not sign draft picks until a new labor agreement is reached. This could be another senario.
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Old 01-27-2010   #11
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Default Re: Thoughts

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I think with Kubiak being on the "Hot Seat" as far as next season goes the team may be more open to trading up or trading future picks for additional picks this season or possibly even proven vets.
The Texans need to open up the checkbook. If Kubes is to keep his job. Smithiak needs to be agressive and think outside the box this offseason.

With the Texans being the 6th wealthiest franchise and this being an uncapped year. This is the year to go out and sign the best FA's in the market. McNair certianly has the the money to make any moves he wishes to make.
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Old 01-27-2010   #12
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
I believe if there is a work stoppage there wont be a draft in 2011. If there is a work stoppage after the draft the owners could choose to not sign draft picks until a new labor agreement is reached. This could be another senario.
I believe you are correct in this assumption .... at least thats what is most logical from a business standpoint.

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The Texans need to open up the checkbook. If Kubes is to keep his job. Smithiak needs to be agressive and think outside the box this offseason.

With the Texans being the 6th wealthiest franchise and this being an uncapped year. This is the year to go out and sign the best FA's in the market. McNair certianly has the the money to make any moves he wishes to make.
Many of the top FA's are RFA's and with no cap - Many if not all teams will be aggressive ....

I expect to see teams front load multi year deals as well .
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Old 01-27-2010   #13
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I believe you are correct in this assumption .... at least thats what is most logical from a business standpoint.



Many of the top FA's are RFA's and with no cap - Many if not all teams will be aggressive ....

I expect to see teams front load multi year deals as well .
Players usually go where the money is.

Luckily the Texans make more profit than most.

Money shouldn't be a problem if McNair is serious about helping Kubes get the pieces he needs to open up the checkbook. McNair cant use the salary cap excuse any longer.
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Old 01-27-2010   #14
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Players usually go where the money is.

Luckily the Texans make more profit than most.

Money shouldn't be a problem if McNair is serious about helping Kubes get the pieces he needs to open up the checkbook. McNair cant use the salary cap excuse any longer.

The Texans should also be freeing up some serious cash from the books this year. We should be saving money from Anthony Weavers salary, which was being paid last year, Andre Davis is grossly overpaid and should be gone, and Dunta won't be getting the franchise player money any more. That's 3 of the largest salaries on the team that will be freed up. I also think they could save some money by not re-signing Pitts, he's average at best, injured, and over 30 by next season. We can save money by drafting a rookie and starting him. Hopefully McNair is willing to spend that money on 1 or 2 top FA's, not some bottom feeders.

As for Pittsburgh they have the same needs as we do, secondary and O-line. If they take Iupati then we get Earl Thomas and vice versa.

Last edited by Wolf6151; 01-27-2010 at 10:38 PM.
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Old 01-28-2010   #15
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
The Texans should also be freeing up some serious cash from the books this year. We should be saving money from Anthony Weavers salary, which was being paid last year, Andre Davis is grossly overpaid and should be gone, and Dunta won't be getting the franchise player money any more. That's 3 of the largest salaries on the team that will be freed up. I also think they could save some money by not re-signing Pitts, he's average at best, injured, and over 30 by next season. We can save money by drafting a rookie and starting him. Hopefully McNair is willing to spend that money on 1 or 2 top FA's, not some bottom feeders.

As for Pittsburgh they have the same needs as we do, secondary and O-line. If they take Iupati then we get Earl Thomas and vice versa.
I don't think the yearly cost of the combined salaries is the issue working against big free agent signings. I actually think there are two main concerns:

1. Salary Cap- Obviously, if 2010 is uncapped, it becomes less of an issue.

2. This is the biggy! With all the young talent on the team approaching tenure and nearing their first big payday, paying premium dollars to top tier FAs can cause major issues with the salary structure within the team. If we sign, let's say, Karlos Dansby to a $60 million contract. Then, what does that do to negotiations with Demeco Ryans? He is probably going to demand at least that much money, if not more. Having this happen a couple of times could cause turmoil in the locker room and lead to losing talent or severely inflating the salary structure of the team causing Bob McNair financial issues and leading to Salary Cap issues if/when it is reinstituted.
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Old 01-28-2010   #16
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Default Re: Thoughts

If round five is TCU's OLT Marshal Newhouse....good job. I think he'll kick inside just fine. Stunk up the house at guard in the east west shirner's game......But he's never played it before. He'll be fine by September. I don't think you draft two of them though. Taking Iupati with the twenty, I don't think you need back that pick up. If we do what they've done before....Marshal Newhouse or whom ever will be in the third.
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Old 01-28-2010   #17
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I don't think the yearly cost of the combined salaries is the issue working against big free agent signings. I actually think there are two main concerns:

1. Salary Cap- Obviously, if 2010 is uncapped, it becomes less of an issue.

2. This is the biggy! With all the young talent on the team approaching tenure and nearing their first big payday, paying premium dollars to top tier FAs can cause major issues with the salary structure within the team. If we sign, let's say, Karlos Dansby to a $60 million contract. Then, what does that do to negotiations with Demeco Ryans? He is probably going to demand at least that much money, if not more. Having this happen a couple of times could cause turmoil in the locker room and lead to losing talent or severely inflating the salary structure of the team causing Bob McNair financial issues and leading to Salary Cap issues if/when it is reinstituted.
Bob McNair financial isuues? LOL

I'm willing to take that chance to finally improve the OL.

Couldn't the Jets for example say that signing B.Scott could hurt their s future contract negotiations with David Harris. Or signing Leonhard could hurt them in re-signing Former all-pro K.Rhodes?

Every team is in this situation.

It's all about committment.

Does McNair wanto step up to the plate like Woody Johnson and the Jets?

Or does he wanto run his organization like Mike Brown and the Bengals?

Only time will tell.
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Old 01-28-2010   #18
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Default Re: Thoughts

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I believe if there is a work stoppage there wont be a draft in 2011. If there is a work stoppage after the draft the owners could choose to not sign draft picks until a new labor agreement is reached. This could be another senario.
Q & A from Schefter.

Quote:
Q: Adam, With all the talk about the possible 2011 lockout, I haven't heard anything about the draft of that year. Would there still be a draft in 2011 if there is no labor agreement? I can't see how you skip a draft (and thus double up the next year in talent), but how can you have a draft when you don't know if the rookie wage scales will change -- will nobody sign a contract? -- Darren (Pittsburgh, Penn.)


A: Darren, believe it or not, there would be a draft in 2011, whether or not there is football. It's part of the current collective bargaining agreement, even after its expiration, that there will be a draft in 2011. A league official confirmed that for me and for you and for all the mailbag readers. So even if the games do not go on, the draft will. Thankfully (I LOVE the draft).
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...dschefter_adam

Also, I don't think this season's FA is going to be as good as what y'all are expecting. From the sounds of it, it actually might be boring as heck.
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Old 01-29-2010   #19
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Default Re: Thoughts

So it seems like it may be prudent to start spending 2011 picks on guys this year just in case there isn't a draft. At least you know you will be getting players with the picks this year as opposed to hoping you get to use them next year.

Also, if the CBA lags too much and they can't work a deal before February 2011, none of the underclassmen will elect to go to the draft. IF that happened, and that's a big IF, the draft would be very slim pickings.
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Old 01-29-2010   #20
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Default Re: Thoughts

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
So it seems like it may be prudent to start spending 2011 picks on guys this year just in case there isn't a draft. At least you know you will be getting players with the picks this year as opposed to hoping you get to use them next year.

Also, if the CBA lags too much and they can't work a deal before February 2011, none of the underclassmen will elect to go to the draft. IF that happened, and that's a big IF, the draft would be very slim pickings.
This is why I'm for trading 2011 draft picks for 2011 draft picks.

This and the fact that this years draft has 1st rd. talent that will fall to the 2nd rd.

This years draft is one of the deepest in years.

Another benefit is trading will help save on the Salary cap in 2011. Because you wont have to pay 1st rd $ to a draft pick. This should set the Team up well when a CBA is reached in 2011 and play resumes in 2012.
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