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Old 08-09-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default C'boys Terrific 12 v. our Terrific 12

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “Terrific 12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their Terrific 12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a Terrific 12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 Terrific 12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a Terrific 12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How does the Texans next opponent’s Terrific 12 compare with ours?

YR Texans (only 3 yrs)

F
I ‘02 QB David Carr
R ‘03 WR Andre Johnson
S ‘04 CB Dunta Robinson
T ‘04 LB Jason Babin

S
E ‘02 WR Jabar Gaffney
C ‘02 OL Chester Pitts
O ‘03 TE Benny Joppru
N ‘04 RB Tony Hollings
D

T ‘02 OL Fred Weary
H ‘02 OL Charles Hill (released)
I ‘03 LB Antwan Peek
R ‘03 OL Seth Wand
D ‘03 QB Dave Ragone

YR C’boys (4 yrs)

F
I ’02 DB Roy Williams
R ’03 CB Terence Newman
S
T

‘01 QB Quincy Carter (released)
S ’01 DB Tony Dixon
E ’02 OL Andre Gurode
C ’02 WR Antonio Bryant
O ’03 OL Al Johnson
N ’04 RB Julius Jones
D ’04 OL Jacob Rogers

T ’01 DT Willie Blade (released)
H ‘02 DB Derek Ross (released)
I ’03 TE Jason Witten
R ’04 OL Stephen Peterson
D

Old Posting

And the news gets better. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their Terrific 12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 Terrific 12. Great news!
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Old 08-09-2004   #2
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How does the Texans next opponent’s Terrific 12 compare with ours?
Looks pretty good. I do have one question though. If it is called a Terrific 12 why is there 13 players listed for both teams.
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Old 08-09-2004   #3
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A baker's dozen ?
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Old 08-09-2004   #4
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Originally Posted by thegr8fan
Looks pretty good. I do have one question though. If it is called a Terrific 12 why is there 13 players listed for both teams.
The 12 refers to the potential of 4 years of 3 draft picks, although a team could utilize more picks through trades.

The Texans currently have 12 such picks on the roster (13-1 released)
The Cowboys currently have 10 such picks on the roster (13-3 released)
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Old 08-09-2004   #5
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OK, thanks for clearing that up Mistril.

But do you honestly think that it would be a 'fair' comparison to compare our 3 years of drafting to the Cowboys last 4 years. There is a big difference between 1 draft class and the next. So shouldn't there be a big difference between 3 and 4 years of picks?

Honestly I am a Texans fan so I would naturally have to say I like our players/picks stacked up against theirs, no matter who the team. But here is the 'problem', THEY made it into the playoff's, WE didn't. So does that mean that THEIR players, playing as a team, which is what football is about, actually complement each other better team wise and therefor were better picks.

It is about the playoffs, so I think in comparison, their picks were better for thier teams success.
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Old 08-10-2004   #6
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Originally Posted by thegr8fan
But here is the 'problem', THEY made it into the playoff's, WE didn't. So does that mean that THEIR players, playing as a team, which is what football is about, actually complement each other better team wise and therefor were better picks.
Well, taking a 1 year snapshot is one way to compare the 2 sets of players. It doesn't take into account the players Dallas took in previous drafts, and you can't really make that a "Terrific Twelve" comparison since Robinson & Babin weren't on the team at that time. The 1 year snap shot would be valid for the '04 season, however, as the Texans have completed 3 drafts.

Here's another way to look at the 2 lists. If you're the GM, would you trade the players on the Texans list for the players on the Cowboys list? I don't think I would.
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Old 08-10-2004   #7
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Default Re: C'boys Terrific 12 v. our Terrific 12

Quote:
Originally Posted by thegr8fan
... But do you honestly think that it would be a 'fair' comparison to compare our 3 years of drafting to the Cowboys last 4 years. There is a big difference between 1 draft class and the next. So shouldn't there be a big difference between 3 and 4 years of picks? ...
I was trying to make the statement:

a) that players drafted the first day are particularly valuable to a franchise for 4 years, because of the salary cap; and

b) that the Texans now have caught up with other teams in this regard, because of expansion picks and CC. Although we didn't get to participate in the 2001 draft, we have as large a salary cap friendly pool of players drafted on the first day as other teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thegr8fan
Honestly I am a Texans fan so I would naturally have to say I like our players/picks stacked up against theirs, no matter who the team. But here is the 'problem', THEY made it into the playoff's, WE didn't. So does that mean that THEIR players, playing as a team, which is what football is about, actually complement each other better team wise and therefor were better picks.

It is about the playoffs, so I think in comparison, their picks were better for thier teams success.
The C'boys made the playoffs because their division included two teams that totally collapsed, fired their coaches and co-ordinators and changed their starting quarterbacks. Our division contained both co-MVPs and two teams that won playoff games. That's a swing of 4 games. Our records look a lot closer if you don't include their Wash/NY games and our Tenn/Indy games.

Also, I would argue that the players Dallas drafted in the last 4 years weren't the reason they made the playoffs.

I think this bundle of drafted players tells you a lot about where a franchise is going. We have Carr/Johnson/Davis. At one time, they had Aikman/Irvin/Smith (Terrific 12 players). They have Testiverte/Johnson/George now. I like our future better.
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