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Old 12-22-2013   #1
dalemurphy
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Default Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
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Old 12-22-2013   #2
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick.
I appreciate your enthusiasm about polishing a turd, but the old saying "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" comes to mind....
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Old 12-22-2013   #3
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

More proof that Smithiak are geniuses.
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Old 12-22-2013   #4
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
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Old 12-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

For the third time in franchise history, a new coach will be handed a #1 pick... hopefully 3rd time is the charm
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Old 12-23-2013   #6
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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For the third time in franchise history, a new coach will be handed a #1 pick... hopefully 3rd time is the charm
With Rick Smith selecting that HC. Doubtful
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Old 12-22-2013   #7
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
Atleast there's more talent than last year, if only marginally.
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Old 12-22-2013   #8
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Atleast there's more talent than last year, if only marginally.
Clowney is definitely a freak.
The question is whether a team is willing to take the risk concerning his character.
Does playing along side JJ Watt and together with Cushing provide the motivation for him to fulfill his potential?

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
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Old 12-22-2013   #9
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
That is thinking based on the previous system. Until the 2011 CBA, the cost was so steep for a 1st round pick as the pick approached #1 overall that a top pick was only seen as a good thing to have in a year when there was one or two clear, top players... The difference between pick #1 and pick #10 might total $20-$25 million over the course of a 5 year deal (that's $4-$5million per season on the cap).. No longer... Now the difference between #1 overall and #31 equals about $4 million per years.

So, in any year, it is the team's advantage at pick #1 to weigh any possible option- trading down, drafting any player available, negotiating with players before the draft, etc... and there is zero penalty because the cap number is reasonable and only slightly more expensive than the subsequent picks.

If you are correct, and there is no clear top choice, the Texans still get the opportunity to grab whatever player they most covet without any other franchise dictating their options... Also, they can weigh their prospective selection against various trade down options (which they will certainly receive)... some teams will undoubtedly covet a player enough to offer significant compensation for that top choice.

Again, beyond 1.1, the Texans will also have further advantages in the draft with picks 2.1 and 4.1- beyond simply picking higher than everyone else, though it is not lost on me how much disappointment it took to get into this position... yet, here we are.
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Old 12-22-2013   #10
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I appreciate your enthusiasm about polishing a turd, but the old saying "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" comes to mind....
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Old 12-22-2013   #11
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Default

Clowney at 1-1 and QB at 2-1. I also see us switching to a 4-3 next year.
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Old 12-23-2013   #12
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
Clowney at 1-1 and QB at 2-1. I also see us switching to a 4-3 next year.
Dunno why people think this. They're built as a 3-4. if they hire o'brien, rick wil suggest dc candidates. He might even bring crennell or pluck mangini.
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Old 12-23-2013   #13
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
Dunno why people think this. They're built as a 3-4. if they hire o'brien, rick wil suggest dc candidates. He might even bring crennell or pluck mangini.
How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
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Old 12-23-2013   #14
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
How's that stout LB core we have working out? Our front 7 is JJ Watt and that's it.
Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
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Old 12-23-2013   #15
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Which could both be said (to the extent they are even true now) in a 4-3.

You want Smith making the play calls too?

Hire the best coach available and let them select the O & D philosophy not the other way around.
Call me crazy but I'd rather have 3 LBs playing crappy than 4 LBs playing crappy, at least the DL would be able to contain something - which would be better than the nothing we do now.

Did Lovie make all the calls in Chicago or did Rivera/Babich/Marinelli make their fair share of the calls?

My scenario is that Lovie gets the job and goes to 4-3. That's not some far fetched notion. I think it makes Cushing's life that much easier.

We'd obviously need someone with a strong and innovated offense but that's another conversation.
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Old 12-22-2013   #16
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
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Old 12-22-2013   #17
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
You are missing my point.

I am speaking of the institutional positioning of the first pick now vs. the institutional positioning prior to 2011. I realize that, at this point, there is no consensus #1 everyone is clamoring for.

I happen to think some of that is simply noise by the media to ramp up interest in coverage, etc... and the information often does not accurately reveal the subjective view of the real, NFL decision-makers that will actually determine the value of these draft choices. I think, with a few exceptions, NFL team draft grades are more varied and distinct from one another than we are led to believe... In other words, an honest poll of NFL GMs would indicate a large spread of draft grades and rankings, even among the top 10 players. From the Texan perspective in 2014, their only issue is whether there are a few NFL teams who covet that first pick (whatever their reasons may be)... and how much to the Texans, themselves, want the guy rated #1 on their list.

In the end, though, we do not (and will not) know how NFL teams value these players... We may have some idea, but those conclusions are based on conjecture, leaked information without a named source, and a lot of misinformation by those same, anonymous people...

So, dealing with what we know for certain regarding the value of the first pick:

1. it will be more valued than before 2011 because of the significantly lower financial commitment.

2. the lower financial commitment broadens the range of player positions that can be selected with that pick.

3. The extension of the draft weekend into 3 days will enable the Texans to field offers for pick #33 for almost 24 hours instead of only 10 minutes- also, they can reorder their board and build a 2nd day strategy around that, and around prospective trades... All of that is objectively true. And, as was true in previous years, they will have that opportunity on the final day of the draft (4th round pick), which is also a good thing.
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Old 12-22-2013   #18
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Atlanta already has four wins. We cannot finish with 4 wins. The "best" we can do is 3 wins and tie with one other team, Washington. In that scenario, Houston and Washington (St. Louis 1st round) will alternate the first pick in each successive round. So we would get 2.1, 4.1, & 6.1.

If we lose to Tenn next week, we will be the only 2-win team, so we will have the first pick in every round. So to boil that down, no matter what, we will select first in the second, fourth, and sixth rounds. We can also pick first in the first, third, fifth, and seventh rounds by losing, otherwise we will pick second in those four rounds.

Last edited by CharloTex; 12-23-2013 at 12:35 AM.
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