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Old 10-24-2012   #1
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Default Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Football Ousiders: Broncos are the best in the AFC
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Apparently, team records are overrated. Just ask FootballOutsiders.com.
The well-known site released their team efficiency ratings this week and the Denver Broncos were listed as the top team in the AFC, fifth-overall in the NFL.
Surprisingly, the Broncos beat out the 5-1 Houston Texans and 5-2 Baltimore Ravens for top honors in the AFC. Perhaps even more intriguing is that another team, the New England Patriots, also ranked ahead of both the Texans and the Ravens...
Why .500 Broncos are AFC's best--ESPN Insider
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If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.

The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team...
Football Outsiders--Week 7 DVOA Ratings -- Texans 7th Best Team in NFL
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Old 10-24-2012   #2
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
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Old 10-24-2012   #3
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
And it didn't get any better last week. The Ravens - averaged - 36 yards per kickoff return. They had more yardage returning kicks than total offense.

Just horrible.
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Old 10-24-2012   #4
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Well I only have one stat for these stat geeks. We beat the team they're saying is better than us in their stadium. Sometimes these guys just outsmart themselves. It also took a miraculous comeback for them to win their last game. Don't get me wrong I think Denver will be an improved team as the season goes on, but they aren't there yet.

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Old 10-24-2012   #5
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Well I only have one stat for these stat geeks. We beat the team they're saying is better than us in their stadium. Sometimes these guys just outsmart themselves. It also took a miraculous comeback for them to win their last game. Don't get me wrong I think Denver will be an improved team as the season goes on, but they aren't there yet.
The Colts beat the Packers.

Quick, who's the better team?
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Old 10-24-2012   #6
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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The Colts beat the Packers.

Quick, who's the better team?
Yeah, and the Colts played well for a quarter and a half that game. We basically dominated the Broncos at their house for 3 plus quarters. I'm not saying that the head to head matchup means everything, but anyone who watched those two games wouldn't make that comparison. One team won in relatively convincing fashion and other team won in an improbably comeback. If those 2 teams played 10 more times the Colts would maybe win one of them. I doubt anyone could say with a straight face that we would just win one out of 10 against the Broncos.
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Old 10-24-2012   #7
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
It's going to cost us a game or two this season. There has to be an expendable player or two who we can release to sign a guy who only kicks on kickoffs. The Cowboys did it a few years ago. For most teams, it would be a waste of a roster spot. But we're that bad on kickoffs.
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Old 10-24-2012   #8
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Fortunately, the NFL has a playoff system to determine champions, and not some convoluted BCS crap or rankings where opinions mean anything.

I have no doubt that the Texans are better than the Broncos, including the win at Denver. So they can keep their editorial rankings and I'll stick with reality.
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Old 10-24-2012   #9
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Denver is the best team in the AFC. They have a 3-3 record, but their 3 losses have come to great teams including Houston, Atlanta, and New England. Houston and New England are rated below them.

Yeah, makes perfect sense

I can agree with giving teams with tough schedules a boost, but you can't knock down the Texans for playing the 3-3 Broncos and bump up the Broncos for playing the 6-1 Texans and say "Broncos are better"

Its circular in nature and ridiculous
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Old 10-24-2012   #10
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Denver has also lost 15 of 19 fumbles this season
How does this not reflect on the Broncos? Oh, "unlucky" factors into the equation. How freakin' moronic.
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Old 10-27-2012   #11
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Fortunately, the NFL has a playoff system to determine champions, and not some convoluted BCS crap or rankings where opinions mean anything.

I have no doubt that the Texans are better than the Broncos, including the win at Denver. So they can keep their editorial rankings and I'll stick with reality.
I hope that Denver and New England keep winning because I'd them to be in the Playoffs.
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Old 10-28-2012   #12
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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I hope that Denver and New England keep winning because I'd them to be in the Playoffs.
I'd rather see Miami & Buffalo, maybe even Jacksonville (screw up their draft & steam roll them in the play-offs).
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Old 10-24-2012   #13
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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It's going to cost us a game or two this season. There has to be an expendable player or two who we can release to sign a guy who only kicks on kickoffs. The Cowboys did it a few years ago. For most teams, it would be a waste of a roster spot. But we're that bad on kickoffs.
I have a feeling it will be the Viking game... Percy Harvin is giving me nightmares. Our ST has to step up before we play them
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Old 10-24-2012   #14
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
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Old 10-24-2012   #15
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
Excellent take. I think it is also important to point out, at least in my opinion, that Foster turned the corner against the Ravens. He looked more like the Foster I'm used to seeing, and he has been improving over the course of the season (GB egg aside). I'm excited to see it all culminate into a football powerhouse by the end of the season. Works out pretty well that we have a favorable schedule, all things considered.
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Old 10-24-2012   #16
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I think I understand why they're considered "Outsiders" now over there at footballoutsiders.com

It's really not that big a mystery.
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Old 10-24-2012   #17
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

per their rankings ... #9 on offense, #3 on defense, and #31 on special teams. seems about right to me there. without special teams included we're the #3 team behind green bay and san francisco.
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Old 10-24-2012   #18
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Excellent take. I think it is also important to point out, at least in my opinion, that Foster turned the corner against the Ravens. He looked more like the Foster I'm used to seeing, and he has been improving over the course of the season (GB egg aside). I'm excited to see it all culminate into a football powerhouse by the end of the season. Works out pretty well that we have a favorable schedule, all things considered.
There were a few other good things on the OL as well. Brown is looking to be himself again & I saw flashes of 2010 Wade Smith. After the bye, I'm sure Kubiak is going to have that OL cadilacing (I'm sure that's a word).

& for some reason, I think we're about to see Matt blossom into an elite QB. I don't know why, but I think he's going to average 3+ TDs a game from here on out.
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Old 10-24-2012   #19
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

I don't know why anybody cares about this junk. Win football games. That's it!
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Old 10-24-2012   #20
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Default Re: Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I think there is more to it than that. Our run game isn't as efficient or dominating like we want, or like we've grown accustomed to. We all know it, hence the vegan comments even though Tate has also been less effective.

The passing game has taken a hit as well. Numbers may be as favorable as in the past, but you're fooling yourself if you don't believe Andre is less effective than he has been.

& Sunday night was the first time this defense dominated as a team.

But the good thing about it is that the best team doesn't always win the super bowl much less win it & if we're 6-1 & no playing our best football yet this is going to be a helluva ride.

We're already seeing the defense improve that may have been Connor's best game to date but it didn't come out of nowhere as he was showing improvement the weeks before. Wade knows what he's got now & appears to b turning it up.

Same thing s happening on the offensive side of the ball, Kubiak is adjusting to what he's got.

Come December I think we'll see the best team this city has ever known.
We've all seen our offense be very inconsistent across the board. The run game looks fine, then the run game sputters. The passing game looks great and then it sputters. We haven't gotten a consistently good game from beginning to end yet this season. This has been especially true of the run game where Arian and Ben were getting an anemic YPC up until last week.

The problem is the line. The problem is the inconsistency on the right side of that line. Until it gels, this is what we're going to get.

We've been very, very lucky because our defense has done a great job at creating turnovers. This has given us some short fields and our offense has taken advantage which has turned into some blowouts.

BUT. Our defense has an achilles heel. Our defense is best against the pass. If a team decides it's going to stick to the run and just pound the rock, they're going to gain a lot of yards (like the Titans finally did.) If we're in a close game against a running team, our defense is going to get shellacked.

The way our defense is good against the pass is very telling, though. We're pretty good at getting pressure and forcing bad throws. This makes the secondary look like monsters but it's really disguising a weakness. Against a great QB who doesn't get rattled and can make good throws under pressure (like Rodgers), we get eaten alive unless our offense can pick up the slack.

The fact that our offense has been able to ground and pound late in most games has kept our defense off the field and helped them look even better.

We are a very good team. But barring injury, our best football is ahead of us because our offense should improve as the season goes on and that should make the entire team look even better.
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