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Old 01-06-2013   #1
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Default ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

ReFo: Bengals @ Texans, AFC Wild Card
Khaled Elsayed | 2013/01/06


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...
Houston – Three Performances of Note

Secondary Steps Up

Faced with a tricky task of going one-on-one with A.J. Green, this game was always going to give us the chance to see what Johnathan Joseph (+1.0) was made of. Sure, he got beat deep a couple of times (with an overthrow by Andy Dalton saving him on one occasion) and he missed a tackle that led to a first down, but against a receiver like Green walking away giving up five of nine for 80 yards (with 45 of that coming on one play) isn’t too shabby.

Still, while that was the main event battle, it was in the less publicized battles that Houston dominated. Glover Quin (+2.2) was tasked with the role of ensuring Jermaine Gresham didn’t have any joy in this one, and he won that battle convincingly. Five times Gresham was thrown to in the coverage of Quin, with just one reception for 13 yards to show for it. Quin himself had two pass deflections, while the secondary combined for six in a display that they’ll need to replicate next week.

In Schaub do you Trust?

Playing this kind of football is good enough to beat a lot of teams, as was the case against the Bengals. However, with a New England offensive juggernaut hosting you, you need to be able to keep up with their high powered offense.

With Matt Schaub (-0.3) at the controls, do you think that’s possible?

The Texans’ quarterback looked tentative at best and was rarely prepared to challenge the Bengals’ secondary with anything meaningful. Only three times did he throw the ball over 10 yards in the air, and never did he go deep (over 20 yards). Instead, he largely relied on his receivers, backs and tight ends to do most of the work, with 49.6% of his yards coming after the catch.

That’s without mentioning the horrible pick-six he threw with 9:38 to go in the second quarter that brought the Bengals back to life in a game that appeared to be heading out of their reach quickly. His form down the stretch (that’s now three negatively graded games in a row) is a massive concern.

Living up to the Billing – Part 2

Just another day for the supreme talent that is J.J. Watt (+6.6), and the scary thing is that but for a pair of missed tackles on Andy Dalton, it could have been even better. As it is he walked away with a sack, a hit, four hurries and two batted passes in the passing game, along with a tackle for a loss and three other defensive stops in the run game. He was, as ever, dominant with his blend of speed and power being too much for whichever Bengals linemen drew the short straw to face him on a particular play. A performance fitting for a player crowned the PFF Defensive Player of the Year.

Game Notes

– Duane Brown was the only offensive linemen in this game not to give up a single sack, hit or hurry.

– The Texans missed twice as many (eight) tackles as the Bengals.

PFF Game Ball

It’s hard to look past J.J. Watt, who disrupted the running game and caused any number of problems for Andy Dalton.
read more: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...afc-wild-card/
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Old 01-06-2013   #2
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
ReFo: Bengals @ Texans, AFC Wild Card
Khaled Elsayed | 2013/01/06


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They struggled to get the Texans off the field, while their young playmakers on offense failed to connect when it mattered most. That was brought about by Houston getting back to doing what they do well — run the ball and put the quarterback under pressure.
read more: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...afc-wild-card/
That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"
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Old 01-06-2013   #3
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"
Agreed. I just wish Tate would suddenly come back to his effective style he had last year. If Tate could pound the ball like last year, it would be hard to beat the Texans.
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Old 01-06-2013   #4
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Agreed. I just wish Tate would suddenly come back to his effective style he had last year. If Tate could pound the ball like last year, it would be hard to beat the Texans.
I think Tate has really poor vision. When the holes were big enough to drive trucks through, he had no choice but to find them. This year? Not so much.

You'll notice that they don't run as much inside with Tate. It's almost all tosses and sweeps giving him no options of where to run.
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Old 01-06-2013   #5
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Originally Posted by noxiousdog View Post
I think Tate has really poor vision. When the holes were big enough to drive trucks through, he had no choice but to find them. This year? Not so much.

You'll notice that they don't run as much inside with Tate. It's almost all tosses and sweeps giving him no options of where to run.
I think Tate's been hurt all year. Even when they said he was healthy.... he wasn't & isn't.
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Old 01-06-2013   #6
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

If Tate's going to continue to be a non-factor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few touches going to Forsett.

Hard to get Foster out of the lineup, though.
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Old 01-06-2013   #7
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."

That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.

We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"

You can say it's a good sign, but once we start finishing in the RZ, we will then truly be back. Especially if we start causing defensive turnovers again.
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Old 01-06-2013   #8
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

The Texans’ quarterback looked tentative at best and was rarely prepared to challenge the Bengals’ secondary with anything meaningful. Only three times did he throw the ball over 10 yards in the air...

Pitiful.
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Old 01-06-2013   #9
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

This is a mid October 2012 piece from ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM that could explain why we can have a great RB, but still struggle to look like a winning team......or, for that matter, consistently win against higher competition, without having a passing game that is not reliable beyond 10 yards.

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Running to Create a 'Manageable' 3rd Down Is Self-Defeating

One of the common defenses of a run-heavy offense is that offenses need to make their third downs “manageable,” meaning short enough so that conversion is easier. The thinking goes that if an offense runs on either or both first and second down, it is relatively assured of shorter rather than longer distances on third down. At first look, this makes a lot of sense. After all, who wants to face third and long?

There are two problems with this argument. The first is that football is not a game of piling up first downs. The days of inching toward the goal line on 18-play drives are long gone if they ever existed at all. Football is, for the most part, a game of maximizing score differential, and the concept of Expected Points shows that NFL offenses are generally running too often on first and second down.

The second problem is that even if gaining a first down is the primary objective, running on first down is becoming a worse idea every year. The graph below shows that passing on first down leads to a conversion more often than running on first down. As usual, I limited the data to plays in ‘normal’ football situations, when the score is relatively close and time is not yet a factor at the end of either half.








Further graph analysis is available in the link posted above.
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Old 01-06-2013   #10
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

His graphs don't support either of his assertions.
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Old 01-07-2013   #11
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
This is a mid October 2012 piece from ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM that could explain why we can have a great RB, but still struggle to look like a winning team......or, for that matter, consistently win against higher competition, without having a passing game that is not reliable beyond 10 yards.
So in 2000 teams that ran the on 3rd down picked up the 1st down more than 60% of the time? I call BS on that data point.
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Old 01-07-2013   #12
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

Isn't the line at the end about Brown not being the only lineman not to give up a sack, hit or hurry a bit misleading? IIRC there were no sacks. It makes Brown look good (which he was) but sort of implies the other guys did not do so well. Factual but misleading.
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Old 01-07-2013   #13
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

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Isn't the line at the end about Brown not being the only lineman not to give up a sack, hit or hurry a bit misleading? IIRC there were no sacks...
Each is a black mark. No O-lineman on either side was "clean" other than Brown.

For all WC games, Brown graded higher than any other lineman.
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Old 01-07-2013   #14
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Default Re: ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston

More incredibly is the fact that the Texans also had 8 more pass attempts than the Pats on third down in the first half.

All and all, the Texans went with the pass a few more than the Pats in the first half.
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