Week to Week Scenarios

[Lurvinator11]

Over the next three weeks, I will be posting different scenarios based on the results of our games and other games. The overall goal is to get the Number One seed so we can guarantee home field advantage with every win in the playoffs.

Assuming we lose tomorrow, if we win next week against the Colts, we will clinch the division.

Here are some key AFC Matchups over the next 3 weeks.

Week 14
Houston vs New England

Week 15
Denver vs Baltiomore
Indianapolis vs Houston
San Francisco vs New England

Week 16
New York Giants vs Baltimore
Minnesota vs Houston
New England vs Jacksonville
Cleveland vs Denver
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

Week 17
Baltimore vs Cincinnati
Houston vs Indianapolis
Miami vs New England
Kansas City vs Denver

So here are two huge matchups that jump out to me. Denver vs Baltimore and San Fran vs New England. Assuming we lose to New England, if they lose to San Fran the following week, it would shake everything up. Here is how it would play out, we just need to win two more games, Indy and Minny at home, and we would get the Number one seed. However, if New England loses to San Fran, and Baltimore wins out, Baltimore could get the Number two seed, and New England getting the 3 seed. So, if New England wins their wild card match up, they would have to go to Baltimore, where they have already lost once this season.

As long as we take care of our business over the next three weeks, we could go 14-2, or 13-3.
Other than our own business, we will want to root for San Fran against New England, AND root for Baltimore to win out. Since they lost today, there is no way they can pass us, since we hold the head to head over them.

There is one other Scenario I need to mention. It is possible for us to not win the division. If we were to win tomorrow, but lose our next three, Indy would hold the tiebreaker over us, and they would then win the Division. Hopefully that doesn't happen.

With those matches and scenarios on notice, keep them in mind over the next three weeks. After every week, I will update the Scenarios, and see where we stand with the rest of the AFC.

[amazing80]

I need to get through MNF first before I can move on haha. I will address the schedule after our game, this is still a big focus for us, but I will say Baltimore losing today was pretty nice.

[Texabama]

The simplest scenario to get the top seed is win tomorrow and next week. Nothing else would matter.

[thunderkyss]

I just want to know how in the he77 did Munchak let Luck beat him after whup'n up the young'n for 3 qtrs.

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

I just want to know how in the he77 did Munchak let Luck beat him after whup'n up the young'n for 3 qtrs.

Because Luck is a "Special Player" and we all love him so much.

Signed,
All the talking heads on NFLN and ESPN

[coltfan123]

Originally Posted by Thorn

Because Luck is a "Special Player" and we all love him so much.

Signed,
All the talking heads on NFLN and ESPN

Lucks lucky..with enough luck he be lucky enough to knock texans to wild card...

[OzzO]

Too many scanerios. I think we need some magic numbers for the simple minded. I think its....

3: combo of Houston wins and / or NE loss to take HFA from them.
2: combo of Houston wins and / or Indy loss to take division.
2: combo of Houston wins and / or Den loss to take HFA from them.
1: combo of Houston wins and / or Bal loss to take HFA from them.

Right?

[Heath Shuler]

Originally Posted by Lurvinator11

Assuming we lose tomorrow,

hold the phone there chief, how about we let them play the game before we mark a L in the column

[Lurvinator11]

Originally Posted by Heath Shuler

hold the phone there chief, how about we let them play the game before we mark a L in the column

Just prepping for the worst.

Everyone knows what will happen if we win, I just want to address what happens if we lose.

[Norg]

we need to beat the pats and then sit back and hope the ravens can beat denver

but nope i think we need to beat the colts at home to pretty much treat wk 15 and 16 like pre season thoes damm colts won to many damm games they can acctually still win the divison .... : I

[ajohnson80]

I'd like to see the pats and broncos play. They always make a big deal about that matchup while we stay focused in the background.

[Lurvinator11]

Alright. So we lost last night. It was pretty bad. Pretty baaaaaad. But, don't worry! We are still in control of things, we will just need help in a couple of regions.

Next week, we can actually clinch our second division title, by beating the Colts. No strings attached, win and we're division champs, and I get to add another banner to my wall. Hopefully, it won't be the only banner I'm hanging up this year.

Now, we can also clinch a first round bye. How does that work? Well as long as we win, and Denver AND New England loses, then we will clinch a first round bye.

So, as long as we win out, we can get the Number one seed, but it wouldn't hurt for New England to lose to San Fran on Sunday night. That game, and the Denver vs Baltimore game will be very important.

I'd like to point out, that when New England has had a first round bye, they have made it to the Super Bowl 5 out of 6 times. This was mentioned last night. The only time they didn't make it with a bye, was when they lost to their division rivals, the Jets. We all know what a Division matchup is like, so I can't say I fault the Pats for losing that game.

This is all the more reason to hope that New England loses, and Baltimore can win out. I have said time and time again, I would love for the Ravens to be that Number 2 seed, ensuring that one team goes to them, and we could possibly meet up with them in the Conference Championship.

However, it also wouldn't hurt it Denver gets the Number two seed, and they face off with the Pats. Brady vs Manning, again. That would do away with at least one super team in the AFC.

But that's in the future. Let's just see how this week plays out!

Go Texans!

[JCTexan]

Originally Posted by Lurvinator11

Alright. So we lost last night. It was pretty bad. Pretty baaaaaad. But, don't worry! We are still in control of things, we will just need help in a couple of regions.

Next week, we can actually clinch our second division title, by beating the Colts. No strings attached, win and we're division champs, and I get to add another banner to my wall. Hopefully, it won't be the only banner I'm hanging up this year.

Now, we can also clinch a first round bye. How does that work? Well as long as we win, and Denver AND New England loses, then we will clinch a first round bye.

So, as long as we win out, we can get the Number one seed, but it wouldn't hurt for New England to lose to San Fran on Sunday night. That game, and the Denver vs Baltimore game will be very important.

I'd like to point out, that when New England has had a first round bye, they have made it to the Super Bowl 5 out of 6 times. This was mentioned last night. The only time they didn't make it with a bye, was when they lost to their division rivals, the Jets. We all know what a Division matchup is like, so I can't say I fault the Pats for losing that game.

This is all the more reason to hope that New England loses, and Baltimore can win out. I have said time and time again, I would love for the Ravens to be that Number 2 seed, ensuring that one team goes to them, and we could possibly meet up with them in the Conference Championship.

However, it also wouldn't hurt it Denver gets the Number two seed, and they face off with the Pats. Brady vs Manning, again. That would do away with at least one super team in the AFC.

But that's in the future. Let's just see how this week plays out!

Go Texans!

Why not root for them to be the #4 seed? That way if Houston gets the #1 seed they will play Baltimore in the divisional round while Denver & New England go at it...

[Lurvinator11]

Originally Posted by JCTexan

Why not root for them to be the #4 seed? That way if Houston gets the #1 seed they will play Baltimore in the divisional round while Denver & New England go at it...

I guess I'm just weary of playing Brady again. Home or away.

You know what would be really cool? If Denver actually got the #2 seed. That way we get Baltimore in the divisional round, and hopefully get Denver in the Championship game.

[Tailgate]

If 49ers can beat the Pats, then we only need to win 2 games to get #1. Let Brady and Manning duke it out. I dont care who we play if we make it to the AFC Champ game. Its a chance to get in.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

If 49ers can beat the Pats, then we only need to win 2 games to get #1. Let Brady and Manning duke it out. I dont care who we play if we make it to the AFC Champ game. Its a chance to get in.

San Francisco won't beat the Pats.

[Lurvinator11]

I haven't been posting much here lately, as I have been at home for the winter break.

Even after today's sour loss, we are still in the drivers seat for a #1 seed. Say what you want, and I know this loss was so bad that we are now questioning the team in general, but right now, all we can do is hope that we get back on track. Real quick, I want to point out two examples from previous years. In 2009, The Saints clinched HFA with a win to go 13-0. After that, they lost their last three, and many people had wondered if the Aints were back. They took that much needed bye week off, and then proceeded to march to the Super Bowl title. I bet Saints fans felt bad going in, but you never know what will happen. Another example, are last years champions. The Giants lost to the lowly Redskins, and many people thought that even if they made the Playoffs, they would be a first or second round exit. We all know how they responded. I can't explain why this team has faltered, and as a fan it is really scary to see it now. But don't lose hope, my fellow fans. We need to put everything on the line, because once the playoffs start, it is a whole new season, and anything can go.

On to the scenarios.

The two Wild Cards in the AFC are locked up.
#6 The Bengals
#5 The Colts

Now the lowest we can fall is to the #3 seed.
Here are the matches for the 4 Division winners in the AFC

Texans @ Colts
Chiefs @ Broncos
Dolphins @ Patriots
Ravens @ Bengals

Now with the playoff seed locked in for the Colts and Bengals, it would not surprise me at all if they rested their starters. Since they are going to be playing the following week, you don't want to suffer an injury at the hands of the Ravens or Texans. As for the Broncos and Patriots, both home games against divisional foes. Kansas is not good at all this year. They will most likely have the first pick overall in Aprils draft. The Dolphins on the other hand could play spoiler, but I do not see that happening. I expect wins from both teams. So where does that put us?

The Texans will clinch the #1 seed with a win, OR a loss by both Denver AND New England.
The Texans can also clinch a first round bye if Denver OR New England lose.

So even with a loss next week, the Texans could still get HFA. I doubt that would happen though. I just don't see Denver or New England losing. So we gotta take care of business the hard way, and do it on our own.

Now, assuming we lose, and the Broncos and Patriots win, we would then fall to the #3 seed. That is the furthest we can fall, since the best Baltimore can finish with is an 11-5 record. If we do lose, and the Patriots and Broncos win, that would set up a rematch of last years Wild Card weekend match with The Bengals. I know all of us, would much rather have a bye week going in.

Now, as for the other scenarios, If the Pats win, and the Broncos lose, The Pats will get a first round bye. Either way, if we win, I see either New England or Denver having the 2 and 3 seed.

Finally, it is possible for the Patriots to fall all the way to #4.

If the Texans, Broncos, and Ravens win, while the Patriots lose, the Patriots would fall to the #4 seed by virtue of tiebreaker with Baltimore.

This will be one of the more interesting weeks in history. So many teams need a win, and a lot is at stake. Like I said, it would not surprise me if the Colts sat their starters. Even if it is an ugly win, it still puts at home, and if you remember from earlier, that's all the Saints needed to win the Super Bowl.

Let's get a win this Sunday. First time in Indy!

[Norg]

scenario ... Beat indy after that all is gravy

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Lurvinator11

Even after today's sour loss, we are still in the drivers seat for a #1 seed. Say what you want, and I know this loss was so bad that we are now questioning the team in general, but right now, all we can do is hope that we get back on track. Real quick...

For me, & I'm sure others, it's not simply that we lost, but how we lost, again. I'm usually pretty optimistic when it comes to this team. As much as I say I don't like Schaub or Kubiak, I do believe they possess enough competence that what we saw yesterday would only happen rarely & against the best competition.

But we've seen it five times this year. Against GB (#10 defense), Tennessee (#25 defense), New England (#27 defense), Indianapolis (#26 defense), and Minnesota (#16 defense).

I also liked to believe that they know enough to do what it takes to get the win. Not as flashy as Belichick & Brady, but just as effective. Losing the last two out of three has caused serious doubt.

And giving up in both the Patriot & Viking game, without ever turning it on... more questions.

I know this team can play better than it has in the last 4 weeks, but have no idea why they aren't. 4 weeks in a row tells me they don't either.