Compensatory picks

[DerekLee1]

Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

[Doppelganger]

Originally Posted by DerekLee1

Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

That's not the way Compensatory picks work. Compensatory picks are awarded the year after based on a complex, secret formula. From what I have been able to gather these are some of the factors:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

For example. We lost Dunta Robinson in 2010 but signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers. DR was a true FA lost and Smith/Rackers were true FAs signed. Smith cancelled out DR and Rackers was a +1 for Htown.

Htown did not get a compensatory pick for DR becuase their value was +1. In order to get any pick of any kind, they would have needed to lose 2 additional FAs. Since that did not happen, Htown received zilch.

But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Doppelganger

But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

There is a separate category for the type of pick the Texans got in 2011, it's called "supplemental compensatory picks". That's the type of comp pick we received. Any picks awarded for lost players are simply "compensatory picks."

[DerekLee1]

If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracke...-round-input:3

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by DerekLee1

If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracke...-round-input:3

as Doppelganger eluded to, it's not as simple as that. Nobody really knows the formula. There was a guy on KFFL that got pretty damn close every year though.

[keyser]

Well, Mario is about as certain as you can get to a 3rd round compensatory pick, assuming the Texans don't blow it by signing someone that would knock out the pick. The Texans' FO needs to keep this in mind for any free agents signed this year. I'd hate to see some case where they sign some low-level FA who they don't need badly, and that person effectively costs them a 3rd round pick.

For our numbers, if we look at the 16 players listed as FAs on the Texans' website, there are only 4 that I would think are pretty certain to make the cut as far as counting toward compensatory picks (if they leave): Brisiel, Dreessen, Myers, and Williams. Some others very well might also, but the FO has to be careful about how many higher-priced people they sign. They could easily turn around and lose some good compensatory picks if they're not careful. For example that third-string QB they might look to sign for insurance would get a lot more expensive if he also costs a mid-round pick.

Back to Doppleganger's original post, I think there is one other provision where if you have the same number of people signed as lost, you can still get a compensatory pick if the value of those lost is significantly greater than those signed. If I remember, in this case, it's a much later round pick. For us, that could mean that even if we sign the same number of FAs that we lose, we could still get a 7th or 6th for Mario, which would still stink.

Here's the blog of they guy who used to do the compensatory pick analysis. He didn't do them last year, but if you look at his archives, I think he's got the details of the formula worked out as much as anyone publicly as been able to figure them out.

Oh, and one other point - I'm pretty sure that compensatory picks can't be traded. Not sure if that's what DerekLee1 meant (or if you meant other trades that can be made since we do have compensatories).

[gtexan02]

If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

[Runner]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

Not that we'll get a darn thing, but they're starting to leak out and should all be announced by days end

Steelers get 3 7th rounders
Packers get 2 4th rounders and 2 7's

Who did they lose that equated to those picks?

Won't these continue to change when acquisitions are made as free agency continues?

[HOU-TEX]

Originally Posted by Runner

Who did they lose that equated to those picks?

Won't these continue to change when acquisitions are made as free agency continues?

These Comp picks are from last years FA period. Comp picks for this FA period will be handed out next year.

[Runner]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

These Comp picks are from last years FA period. Comp picks for this FA period will be handed out next year.

Duh. I didn't make that assumption though it should have been clear. I guess I'll go poke around and see who they lost/gained past year.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by Runner

Duh. I didn't make that assumption though it should have been clear. I guess I'll go poke around and see who they lost/gained past year.

From last off-season:

Green Bay has bid farewell to, in order of importance, former starters Cullen Jenkins, Daryn Colledge, Atari Bigby, Nick Barnett, Brandon Jackson, Mark Tauscher and Brady Poppinga. Also gone are several players who filled lesser roles.

So far, just Mason Crosby, John Kuhn and James Jones have re-signed. All are important players, but not as important as the first two Packers lost.

LINK

I'm reading that the Steelers are likely to only get one 7th Round pick LINK and their 2011 UFA losses were Matt Spaeth (TE), Nick Eason (DT), and Keyaron Fox (LB).

[Texan_Bill]

3m Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
Also, compensatory formula weighs your FA losses vs gains. Cut guys like Manning, Winston don't factor in

3m Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
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Compensatory picks for guys like Mario Williams and Cortland Finnegan come in 2013.

Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
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FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details #Texans get no compensatory draft picks.

From Twitter

[Playoffs]

The following 2012 compensatory draft picks have been determined by the NFL Management Council:

ROUND CHOICE/ROUND OVERALL SELECTION TEAM
3
33-95 Oakland
4
33-128 Minnesota
34-129 Oakland
35-130 Baltimore
36-131 New York Giants
37-132 Green Bay
38-133 Green Bay
39-134 Minnesota
40-135 Dallas
5
33-168 Oakland
34-169 Baltimore
35-170 Indianapolis
6
33-202 New York Jets
34-203 New York Jets
35-204 Cleveland
36-205 Cleveland
37-206 Indianapolis
38-207 Carolina
7
33-240 Pittsburgh
34-241 Green Bay
35-242 New York Jets
36-243 Green Bay
37-244 New York Jets
38-245 Cleveland
39-246 Pittsburgh
40-247 Cleveland
41-248 Pittsburgh
42-249 Atlanta
43-250 San Diego
44-251 Buffalo
45-252 St. Louis
46-253 Indianapolis

http://www.cbssports.com/general/blo...the-2012-draft

[roooshi]

ooops....deleted.

[ArlingtonTexan]

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com...h-houston.html

Looks like a veteran minimium signing therefore not counting against the number.

[ArlingtonTexan]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/s...an-pay-off-big

One of the problems with the compensatory pick system cited above is that so many winning teams are rewarded with additional extra picks. But, as a few general managers noted, perennial winning teams often aren't as involved in free agency, sustain a net "loss," and so merit the extra choices. Of the 15 franchises awarded compensatory picks for 2012, six had winning records in 2011, five had losing marks, and four finished at .500 ...

[Lucky]

With Neil Rackers signing with the Redskins, the Texans may have a net 5 in lost free agents this offseason. I said may, because the contract value has yet to be released, and Rackers has yet to make the team. A team may receive a maximum of 4 compensatory picks in a given draft. So the team might be able to sign a free agent for more than the minimum and still get the maximum number of compensatory selections.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Lucky

With Neil Rackers signing with the Redskins, the Texans may have a net 5 in lost free agents this offseason. I said may, because the contract value has yet to be released, and Rackers has yet to make the team. A team may receive a maximum of 4 compensatory picks in a given draft. So the team might be able to sign a free agent for more than the minimum and still get the maximum number of compensatory selections.

If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.

[Señor Stan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.

I was thinking the same thing...kinda good value considering we are going to have the last pick in every round next year.

[disaacks3]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.

I like the way you think. Rick, get this man in the war room!