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Old 11-26-2012   #1
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Default AFC Tie-breaker

So, listening to 610 this morning something was mentioned that confused me.

It was mentioned that if the Texans lose in a couple weeks to the Pats, the Texans lose the tie breakers they have already against BAL and DEN or something like that?? Basically they were saying those tie breakers we already own could be potentially blown with a loss to the Pats (perhaps something additionally has to happen to add to this to cause that?).

My question....is there any truth in that? All my years in watching football, I don't remember losing a head to head tie breaker to a team we beat by losing to another team???? Of course it's been years and years since any of that mattered for a Houston team so maybe I am forgetting something..
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Old 11-26-2012   #2
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by HTown2ATX View Post
So, listening to 610 this morning something was mentioned that confused me.

It was mentioned that if the Texans lose in a couple weeks to the Pats, the Texans lose the tie breakers they have already against BAL and DEN or something like that?? Basically they were saying those tie breakers we already own could be potentially blown with a loss to the Pats (perhaps something additionally has to happen to add to this to cause that?).

My question....is there any truth in that? All my years in watching football, I don't remember losing a head to head tie breaker to a team we beat by losing to another team???? Of course it's been years and years since any of that mattered for a Houston team so maybe I am forgetting something..
I'm betting you misheard. You can't lose a head-2-head tiebreaker, but in a 3 way tie, assuming the teams have beaten each other, that tiebreaker goes out the window.
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Old 11-26-2012   #3
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
I'm betting you misheard. You can't lose a head-2-head tiebreaker, but in a 3 way tie, assuming the teams have beaten each other, the tiebreaker goes out the window.
At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
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Old 11-26-2012   #4
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by HTown2ATX View Post
At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
Not the case with a loss only to NE. That can definitely happen assuming the Texans lose another game in addition to the Pats game and both Baltimore and New England win out. However, in order for the Patriots to win out they will have to beat us and San Francisco in consecutive weeks. Likewise, the Ravens would have to beat the Broncos, Giants, and Redskins.

I like our chances at the top seed overall.
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Old 11-26-2012   #5
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
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Old 11-26-2012   #6
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
Denver pretty much has a cakewalk to go. They could easily win out, but would likely lose the tiebreaker to us.

The split with New England could come down to who wins the game in two weeks, but they would likely need to go 5-0 to make that a possibility.

If the Texans can go 3-2 over the next 5 games, they have an excellent shot of getting the #1 seed.
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Old 11-26-2012   #7
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
Here are the AFC leaders remaining schedule:

New England: @ Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, Miami

Denver: Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

Baltimore: Pittsburgh, @ Washington, Denver, New York Giants, @ Cincinnati

Houston: @ Tennessee, @ New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I can see New England losing two, Denver losing one, Baltimore losing two, and Houston losing two. If I'm right, the only one that would concern us is New England.

At this point though, I wouldn't predict anything with certainty.
NE has the best chance to win out, IMO.

Denver is going to have a hard time beating the Bucs (Bucs are really good this year) with their Ravens and Browns games being excellent "trap games," IMO. So they could easily lose 2 maybe 3 games there.

Ravens? I can see them dropping any (and maybe ALL) of the games vs. Redskins, Giants, and avery hard road game against Bengals.

Houston, IMO, should win 3 of their last 5 games. I have us dropping the Patriots game and 1 of the 2 Colts games. Leaving us at 13-3. Goofy things can happen, though, so it's just as likely we bomb out and the Colts catch us and things get dicey for the AFCS title. This season looks like a sure thing, except for a pesky Colts team who didn't get the memo.
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Old 11-26-2012   #8
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.
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Old 11-26-2012   #9
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

I agree, especially with that closing game at Cincy with a possible playoff spot at stake for the Bengals. The Ravens will not win out. Hard to see the Patriots doing so, either with SF on their schedule.
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Old 11-26-2012   #10
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by AngryNateFTW View Post
The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.
While I see what you are saying, this is the same argument people point out about the Texans scraping by a horrible Jags team.....

All I'm saying by that is I wouldn't try to predict their outcome based on that game otherwise that applies to Houston as well wouldn't it?
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Old 11-26-2012   #11
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by AngryNateFTW View Post
The Ravens aren't going to finish 13-3. They escaped a really bad/mediocre Chargers team.
the Texans escaped a really bad/mediocore Jaguars team
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Old 11-27-2012   #12
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

its really simple

Beat Tenn and Beat NE then the next week just sit back and watch if NE losses to the 49ers they we pretty much locked #1 seed

and can pretty much lose the next 3 games if we wanted 2 ...butttt doing tnat will most certinly allow INdy to make the playoffs LOL
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Old 11-26-2012   #13
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Cool Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by HTown2ATX View Post
At first I was thinking I misheard as well but I perked up and listened to the rest of the conversation and while I don't remember the details, they definitely laid out some convoluted explanation of how that could potentially lose us the tie breakers and #1 seed.
The 3 way tie breaker can sometimes be super convoluted and not common-sensical.

Probably what they were talking about.
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Old 11-26-2012   #14
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

I suspect this is what they were talking about...there is a plausible scenario where the Texans would lose the #1 overall seed AND a first round bye.

We lose to NE and the Colts in week 17 to finish 13-3. Baltimore wins out and finishes 14-2. New England wins out and finishes the season 13-3.

The Pats get that tiebreaker with us by virtue of their head-to-head win.

#1 seed Baltimore
#2 seed NE
#3 seed Houston hosting a wild card game.....
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Old 11-26-2012   #15
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

Eh, talking heads trying to take up radio silence.

If they are talking about this kind of crap, they wasting airtime.
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Old 11-26-2012   #16
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by Hagar View Post
Eh, talking heads trying to take up radio silence.

If they are talking about this kind of crap, they wasting airtime.
This is what I am hoping but checking to see if I am missing something here...
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Old 11-26-2012   #17
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

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Originally Posted by HTown2ATX View Post
This is what I am hoping but checking to see if I am missing something here...
Like Stemp already pointed out-the only way the Head to Head doesn't count it in the case of a three way tie. I'm betting that is what they were looking at-more than one team (including the Texans) finishing 13-3.
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Old 11-26-2012   #18
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
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Old 11-26-2012   #19
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelm View Post
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
Yeah I must have misheard them because I know if we all finish say 13-3 then then it gets dicey but I didn't realize each team was 1-1 in this scenario either. I believe you are correct that the AFC record comes in to play after that which as of now our only loss was NFC which I am thankful for so obviously if the Pats beat us that tarnishes that.

Clearly I missed them probably mentioning the 1-1 issue if finishing at 13-3 which is what confused me and made me think they were saying something totally different.

Thx for the clarification.
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Old 11-26-2012   #20
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Default Re: AFC Tie-breaker

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelm View Post
An example of what they were saying is this scenario:

Texans, Ravens, and Patriots all finish the season 13-3.

In the regular season:
Texans beat Ravens
Ravens beat Patriots
Patriots beat Texans


In this scenario, each team is 1-1 against the teams with the tied overall records, so the head to head tie breaker is thrown out, and next next tie breaker is used, which I believe is record against the AFC conference.
If we lose to New England, we would go to 9-1 in the conference (if we beat Tennessee). New England & Baltimore could possibly be 9-1 at that time as well. So it's possible for all three teams to finish 11-1 in the conference.

FYI, Denver is also sitting there with 3 loses. They could possibly end the season 13-3 as well. They have Baltimore on their schedule, a win against Baltimore would assure Baltimore doesn't finish better than 13-3, then Baltimore would also have another loss in the conference meaning they won't finish better than 10-2, so we need to root for Denver to beat Baltimore, but lose somewhere else (so there is no 13-3 three-way tie).
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