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Old 06-16-2008   #1
TheRealJoker
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Default Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

This is in Total Defense, you can also throw in ppg and takeaways but mainly just the overall defensive rank. Now that we've signed Colvin I think we're through with notable FA signings this offseason.

Colvin brings us a pass rushing presence opposite Mario which was the most glaring hole left that needed to be filled after the draft. He has some negative things about him however, he has played mainly LB since he's been in the NFL whereas the Texans will most likely have him play DE in passing situations. But the biggest negative is HEALTH. The Texans do not have good luck when it comes to players staying healthy but if that changes this season we are competing for the playoffs.

On defense we added:

Colvin (pass rusher), Reeves (projected to be a good fit for the system), Molden (Fred Bennet clone), Adibi (Coverage LB), and Okam (run stuffer).

Its easier to list the players we DONT expect to improve as starters given the youth and experience of our defense. Off the top of my head the only players I dont expect to make notable improvement with added experience from last year are Will Demps (he's an overachiever type who doesn't have a high ceiling imo), Dunta Robinson (injury main reason), Anthony Weaver (not a fit for our system), and Morlon Greenwood (what you see is what you get).

Other than those 4 I expect every position to be upgraded by the natural progression young players are expected to make in this league with experience. Just like Mario did from year 1 to year 2 I expect Amobi to make similar strides. We have other young players like Bennett and Diles who I feel will make progress, Bennett because of experience and Diles because of opportunity and the fact that even if he's average he's still an upgrade over what we had last season at SAM.

I now save the best for last in my analysis of the defense:

We have 2 legitimate All Pros on defense in DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams who I fully expect to improve with yet another year in the NFL and with added talent around them. This is the year these two players will be mentioned in discussions about the best players by their position.

MY RANKING:

The Texans total defensive ranking is 9th.

I think its a realistic mark, given the improved offense and the defensive upgrades mentioned I believe we can be a top 10 defense. If the offense gives the defense time to breathe by moving the chains and not turning the ball over along with the upgrades then I think this is the year the Texans defense is top 10 in the league.

I am hoping we are # 1 85 Bears, 00 Ravens, and 02 Bucs esque though!!!
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Old 06-16-2008   #2
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

When I saw this thread, I was thinking 9th as well.
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Old 06-16-2008   #3
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

13th
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Old 06-16-2008   #4
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

Not to be a downer, but while I'm glad to see us accumulating better chess pieces, we still have the same old dude - R.Smith - sitting at the board moving them around.

Until he proves to be a "chessmaster", I'm not placing any bets.
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Old 06-16-2008   #5
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

How good our defensive stats are is directly proportional to how good our running game is. See Jacksonville.
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Old 06-16-2008   #6
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

We'll be an above average defense who is susceptible to the pass. I think we're going to see a lot of slants run on us this year. 3 wr sets are going to give us severe problems. When we play teams with young QB's however, and those that struggle to protect the QB, we will see a glimpse into the future.

Mike
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Old 06-16-2008   #7
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
We'll be an above average defense who is susceptible to the pass. I think we're going to see a lot of slants run on us this year. 3 wr sets are going to give us severe problems. When we play teams with young QB's however, and those that struggle to protect the QB, we will see a glimpse into the future.

Mike
I do think you maybe correct about the method the texans are attacked but the result will depend some on who we play and how they play . If Adibi is going to be the choice for a lb spot we will cover a lot better than you purpose especially if you put bentley on the opposite side . If we have molden as a nickel corner and bennett with reese we could be good there to , the only downer are the safety players . The expectations of a good to great defense if they can stay healthy are reasonable but a bunch depends on the offense getting it going and not having the defense play the whole game all year . I am going with a fifth place finish .
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Old 06-16-2008   #8
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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I do think you maybe correct about the method the texans are attacked but the result will depend some on who we play and how they play . If Adibi is going to be the choice for a lb spot we will cover a lot better than you purpose especially if you put bentley on the opposite side . If we have molden as a nickel corner and bennett with reese we could be good there to , the only downer are the safety players . The expectations of a good to great defense if they can stay healthy are reasonable but a bunch depends on the offense getting it going and not having the defense play the whole game all year . I am going with a fifth place finish .
There are only 4 teams in the division man.... and there's no way this is a top 5 defense yet. We're on the right track... but not there yet.

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Old 06-16-2008   #9
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
There are only 4 teams in the division man.... and there's no way this is a top 5 defense yet. We're on the right track... but not there yet.

Mike
Ok so we can tell you feel different than me but just where are you predicting this defense to fall to ?
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Old 06-17-2008   #10
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
We'll be an above average defense who is susceptible to the pass. I think we're going to see a lot of slants run on us this year. 3 wr sets are going to give us severe problems. When we play teams with young QB's however, and those that struggle to protect the QB, we will see a glimpse into the future.

Mike
I think that this is a good prediction right here.

The Texans will have problems in the secondary for sure. The pass rush should be better which will help, but how well they'll be able to hide a poor secondary is the question.

I really think that the Texans should make some offers for Lito Sheppard. I know his asking price is a little high, but he is a proven player and we need another CB really bad right now. We'll end up trying to get one in the first or second round of the draft next year most likely, so why not trade a pick or two for a guy that has been to two pro bowls and is still pretty young? At least you know what you're getting, instead of a rookie who will have growing pains.
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Old 06-18-2008   #11
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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I think that this is a good prediction right here.

The Texans will have problems in the secondary for sure. The pass rush should be better which will help, but how well they'll be able to hide a poor secondary is the question.

I really think that the Texans should make some offers for Lito Sheppard. I know his asking price is a little high, but he is a proven player and we need another CB really bad right now. We'll end up trying to get one in the first or second round of the draft next year most likely, so why not trade a pick or two for a guy that has been to two pro bowls and is still pretty young? At least you know what you're getting, instead of a rookie who will have growing pains.
ah no. Don't spend your move up ammo a year away from when you are going to need it. Have you even previewed the '09 draft class yet ? Very bad idea.
Whole board of elite young OLBs, DEs, O-linemen... a monster FS, & Mr. Wells. Not a good idea at all. Robinson will be back in November and ready to be resigned. Or are you suggesting we cut Robinson outright and Give 'ol Litto Robinson's money ?

110 yards rushing per game.... can the o-line consistently keep the d-line fresh and sipping gator aide on the bench. Will they be good enough they go 180 degrees and use the rush to set up the pass? If we do that, the defense will meander into the top twelve.
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Old 06-18-2008   #12
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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ah no. Don't spend your move up ammo a year away from when you are going to need it. Have you even previewed the '09 draft class yet ? Very bad idea.
Whole board of elite young OLBs, DEs, O-linemen... a monster FS, & Mr. Wells. Not a good idea at all. Robinson will be back in November and ready to be resigned. Or are you suggesting we cut Robinson outright and Give 'ol Litto Robinson's money ?

110 yards rushing per game.... can the o-line consistently keep the d-line fresh and sipping gator aide on the bench. Will they be good enough they go 180 degrees and use the rush to set up the pass? If we do that, the defense will meander into the top twelve.
Where did you get that I would want to cut Robinson? In this day and age you need several good CB's. And how do you know that Robinson is even going to come back and be completely the same guy? I sure hope he is, but there has been reports that his injury was so bad that he might not be quite as athletic or agile. I'm pretty confident that he will be the same guy, but again it isn't a guarantee. He isn't expected to come back until like week 10 anyway. That could end up being week 12 or 13 even. Right now our strongest CB is probably Bennett who barely played a few games last year and palyed really well, but he is going to have some extremely strong challenges this year.

I have no probelm giving up a 2nd round pick for a proven Pro Bowl CB that is still pretty young. He is proven, and many of the supposed studs that you find early in the draft end up being busts so I am more in tuned to invseting into a proven palyer rather than a player with hype. Sheppard and Robinson could end up being a great duo for many years to come with Bennett along as the 3rd guy working in the zone as well against spread offense formations. A lot of teams are doing that now days, and that is why 3 CB's that can play is becoming more of a NEED than a WANT.
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Old 06-16-2008   #13
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

If we don't get any takeaways then it doesn't really matter much how good our defense is. They have to be able to get off the field otherwise teams can just continue to pound the ball and move the chains. If opponents aren't afraid of turning the ball over, they'll go with the safe play more often than not and that doesn't change how good we are at breaking up plays. I know that sounds confusing a little bit but I really believe it really does hinge on takeaways on where our defense will finish and we're terrible there.

It makes sense to me for a team to want to play the safe route more often if they don't fear turning the football over against a defensive unit rather than going for the bigtime play all the time. That's how teams seemed to play us. It seemed like that they would rather have their runningback face off with Morlon Greenwood than trying to match up with Bennett or Dunta. Morlon will tackle them but they at least get some yards. With Dunta, it was a hit or miss but they either lost yards or gave up the big play. We also still have to figure out the Peyton project and then we should be good after that. We do face him twice a season and that plays a big factor into our stats. He's not a stat machine like Brady but a VERY VERY good football player who can get rid of the ball in a HURRY. Just probably one of the smartest football players to play the game.

I'm in no way claiming to be a football expert. Just a regular fan giving his personal opinion. I, of course, could be VERY wrong here.

I won't be giving out any rankings though. I don't really care where we're ranked. I just want to win and play some good football games. We'll blow some. We'll win some.
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Old 06-17-2008   #14
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

[quote=TheRealJoker;938599]This is in Total Defense, you can also throw in ppg and takeaways but mainly just the overall defensive rank. Now that we've signed Colvin I think we're through with notable FA signings this offseason.

Colvin brings us a pass rushing presence opposite Mario which was the most glaring hole left that needed to be filled after the draft. He has some negative things about him however, he has played mainly LB since he's been in the NFL whereas the Texans will most likely have him play DE in passing situations. But the biggest negative is HEALTH. QUOTE] I disagree with you on him being mainly a Linebacker his best two seasons were at the DE position where he registered 10.5 Sacks in Chicago where he was drafted. I do agree with you we have the potential to break into the top 10 defenses in NFL and that all depends on how well the secondary plays.
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Old 06-17-2008   #15
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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I disagree with you on him being mainly a Linebacker his best two seasons were at the DE position where he registered 10.5 Sacks in Chicago where he was drafted. I do agree with you we have the potential to break into the top 10 defenses in NFL and that all depends on how well the secondary plays.
He was a LB for the Bears who occasionally put his hand down.

There are links in this thread. Read them

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50822
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Old 06-17-2008   #16
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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He was a LB for the Bears who occasionally put his hand down.

There are links in this thread. Read them

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50822
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Old 06-17-2008   #17
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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He was a LB for the Bears who occasionally put his hand down.

There are links in this thread. Read them

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50822
He was a LB for the Patriots? who occasionally put his hand down.

There are links in this thread. Read them

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50822


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Old 06-17-2008   #18
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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He was a LB for the Patriots? who occasionally put his hand down.

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http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50822


I was quoting the other poster who stated he was a DE in Chicago.

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Old 06-17-2008   #19
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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I was quoting the other poster who stated he was a DE in Chicago.

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Wha???
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Old 06-16-2008   #20
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Default Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense

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Predict the Texans statistical finish
@ TRJ
That's a great discussion topic. Here's a little factoid I dug up at NFL.com...

Last year the Texans ranked 21th in total team Sacks with 31. That is roughly 1.9 sacks a game. If the Texans revamped defense, can average just a half a sack more per game we would be looking at roughly 38.5 sacks - which would have been good enough for a top-ten finish when going by last years sack totals. Of course, keep in mind, that's top-ten in total sacks. If we were to increase the average sacks from 1.9 to 2.7 (that's still averaging less than a sack a game) we would be looking at a top five finish (again based on last years sack totals).

In as far as how that pertains to the Texans total defense for next year? Well, high sack totals don't necessarily equate to top ranked defenses - as the neither the Steelers, Bucs, or Colts were in the top-ten total sacks. But if the Texans are figuring to have a better pass rush, which I'm betting they will, that will increase quarterback pressure - as the QB pressure goes up, so do the opportunity for interceptions - and that's a department the Texans need to improve in. Big time. They ranked dead last in 2007.

If the Texans have any chance of breaking the top ten in total defense, the interception total is going to have to higher. Until they prove that they can do that, their total team defense is going to suffer.

With the uncertainties in the secondary, (not saying I doubt they'll perform, we just don't know how well) I can only give them a 14th - but on the brightside of that assessment - that's a ten team improvement.

I really want to revist this topic about six games into the season. Great post TRJ.
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