2012 Hurricane Season

[brakos82]

Once again hurricane season is nearly upon us (starts June 1), and the tropical Atlantic waters are looking favorable for another active season. After last year's 19 named systems, we currently expect a less active overall season across the basin. However, the proverbial "lid to the popcorn popper", the Bermuda High that normally sits over the mid-latitude Atlantic during the summer and early fall, is expected to be in place this season, so storms are expected to be pointed farther south, towards the Caribbean, GOMEX, and southeast coastlines. Neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist in the Pacific basin through this season, leading to a more active Atlantic season than average.

Pre-season storm predictions are consistent across the board, with expectations of an active season. 15-17 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, with 5 possibly becoming major.

Predictions from Colorado State University:
- 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
- 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
- 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
- 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


May 2 SST anomalies showing warmer than average waters over the tropical Atlantic.



Current wide view of the Atlantic Basin.

[Dutchrudder]

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin'

Looks like it time to start stocking up on the extra water and canned goods and stuff. The only thing worse than trying to ride out a hurricane is being in a grocery store right before it hits.

[BeerTastesLikeVictory]

Originally Posted by Thorn

"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin'

I wouldn't worry about hurricane Vince. The meteorologists might hype it up to be the next Katrina, but in the end it will just fizzle out before it hits land.

[badboy]

What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

[Thorn]

Originally Posted by badboy

What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

Mother Nature knows no odds. She does as she pleases.

[CretorFrigg]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

Jose, really dude? lol

[GlassHalfFull]

Originally Posted by brakos82

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia - close
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean -my son's name
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

[Señor Stan]

Originally Posted by GlassHalfFull

Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

Franklin...my middle name. Yeah, yeah, I know...it's a family name. I got lucky. There's a Ralph, Delbert and a Grover that could have been in play there.

[brakos82]

The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

[Showtime100]

Originally Posted by brakos82

The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

Maybe they'll call it TS El Caballo. All it will do is twirl around and not hit a damned thing.

[TexanSam]

Gert? What kind of name is that?

[Showtime100]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

Gert? What kind of name is that?

LOL! It's a German name, maybe French too, can't remember. I think it was common in the 19th century. Ask Thorn or JB, they were there.

I can already see the signs..."Gert TFO!!!

[TexanSam]

Something to keep an eye on.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06...days-well-see/

Those who watch the tropics closely have been pinging me to ask about a possible hurricane striking the coast in about 10 to 12 days time.

That’s because one of the major global forecast models, the GFS, has been advertising this possibility for a couple of days. The latest forecast run, for example, brings a rather large system to the Texas coast on June 23.

I’m generally skeptical about such strong storms this early in the season, and regard models after seven to 10 days to have very little basis in reality. But what about this storm?

For some insight I turned to Chris Hebert, a tropics expert at ImpactWeather. Here are his thoughts:

I’d take that with a grain of salt. For the past week, the GFS, along with the European and Canadian models, has been hinting at possible tropical development in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf of Mexico between June 17 and 22.

The long-range GFS has also been predicting the movement of an MJO pulse into the East Pacific by next weekend. The linked map indicates increased lifting resulting in increased thunderstorm activity into the NW Caribbean by next weekend. The Wheeler diagram also indicates a moderate MJO in the longer range:

The bottom line is that all available model guidance has been at least hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico between next Sunday through next Friday. Currently, thunderstorm activity in the region remains minimal. There are no disturbances to focus on.

However, the models actually did predict “something” developing either in the western Caribbean or off the East U.S. Coast about 10-14 days before Beryl developed. They obviously are picking up on something, so I think that the best course of action is to keep an eye on the western Caribbean over the next week to see if there is any increase in thunderstorm activity. If thunderstorms do blossom in the region, then there might be some chance of development.

[Cjeremy635]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

Something to keep an eye on.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06...days-well-see/

[Thorn]

Shouldn't we have a new thread for 2012, or change the date in this threads title?

In any case, I've already been squirrling away my hurricane supplys for this year. I've got one week of non-perishable food in the cabinet and 8 cases of water. I still need to check my flashlights and batteries, and the first aid kit. And the portable radio.

[Thorn]

And it begins for 2012........

[Heath Shuler]

I guess we are not doing a new one for 2012

[PapaL]

Papa L checking in from DC. High winds, lots of rain, some flooding. Our spirits are high and my son and I are safe. Can't really complain.

Big shout out to my brother from another mother Brakos82 for checking in on us. Much obliged sir.

[Hagar]

Nice little powerline meltdown


Hurricane Sandy causes power lines fire in Queens, NYC