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Old 10-07-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default Vikings Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “Terrific 12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their Terrific 12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a Terrific 12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 Terrific 12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a Terrific 12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How about the Texans next opponent, the Vikings, How does their Terrific 12 compare with the Texans?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . YR . . . Vikings (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 RB Michael Bennett
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . .’02 OT Bryant McKinnie
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . .‘03 DL Kevin Williams
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . ’04 DE Kenechi Udeze
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 DT Willie Howard (released)
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . .’02 LB Raonall Smith
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . . ‘03 LB E. J. Henderson
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . .‘04 LB Dontarrious Thomas
D

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '01 DB Eric Kelly (released)
T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . ’02 DB Willie Offord
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
I . ’03. . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . ’03 WR Nate Burleson
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 .QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 DL Darrion Scott

I would argue that the Vikings illustrate how we have ‘arrived’ after just three years of drafts, more than some teams that have been compared in various postings. We drafted 13 first day players and they have drafted 12. We’ve generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) and they have generated 7 starters (I think – Bennett, Burleson, McKinnie, Williams, Udeze, Henderson, Thomas).

. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Vikings (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . . . RB Michael Bennett

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . WR Nate Burleson
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . . . OT Bryant McKinnie
. . . . . . OL Seth Wand
. . . . . . OL Fred Weary

. . . . . . DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . DL Kevin Williams
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DE Kenechi Udeze
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DL Darrion Scott
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT Willie Howard (released)

. . . . . . LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . .LB E. J. Henderson
. . . . . . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Raonall Smith
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Dontarrious Thomas

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . .DB Willie Offord
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Eric Kelly (released)


Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above? I think the comparison is particularly difficult, because we drafted primary for offense in our first two drafts and they drafted for defense.

I’m looking forward to seeing their young defenders this weekend. Many posters have suggested we should draft D-linemen in the future. My feeling is that the Vikings have had more success drafting D-linemen than many of the teams in the last couple of years, but time will tell.


Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their Terrific 12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 Terrific 12. Great news!
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Old 10-07-2004   #2
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Well looks like all their defensive drafting was a waste so far it hasnt proved to help them yet ! I'd keep ours over theirs any day ! No Comparison !!!!
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Old 10-08-2004   #3
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what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday? absolutely nothing. no offense, i know this takes a lot of time to do, but it's a massive waste of time. i could care less about minnesota's T12, because we play them what, once every 5 years. the only teams that the T12 should matter with are intradivision foes, and even then, i could care less about where they're drafted, but how they're producing. you're like the guy on hornfans who still thinks we're better than OU when we've outrecruited them over the past few years, when in essence coaching, gameplanning, and player development are what really matter. stop wasting your time w/ this T12 nonsense.
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Old 10-08-2004   #4
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This is just a fun comparison. If you don't like the topic, get out of the thread.
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Old 10-08-2004   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday? absolutely nothing. no offense, i know this takes a lot of time to do, but it's a massive waste of time. i could care less about minnesota's T12, because we play them what, once every 5 years. the only teams that the T12 should matter with are intradivision foes, and even then, i could care less about where they're drafted, but how they're producing. you're like the guy on hornfans who still thinks we're better than OU when we've outrecruited them over the past few years, when in essence coaching, gameplanning, and player development are what really matter. stop wasting your time w/ this T12 nonsense.

We're an expansion team. It's the third season of our existence and this is one method of charting our progress. I think it's, at the very least, interesting. If you're not interested, go and join the rest of your kind on the very exciting prediction thread- or better yet, one of the fire palmer threads.

He wasn't saying that the Texans are better than the Vikes, nor was he saying that we'll win on Sunday. He's simply charting the progress of our draft and comparing it with the Vikings.
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Old 10-08-2004   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy
We're an expansion team. It's the third season of our existence and this is one method of charting our progress. I think it's, at the very least, interesting. If you're not interested, go and join the rest of your kind on the very exciting prediction thread- or better yet, one of the fire palmer threads.

He wasn't saying that the Texans are better than the Vikes, nor was he saying that we'll win on Sunday. He's simply charting the progress of our draft and comparing it with the Vikings.
That would sum up my thoughts as well. I also think that the Terrific 12 posts are interesting. I like to look and see how the Texans drafting stands up to other teams.
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Old 10-08-2004   #7
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I don't follow college football or drafts, so I never know anything about the other teams new players to compare with ours, but I still think this is really good stuff for those who can get something out of it. I also think it was really good reading the first time I read about the lack of "T12" in the first year and the surplus of them next year. I read it every week, despite my lack of player knowledge. It's a good thread for me and a great one for some others.
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Old 10-08-2004   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday? absolutely nothing. no offense, i know this takes a lot of time to do, but it's a massive waste of time. i could care less about minnesota's T12, because we play them what, once every 5 years. the only teams that the T12 should matter with are intradivision foes, and even then, i could care less about where they're drafted, but how they're producing. you're like the guy on hornfans who still thinks we're better than OU when we've outrecruited them over the past few years, when in essence coaching, gameplanning, and player development are what really matter. stop wasting your time w/ this T12 nonsense.
Just don't click on the thread then. I for one think this is interesting and hope Mistral keeps it up through the season. Good work Mistral.
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Old 10-08-2004   #9
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I always find this thread interesting. Do I understand every bit of it? Of course not. But it is an interesting way to compare our team with our next opponent. I can only imagine the time and effort that Mistril puts into his posts, and I commend him for it. I always check it sometime during the week leading up to game day, and I'll continue to do so as long as he posts it. Keep up the good work Mistril.
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Old 10-08-2004   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday? absolutely nothing.
I agree. This has absolutely nothing to do with who will win the game Sunday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
no offense ... when in essence coaching, gameplanning, and player development are what really matter...
I completely agree with what I believe is your point. I think that who we draft is only part of the story. Equally important is how well we develop them. In this regard, I feel our organization has done an excellent job (although I'm not offering any additional info to substantiate this). I would argue that the Texans had it relatively easy in regards to player development, because they were an expansion team and it was easier to give drafted players the opportunity to develop. For example, it was easier to start Carr in '02 than it is to start Manning in '04, when the Giants aren't sure how many games they can win with Warner.

I also want to thank other posters for their kind words and support.
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Old 10-08-2004   #11
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I never reply to the T12 posts, and I am not quite sure what to take out of it, but it's interesting nonetheless. I hope you continue them, Mistril, and I hope the ant-T12 guy goes off to another thread.
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Old 10-08-2004   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday? absolutely nothing. no offense, i know this takes a lot of time to do, but it's a massive waste of time. i could care less about minnesota's T12, because we play them what, once every 5 years. the only teams that the T12 should matter with are intradivision foes, and even then, i could care less about where they're drafted, but how they're producing. you're like the guy on hornfans who still thinks we're better than OU when we've outrecruited them over the past few years, when in essence coaching, gameplanning, and player development are what really matter. stop wasting your time w/ this T12 nonsense.
One of the great things about being an NFL fan is that you can be a fan in so many different ways. Some guys like to crunch numbers. Some guys love the action and the controlled aggression. Some people just like to run around and yell "yay team", drink beer and paint their face. Bottom line we can all follow the NFL in our own way. This T-12 summary is just another way to break down how we look at how this team was constructed in relation to existing mature NFL teams. I don't consider this stuff a waste of time. It's an interesting snapshot of the talent that the teams have chosen over the last couple of years if you have any interest in the salary cap and its ramifications.
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Old 10-08-2004   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longhorn Jimmy
no offense, i know this takes a lot of time to do, but it's a massive waste of time.
I couldn't disagree more.

One of the biggest problems with sports fans today is short term thinking.

So many decisions, (coaching, drafting, free agency, player development) can't be seen in week to week comparsions.

It's very helpful to not only track decision making for, in this case, Charley Casserly, but also to compare him to other GMs around the league.

You can never have too much information.

This is damn fine and much appreciated work, Mistril
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Old 10-08-2004   #14
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I read every T12 thread too ..though ive never replied to one. I just find it interesting to look at who they have picked and who we have picked and see if we have done better drafting than they have.

Plus, the fact that we are gonna have 16 Top 12 next year is really exciting .. cant wait to see who we pick up.
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Old 10-10-2004   #15
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this is the best weekly thread we have on the board

it touches on so many facets of franchise building

i think jimbos screen name is all you need to see to dismiss him

these threads are not for team fans, they are for franchise fans

"what the heck does this have to do with who will win the game on sunday?"

is there a stronger word than ignorant that would apply here

Mistral, please keep it up
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