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Old 01-11-2014   #1
Number19
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Default Ideal Scenarios

One question going around the board is: do we draft a QB with our top pick or do we trade down, picking up a QB lower in the draft, in rounds two or three? I offer the suggestion that we wait until 2015 to pick up our QB of the future. With this as a possibility, here is one "Ideal Scenario".


1) Hire Mike Munchak as OL coach. From what I've read, Munchak has a reputation of coaching up his players to perform beyond expectations and abilities. Taking this into account; and keeping Myers, Brooks, Brown, Quessenberry and Williams as a core, we can go into the draft with an eye toward drafting one player with a high pick.

2) For BoB to spend many sleepless nights analyzing Keenum and Yates and finding enough that he thinks, with a full off season, he can work with what the team already has. In making this decision, what must be evaluated is whether a QB drafted in the mid-rounds is much of an improvement over these two. If he doesn't much like what he sees, that means, of course, we must address the position higher in the draft.

3) For a trade with Cleveland to materialize and we end up with another first this year and a first next year.

4) For two of the three premium QB's, and Clowney, to be taken in the first three picks; and for a team at the bottom of the top 10 to give up a second for pick #4.

5) We end up with two #1's and two high #2's this year and an extra #1 next year.

6) With these four picks, we pick up our OL'man and three defensive players.

7) After training camp, if not earlier, we pick up a veteran QB, no more than a two year contract. Our expectations for the season is to win 6-8 games with either Keenum or Yates at QB ( or the veteran ), which should be possible with our weak schedule. Using this draft to upgrade the overall talent on defense and offense, BoB now has a full year to evaluate Case and TJ within his offense and, if then necessary, using our two, first round, picks in 2015 to draft our QB.

In my mind, the key to this scenario is whether Case, or TJ, bring as much to the table as any possibility in the mid-rounds of this year's draft. TJ is your larger, pocket passer and Case is your spread offense smaller, running QB. Both are young QB's without much playing time; and the playing time they do have was under difficult mid-season changes. So the decision facing BoB is first, do we take a QB with 1-1; and if we decide not to, how to then evaluate Case and TJ against the other possibilities. The only way to make this decision is film room time - lots of film room time.
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Old 01-11-2014   #2
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Neither QB is capable of starting and winning more than they lose. At some point in the future they may be but not now and neither of them have a high ceiling. Coming into last season case was an unknown. Now he is a known. If we are rebuilding and looking for a warm body for a year fine but this team has playoff aspirations. If any QB on our roster is our starter next year it is a disaster.

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Old 01-11-2014   #3
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
Neither QB is capable of starting and winning more than they lose. At some point in the future they may be but not now and neither of them have a high ceiling. Coming into last season case was an unknown. Now he is a known. If we are rebuilding and looking for a warm body for a year fine but this team has playoff aspirations. If any QB on our roster is our starter next year it is a disaster.

Mike
Yep. The young guns should be able to win without help, right? They can pass the ball, catch the ball, and run away from the sieve which was our oline. I gotcha. No help required.
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Old 01-11-2014   #4
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
Yep. The young guns should be able to win without help, right? They can pass the ball, catch the ball, and run away from the sieve which was our oline. I gotcha. No help required.
What a BS argument. The truth is that TJ was 2-3 with a complete team. Case was progressively worse as teams got tape on him.

Did Case do anything to make you believe he is the successor? Seriously?

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Old 01-11-2014   #5
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
...Did Case do anything to make you believe he is the successor? Seriously?
This is the wrong question. The question should be: what are the realistic expectations for next season and can Case achieve this degree of success in the short term?

Evaluating only his college film, how does he compare to this year's QB's?

My understanding is that the big negative on Case is that he didn't work from under center and worked from the spread offense. But this is exactly where the pro game seems to be moving toward. His size was also questioned and his arm strength was questioned. But my understanding is that he was one of the QB's brought in early at Indy to throw to the receivers and had a tired arm when it came time for his own evaluation.

If we can acquire additional picks in 2015, then O'Brien could have all of next year for making a final decision on what level of success Case might eventually acquire. But I do think it probable that O'Brien will want to take a QB in this year's draft.

I'm with 76Texan in that this coming season is going to be interesting.
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Old 01-11-2014   #6
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Number19 View Post

I'm with 76Texan in that this coming season is going to be interesting.
I don't agree with 76 when it comes to Keenum , he still believes in him , I think the experiment is over tho I would consider keeping him around as a backup , nothing more.

The most telling thing to me is that the more he played , the worse he got as defenses figured out how to make him uncomfortable and ineffective.
He started off pretty good , made some big plays along the way but was incapable of sustaining or finishing drives.

Would have been a great story , but there is no storybook ending for this one ....

Cut Schaub , draft a rookie , sign a cheap free agent .... let those two fight it out with Keenum & Yates.


Yeah , it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.
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Old 01-11-2014   #7
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

next year im just hoping for a 7-9 season if we get any higher I would be SHocked ....
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Old 01-11-2014   #8
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Originally Posted by Number19 View Post
This is the wrong question. The question should be: what are the realistic expectations for next season and can Case achieve this degree of success in the short term?

Evaluating only his college film, how does he compare to this year's QB's?

My understanding is that the big negative on Case is that he didn't work from under center and worked from the spread offense. But this is exactly where the pro game seems to be moving toward. His size was also questioned and his arm strength was questioned. But my understanding is that he was one of the QB's brought in early at Indy to throw to the receivers and had a tired arm when it came time for his own evaluation.

If we can acquire additional picks in 2015, then O'Brien could have all of next year for making a final decision on what level of success Case might eventually acquire. But I do think it probable that O'Brien will want to take a QB in this year's draft.

I'm with 76Texan in that this coming season is going to be interesting.
Evaluate only his college film? Why go to the college tape? Why not just evaluate all of the QB's by their pop warner film? You have pro film on Case. He has a decent arm but is terrible when blitzed (he tends not to make the right reads). To say he didn't have any weapons is inaccurate. There was enough talent around him for him to throw for 7 TDs 0 INTs while completing 55% of his passes for 772 yards in his first three games against KC, IND and ARI (two pretty good defenses).

After that Jax 2 times, NE, OAK and IND held him to 2 TDs, 6 INTs and he only got over 55% completion ratio once. Once teams got film on him he was terrible. If you need more evidence, in the second half of those first three games he threw one TD (to AJ) in the second half.

I'm not going to tell you that he can't be a decent QB but he isn't a franchise QB. Simply put, in today's NFL I want more development from my QB than I have had from Case in 2 years.

Sure I don't want to spend resources on a QB if there isn't one available and I am a big proponent of trading back but you have to at least try to address the QB position this season. I wanted to see what Case could do last year and even if your goal isn't the playoffs this year, the moment a QB self eliminates himself from the future you should be taking a flyer on another QB instead of wasting resources on a guy that has shown he isn't the guy. Take a guy in the 3rd or 4th, I don't care, but don't limp out there with a guy that isn't good enough to be a stop gap and most likely peaked in his first 3 games in the NFL.

Mike
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Old 01-11-2014   #9
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
...this team has playoff aspirations...
Mike
IMO, you are wrong. Next year's team isn't even assembled yet, so it is flat out impossible for "it" to have any kind of expectations. Now, if you mean "you" have playoff aspirations for the team next season, IMO, you are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment. Of course, you may be speaking only in hypotheticals, in which case all 32 teams have playoff aspirations. But realistically, significant improvement is what should be expected, or as I previously stated, 6 to 8 wins. We may do better, but, as fans, it should not be realistically expected. And I also think that O'Brian, and his future staff, will be much more qualified to determine what he can accomplish with T.J. and Case.

If we use the 1-1 on a QB, I have no doubts that this player will perform at a higher level than either Keenum or Yates. But I wouldn't bet the farm that this would hold true for a player selected in the mid-rounds.
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Yeah, that would approach what I'd pretty much call ideal...
Although realistically the chance of the two trade down is unlikely to happen, it is not at all uncommon. If we can get that first trade with Cleveland, I'd definitely be looking for that second trade to move a few spots lower in exchange for another two. If we trade the 1-1, to get value, we absolutely will get at a minimum a one and a two. A one next year, in trade value, is counted as a two this year, so an extra one this year and a one next year is value for value. Trading from #4 to #9 is worth a two; so that is how I arrived at my picks. Really, if the cards fell right, not that hard to see happening.

The only real question mark is how O'Brian evaluates Keenum and Yates. My personal opinion is that Keenum has the higher chance of sticking with the team. But Kubiak saw something to draft TJ in the 5th, so maybe a new coach and a new system would give TJ a new chance.
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Old 01-11-2014   #10
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Number19 View Post
IMO, you are wrong. Next year's team isn't even assembled yet, so it is flat out impossible for "it" to have any kind of expectations. Now, if you mean "you" have playoff aspirations for the team next season, IMO, you are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment. Of course, you may be speaking only in hypotheticals, in which case all 32 teams have playoff aspirations. But realistically, significant improvement is what should be expected, or as I previously stated, 6 to 8 wins. We may do better, but, as fans, it should not be realistically expected. And I also think that O'Brian, and his future staff, will be much more qualified to determine what he can accomplish with T.J. and Case.

If we use the 1-1 on a QB, I have no doubts that this player will perform at a higher level than either Keenum or Yates. But I wouldn't bet the farm that this would hold true for a player selected in the mid-rounds.
Although realistically the chance of the two trade down is unlikely to happen, it is not at all uncommon. If we can get that first trade with Cleveland, I'd definitely be looking for that second trade to move a few spots lower in exchange for another two. If we trade the 1-1, to get value, we absolutely will get at a minimum a one and a two. A one next year, in trade value, is counted as a two this year, so an extra one this year and a one next year is value for value. Trading from #4 to #9 is worth a two; so that is how I arrived at my picks. Really, if the cards fell right, not that hard to see happening.

The only real question mark is how O'Brian evaluates Keenum and Yates. My personal opinion is that Keenum has the higher chance of sticking with the team. But Kubiak saw something to draft TJ in the 5th, so maybe a new coach and a new system would give TJ a new chance.
You might be interested in my mock draft in that forum presented as BADBOY's January mock. I have been talking about a trade with Browns for some time and offer a second trade also. Appreciate the thought you put into your thread POV.
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Old 01-12-2014   #11
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by Number19 View Post
IMO, you are wrong. Next year's team isn't even assembled yet, so it is flat out impossible for "it" to have any kind of expectations. Now, if you mean "you" have playoff aspirations for the team next season, IMO, you are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment. Of course, you may be speaking only in hypotheticals, in which case all 32 teams have playoff aspirations. But realistically, significant improvement is what should be expected, or as I previously stated, 6 to 8 wins. We may do better, but, as fans, it should not be realistically expected. And I also think that O'Brian, and his future staff, will be much more qualified to determine what he can accomplish with T.J. and Case.
No. I'm looking at the fact that for a 2-14 team this team doesn't have as many holes as you would expect.

QB.
RB could be an issue if Foster isn't healthy but the most successful teams in the league don't rely on one solid back anymore these days.
Our OL is kind of weak at RT but that's really our only weakness.
WR. I think we're in pretty decent shape.
TE. I'm comfortable with our position.

On defense:
DL. We could use a true NT in RC's defense but I think that we have our end positions covered pretty well with JJ. We just need someone to occupy blockers opposite him.

LBs. Obviously this is our weakest position on the team outside of QB. Cush may or may not be back so you have to look for his replacement (or partner if he comes back). WM is passable and I would move Reed inside and try to get a better Sam. If Cush comes back I'm good with WM, BR, BC, X If not you have two holes to fill.

DBs.

I really don't think our DBs are as bad as they looked. Jackson is a true #1 and JJoe has regressed but he's still an outstanding #2. Find a nickel guy and we're in decent shape for the CBs.

At S I'm ok with Manning/Swearenger.

Fill QB, One of the two LBs, RT and RB if Foster doesn't come back healthy, and this is a playoff team. The key is to add solid depth but this team should not be shooting for 6-8 wins next season. There is just too much talent and besides, suppose we win 6 games next year. That's probably the 7-10th pick. We have no idea who will be out there.

Mike
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Old 01-11-2014   #12
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Not directed at you, but as a springboard:

Can we please eliminate all the Bob stuff? It's confusing having it all over the MB about both the coach and owner with umpteen different spellings to boot.

To illustrate - BoB FYI was steelb's slam at McNair for being cheap.
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Old 01-11-2014   #13
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

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Not directed at you, but as a springboard:

Can we please eliminate all the Bob stuff? It's confusing having it all over the MB about both the coach and owner with umpteen different spellings to boot.

To illustrate - BoB FYI was steelb's slam at McNair for being cheap.
But BO would be confusing with an OBAMANATION with the same initials.

BM isn't really a good thing to call our owner unless he starts wearing Jersey number 2.

I'll go along with BOB for the coach and Bob for the owner. Fair enough?
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Old 01-11-2014   #14
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But BO would be confusing with an OBAMANATION with the same initials.

BM isn't really a good thing to call our owner unless he starts wearing Jersey number 2.

I'll go along with BOB for the coach and Bob for the owner. Fair enough?
Marshall!!!! You made the switch to Texans Talk too?!.
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Old 01-11-2014   #15
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Marshall!!!! You made the switch to Texans Talk too?!.
I wasn't given a choice after the Mods went on a hissy fit.
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Old 01-11-2014   #16
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I wasn't given a choice after the Mods went on a hissy fit.
I got an infraction for talking smack about the Colts. I guess we should all love other teams especially our rivals.
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Old 01-11-2014   #17
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I wasn't given a choice after the Mods went on a hissy fit.
I got banned for quoting a moderator's post and then using his favorite words "Don't discuss non-Texans in the Bullpen." He discusses non-Texan in the Bullpen, but I was banned for "moderator abuse" for saying what he said every day. LOL. This board is 100x better.
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Old 01-12-2014   #18
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

FWIW, O'Brien refers to himself as "Obie" in his Brown University yearbook entry, and I've started to refer to him as OB1, but that's me.

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But BO would be confusing with an OBAMANATION with the same initials.
Yeah, some people with thin skin and shorter tempers might not be able to handle it.
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Old 01-12-2014   #19
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But BO would be confusing with an OBAMANATION with the same initials.

BM isn't really a good thing to call our owner unless he starts wearing Jersey number 2.

I'll go along with BOB for the coach and Bob for the owner. Fair enough?
Bill - coach

Bob -owner


that was not too hard was it? same amt of letters in Bill and BOB (Bill O'Brien)
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Old 01-12-2014   #20
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Default Re: Ideal Scenarios

Quote:
Originally Posted by MEGA SWATT View Post
Bill - coach

Bob -owner


that was not too hard was it? same amt of letters in Bill and BOB (Bill O'Brien)
Did you have trouble with higher math - like counting to four?
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