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Old 04-29-2013   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

My latest post:

My 2013 Texans draft grades for fans who hate draft grades

The short version is that everybody gets an incomplete because these dudes haven't played real man football yet.

LZ didn't do draft grades but gave his first impressions too:

My thoughts and an overview of every Houston Texans 2013 draft pick
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Old 04-29-2013   #2
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."
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Old 04-29-2013   #3
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
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Old 04-29-2013   #4
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??
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Old 04-29-2013   #5
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Predraft is all about smoke screens, deception, and lies...after the draft we apply a value to it all like star and smiley stickers the kindergarten teacher used to pass out. You either think player x is going to be good or think it's a wasted opportunity on getting someone else.

I understand summarizing a team's draft as good or bad...but applying a letter grade to players who haven't suited up since january sounds a little silly unless someone out there's Miss Cleo.

I give this draft 1 smiley sticker and 5 extra minutes at recess.
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Old 04-30-2013   #6
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong.
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Old 04-30-2013   #7
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

never mind....
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Old 04-30-2013   #8
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong.


Yes, it does and yes, they are.
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Old 04-30-2013   #9
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.

Charles Spencer may have been an awesome left tackle if he didn't get Ron Dayned.

Was that a bad pick because of a fluke injury?

You make your picks, and hope for the best. Putting letter grades on drafts is sort of silly but is great if you crave affirmation or get grumbly from what outsiders say.

For me, I really do like trying to figure out reasoning/fit but ultimately want these guys to have a clean start, removed from where they were drafted and how much or little money they make, and just assess them based on what they do as a Houston Texan.
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Old 04-30-2013   #10
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.
I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
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Old 05-01-2013   #11
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team?

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
you're right, draft grades, like most other grades in life, should be based on some quantifiable, measurable, numeric metric. As you hinted at, when they actually figure out how to quantify the level of improvement then they'd be useful.

Right now Draft grades remind me too much of the results of beauty contests; much too subjective and entirely dependent upon what "the judges" were expecting to see.

unfortunately, all we've got that really counts are wins and losses and those may or may not be significantly influenced by your draft.
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Old 05-01-2013   #12
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
You mean like this?



The proof is on the field. Assessments in the meantime, with letter grades and nonsense is just going, "Hey look, I know this stuff because I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night."

Draft grades are all over the place, there's no penalty if bloviators are wrong.
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Old 04-29-2013   #13
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Classic...



I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.
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Old 04-29-2013   #14
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

The problem with draft grades in general is that they treat the actual event...the real player selection meeting as though its results are wrong based on the months of seclation. the event is not wrong the specualtion about the event and what teams could have accomplished is incorrect. If player x is graded as a y round playr, but goes in z round, he is z rounder not a y rounder.
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Old 04-30-2013   #15
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Classic...



I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.
I figured at some point, somebody would make it an avatar because there are certain pet issues that annoy people irrationally.
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Old 04-30-2013   #16
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I knew it!
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Old 04-30-2013   #17
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Brisco_County View Post
Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."
No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
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Old 05-01-2013   #18
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"

Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan?

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.
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Old 05-01-2013   #19
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
That's exactly my point, which is why draft grades are valueless.


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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"
Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan?

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.
Draft grades exist to protect the perceived credibility of the draftniks when the teams contradict their sage advice. If they were interested in establishing real credibility, they would do follow-up grades one year later.
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Old 05-02-2013   #20
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."
yep, along with reports that Houston fans booed the JJ pick at many draft parties because they are ignorant dumba...errr...uninformed.

I usually avoid any and all draft talk because even the so-called "experts" seem to be shooting in the dark and talking out of their asses most of the time. I don't mean the average fan, but rather all the talking heads on tv and radio. But most of these guys act like they know it all.

Wait to see how these players do in the NFL before evaluating any of them. That's the only way to have a truly educated opinion about specific drafts.

But I get why folks do it. Off-season is long and boring and it's something to keep your head in football. I don't have a problem with it, but I don't put much merit in the opinions at the same time.
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