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Old 05-12-2004   #1
infantrycak
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Took a look at some of the mid-league standards from last season and the Texans' performance last year for a little perspective on the spread in the league and improvement the Texans need to make. The 1st numbers below are to be mid-pack in the NFL, i.e. between the 16th and 17th teams last year and the second is the Texans' mark for last year.

# offensive plays: 1008 v. 896
Total offense per game: 317 v. 269
Yards per O play: 5.1 v. 4.8
1st downs per game: 18.2 v. 14.8
3rd down %: 36.5 v. 29.9
4th down %: 3rd best in league at 64.3%
Penalties: 103 v. 121
Time of possession: 30 v. 27:39
Scoring per game: 19.5 v. 15.9
TD's: 35 v. 29
Rushing yards: 1820 v. 1651
Rushing avg: 4.0 v. 3.9
Passing yards: 3200 v. 2655
Passing %: 58.5 v. 56.5
Passing yards per game: 200 v. 165.9
Yards per reception: 11.4 v. 11.5
Sacks allowed: 36 v. 36

Total D given up per game: 316 v. 380
Yards per D play: 5 v. 5.8
1st downs given up: 18.2 v. 21
3rd down %: 38.1 v. 40.1
Penalites: 104 v. 96
Scoring allowed: 20.4 v. 23.8
TD's: 35 v. 42
Rushing allowed: 1870 v. 2370
Rushing per game: 117 v. 148.1
Yards per rush allowed: 4.1 v. 4.4
Passing allowed: 3237 v. 3712
Passing % allowed: 59.2 v. 59.2
Yards passing per game allowed: 202 v. 232
Sacks: 36 v. 19
Yards per reception allowed: 11.3 v. 12.9

So what if anything can we draw from this?
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Old 05-12-2004   #2
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Our O wasnt far from even with league par even with the injuries of DD and Carr. Our D will be a tun better than last year if we can stay healthy, our run and pass D should improve thanks to off-season aquisitions and haveing almost a totally defensive draft. I think our D will be top 12-10 in the league.
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Old 05-12-2004   #3
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I think it looks like we need to improve all acrosse the board to even get to the middle of the pack. As close as all the teams are to each other, what seems like a small amount, may in fact prove to be a bit wider than it appears.
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Old 05-13-2004   #4
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Those offensive numbers are definitely scewed a little. No excuses, because all teams deal with injuries. We still need more depth at OL and then I think we will be a consistent #12-#18 offense.
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Old 05-13-2004   #5
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i see no passing game and too many penalties on offense. on defense, no big men = no pass rush & no run D.
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Old 05-13-2004   #6
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I see how we drastically improved on the offensive line giving up sacks but being very inconsistent with alot of holding and false start penalties. There was a time when we would move in scoring range but then move right back out of it. I think this will improve as the unit now will have been with each other two years in a row with the exception of Wade.

We werent so bad offensively considering the defenses we played this year (Titans twice, New England, Miami, Carolina). Overall I see our 3rd down conversions need to really improve this year.

Defensively we look like we need work but I think being healthy was a major part of that. The stat that stands out is the sack #. Too low considering the veteran athletes we have on defense. I am sure with the additions we have made to the defense this will turnaround.

I wonder where we are as far as defensive turnovers go.
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Old 05-16-2004   #7
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infantrycak,
I'm a little confused about some of these numbers. Shouldn't some of these league average numbers, such as 3rd conversion %, be the same for both offense & defense? Did you subtract the numbers from the Texans games prior to calculating the averages?

(Offense)
3rd down %: 36.5 v. 29.9
Scoring per game: 19.5 v. 15.9
Rushing yards: 1820 v. 1651
Passing yards: 3200 v. 2655

(Defense)
3rd down %: 38.1 v. 40.1
Scoring allowed: 20.4 v. 23.8
Rushing allowed: 1870 v. 2370
Passing allowed: 3237 v. 3712

Looking at these numbers, itís important to remember that the offense and defense results arenít independent of each other. The offense can help the defense by manufacturing long drives, avoiding turnovers, and just plain scoring points. The offense will hinder the defense by a lot of 3 & outs, costly interceptions or fumbles, and not converting opportunities. Conversely, the defense assists the offenseís production by causing turnovers and preventing long drives. If the defense improves, so should some of the offenseís statistics. And vice versa. Neither side exists in a vacuum nor are their numbers created in such.

Some smart guy could possibly derive a formula that relates what one sideís contribution to the others data is. Good luck with that. Again, itís easy to see from the numbers that the Texans need to improve, more difficult to pinpoint where the improvement is most needed.
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Old 05-16-2004   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
I'm a little confused about some of these numbers. Shouldn't some of these league average numbers, such as 3rd conversion %, be the same for both offense & defense? Did you subtract the numbers from the Texans games prior to calculating the averages?
Actually I should have said median rather than average. The numbers are those between the 16th and 17th teams in each category last year. If they were averages then the numbers should correlate on the two sides of the ball.

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Looking at these numbers, itís important to remember that the offense and defense results arenít independent of each other. The offense can help the defense by manufacturing long drives, avoiding turnovers, and just plain scoring points. The offense will hinder the defense by a lot of 3 & outs, costly interceptions or fumbles, and not converting opportunities. Conversely, the defense assists the offenseís production by causing turnovers and preventing long drives. If the defense improves, so should some of the offenseís statistics. And vice versa. Neither side exists in a vacuum nor are their numbers created in such.

Some smart guy could possibly derive a formula that relates what one sideís contribution to the others data is. Good luck with that. Again, itís easy to see from the numbers that the Texans need to improve, more difficult to pinpoint where the improvement is most needed.
That is in part what I was posting above about the missing offensive plays. As you say, if the offense gets more plays (about 7 per game to get to league median) then that is less plays the defense is on the field. Don't know that there is any 'formula' to relate the two, but it is simple to calculate the lost output due to lack of offensive plays and extra yardage given up by the D due to having to be on the field more. For the offense using the same performance for the other 896 plays, those 112 plays lost cost the Texans 57 passing plays for 32 receptions and 370 yards and 55 rushing plays for 214.5 yards. With those plays the totals would have been 3025 passing (slightly below mid-pack) and 1865 rushing (slightly above mid-pack). You could do the same calculation for the D but frankly right now I don't have a calculator handy--when I have one available I'll edit this to give the D improvement. FYI the median number of plays by defenses was 998 and the Texans defended 1054.
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Old 05-17-2004   #9
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Offense still has a ways to go but came a long way from 2002 and should improve on this past season. Defense slipped due to injuries and lack of depth, but will be greatly improved this season. Looks like were right on schedule. This is the year I have we should be above the NFL average in most categories. Carr needs to step it up this year and find his secondary receivers, needs to improve his touch passes in the red zone. He's got a lot more to work with and the defense should provide more oppurtunities.
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Old 05-17-2004   #10
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Another stat that jumps out is penalties: the offense had 20% more penalties than median despite having 10% less plays (big problem--penalties on 15% of all offensive plays roughly. Flip side, the hodge podge but still veteran defense was almost 10% under despite being about 7% over on number of plays. The offense is carrying a self created anvil around.
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