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Old 11-26-2012   #1
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Default P.King on Watt & Miller

The Deep End

Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions:

Playing Time: Watt has played 89 percent of Houston's defensive snaps and Miller 90 percent for Denver. Watt has been so dominant that teams have had to start game-planning just to stop him. So the Texans have moved him from his favored position on the left. In 2011 he was on the left 85 percent of his snaps, but it's 74 percent this year, as the Texans have shifted Watt around to counter blocking schemes. Miller has actually spent more time on his preferred left side (72 percent, up from 67 percent last year) because his position and style of play means he is far harder to scheme against. EDGE: Even.

Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football. In productivity terms that gives Watt a stop on 18 percent of running downs; the next best is Justin Smith at 12 percent. Miller can't match those pure numbers (he's 12th in the same stat against outside linebackers) but that's not his game. His position on the field distorts those figures. It's much fairer to say when he makes a play in run defense, it's usually a big one; the average gain on his 24 tackles in run defense? Minus-1 yard. EDGE: Watt.

Pass Rush: Miller is the most devastating pass rusher at any position in the NFL. There is no one on offense who can consistently match up to him; offensive linemen are not quick enough to counter his acceleration. The 49ers' brilliant outside 'backer, Aldon Smith, has 43 quarterback disruptions this year on 292 pass rushes. Miller has 61 on 297, 41 percent more on nearly the same number of attempts. Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes). They come a close second in productivity terms to the Bengals' Geno Atkins, who has 40 QB disruptions on 300 pass rush snaps. EDGE: Miller

Coverage: Well, Watt doesn't cover, so this is an odd stat for him (he's dropped in coverage only 14 times), but there has to be a way to count his passes swatted away. He has tipped 13 passes at the line of scrimmage, more than twice as many as the next player. Since 2008, the most we'd had in a full season before this was in 2009, when Johnny Jolly batted down 10. Watt is probably redefining the way in which linemen will be taught to play. Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed. Having said that, he's only dropped in coverage on 92 plays so far. EDGE: Watt.

In Summary: Many players on defense are having great years, but no one is as far ahead of the competition as J.J. Watt and Von Miller. Just as Darrelle Revis did in the early part of 2011, they are redefining what's achievable at their positions. Who's better? Flip a coin. Good thing there are five games left for each, so one can win the award they both now deserve.

Full article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...-12/index.html
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Old 11-26-2012   #2
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

If people think Von Miller is in a tie with Watt, then those people are crazy.

JJ Watt has astronomical numbers at a position that shouldn't have those levels of numbers. End of story.
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Old 11-26-2012   #3
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by GP View Post
If people think Von Miller is in a tie with Watt, then those people are crazy.

JJ Watt has astronomical numbers at a position that shouldn't have those levels of numbers. End of story.
I think they are saying the same is true for Von Miller at his position. I think yesterday was an off game for Miller stat-wise, but he commands attention on defense. He affects the game.

I would imagine the vote here (on this board) will be split, being Von Miller is sort-of a hometown boy & Watt plays for the Texans I doubt too many people will have an issue if either were to win the MVP (which won't happen).

I do believe there should be a slight edge to Watt, but I don't know if I'm being a littel biased. Von Miller is a bad-ass.
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Old 11-26-2012   #4
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

I would take Aldon Smith over Von Miller & Watt over both.
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Old 11-26-2012   #5
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
I would take Aldon Smith over Von Miller & Watt over both.
So basically your entire assesment of defensive linemen is solely based on sacks (16.5 v. 14.5 which includes the mysterious sack they took away from Watt v. Miami)? The reason I ask is Watt leads Smith in almost every other defensive catagories.

Tackles:
Watt 54 (44 solo) - Smith 48 (40 solo)

Passes defended:
Watt 13 - Smith 0
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Old 11-26-2012   #6
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.
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Old 11-26-2012   #7
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.
No, put Miller as OLB in our 3-4 and watch him play!
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Old 11-26-2012   #8
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by EllisUnit View Post
The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.
What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:

Quote:
Miller has 61 on 297, .... Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes)
Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.
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Old 11-26-2012   #9
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

Whatever happens will happen.

But as a Texans fan, how great is that in his sophomore year, JJ Watt is in the discussion of best defensive player in the league?

98 overall in Madden too now...that should be the tiebreaker for votes.

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Old 11-26-2012   #10
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game.
I agree with your post except for the bold. Even adjusting to bring in hits and pressures the stats can't be adjusted for performance in comparison to the position played. They are both fantastic. I would have called that one even with an underlying urge to say Watt because what he is doing for his position is more exceptional.
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Old 11-26-2012   #11
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:



Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.
Miller may be the better pass rusher but that's not what the award is given for (Though some might argue that point.). It's for the best defensive player for a given year. And, if you look at all areas (sacks, hurries, QB pressures, tipped passes or PDF, TFL's, total tackles, etc...), I think you'll find JJ is the best all around defensive player in the NFL this season hands down.
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Old 11-26-2012   #12
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:



Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.
No issue just saying millers position is designed to get more sacks/rush the passer and watts position is not. That's all I'm saying
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Old 11-26-2012   #13
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watt is far and away leading run stopping categories. he's been first or second in sacks all season. AND he's already broken the record for passes defensed by a lineman. what's the discussion again? he isnt as good a pass rusher as the free blitzer who has fewer sacks?
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Old 11-26-2012   #14
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No issue just saying millers position is designed to get more sacks/rush the passer and watts position is not. That's all I'm saying
I'd like to see VM have to engage an OL on every single snap. No outside angle as his fellow DL dig into that trench fortification...every snap.

Yeah, Watt is a thick boneless ribeye over mesquite smoke. Miller's the sirloin on a griddle. No shame in a sirloin, but the marbling in that ribeye??? Mmmmm...good.
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Old 11-26-2012   #15
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedy View Post
Which one has more sacks again? Not saying Miller isn't a beast, but the pass rush specialist is a half a sack behind the guy with the handicap of not playing a traditional pass rush position.

J.J. Watt is changing the game. He is likely redefining how linemen play this game in the future. That's Babe Ruth-ish, Wilt Chamberlain-ish.
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.

Quote:
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I'd like to see VM have to engage an OL on every single snap. No outside angle as his fellow DL dig into that trench fortification...every snap.

Yeah, Watt is a thick boneless ribeye over mesquite smoke. Miller's the sirloin on a griddle. No shame in a sirloin, but the marbling in that ribeye??? Mmmmm...good.
Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.
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Old 11-26-2012   #16
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.



Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.
I wonder how many sacks JJ would have if they doubled him with a tackle and TE or RB. Huge difference getting doubled up by a G/C and a T/TE or T/RB.
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Old 11-26-2012   #17
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.



Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.
Dummervile was the one who got credited for one sack and 3 QB hits.

Miller had none.
All he had was 3 assists.
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Old 11-26-2012   #18
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Dummervile was the one who got credited for one sack and 3 QB hits.

Miller had none.
All he had was 3 assists.
Odd, I must have created this from my imagination...





Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?
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Old 11-26-2012   #19
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Odd, I must have created this from my imagination...





Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?
Read my post above.
It was Foster that missed the cut block.
No lineman was on him on that play.
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Old 11-26-2012   #20
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Default Re: P.King on Watt & Miller

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?
PFF's line for Miller vs. Texans

Penalty - 1, QBHits - 1, QBHurries - 3, Tackles(ex-sacks) - 2, Stops* - 2.
*Stop = solo tackle (including sacks) that constitute an offensive failure
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