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Old 11-28-2013   #1
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Default Baby's First Mock Draft

Well, more like 3rd or 4th, but my first posted here. Working on a few assumptions here:

-Kubiak and Wade are let go; Kubiak takes over Washington from the Shanahans and keeps RG3 from getting killed while Wade coaches the 3-4 in Cleveland as a DC.

-In turn, McNair (who retains Rick Smith) hires Ray Horton, currently Cleveland's DC, as the new head coach. Horton coaches the 3-4 and has a history of churning out great defenses, though the offense hasn't always kept it's side of the bargain. Horton grabs Hue Jackson out of Cincinnati to be his offensive coordinator.

-The only major re-sign of our free agents is Antonio Smith and Garrett Graham. We have no trades but do receive a compensatory 5th for Barwin.

With that out of the way, let's begin:

1st round: Jadaveon Clowney, DE - South Carolina

Has had a down year, but this athletic freak has produced and can elevate the defense with his mere presence; teams won't be able to double team him AND Watt every down, and that will make teams pay.

2nd round: Tajh Boyd, QB - Clemson

Houston goes back to South Carolina for its first two picks again, grabbing a talented QB who has a history with Hopkins. Other options here include Zach Mettenberger from LSU, grabbing Stephen Morris in the 3rd, or even trading it for Kirk Cousins (thanks Kubiak).

3rd round: James Hurst, Tackle - North Carolina

If Brennan Williams comes back from his surgery perfectly healthy, so much the better. In any case, more offensive line depth, especially from a school that is familiar with the offense we run already. Alternatively, we grab Shane Skov or BPA ILB and go offensive tackle in the 4th.

4th round: Arthur Lynch, TE - Georgia

TE depth after cutting Owen Daniels.

5th round: Andrew Jackson, ILB - Western Kentucky

BA linebacker at this point, might be a defensive back if we grabbed Skov.

5th round*: Andre Williams, RB - Boston College

Bit of a reach that he'll still be here, but if you haven't heard of Williams yet, you should. He recently broke the 2,000 yard barrier in just 11 games this year; he should help bolster a running back group after Tate leaves,

6th round: J.C. Copeland, FB - LSU

My alum pick, the shutdown fullback. Great for bending the occasional linebacker's facemask into something unrecognizable and 1-yard touchdown run. The next Vonta Leach. Just let me have this.

7th round: Jeffrey Whitaker, DT - Auburn

Defensive tackle depth found late.

Thoughts?
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Old 11-28-2013   #2
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhsman View Post
Well, more like 3rd or 4th, but my first posted here. Working on a few assumptions here:

-Kubiak and Wade are let go; Kubiak takes over Washington from the Shanahans and keeps RG3 from getting killed while Wade coaches the 3-4 in Cleveland as a DC.

-In turn, McNair (who retains Rick Smith) hires Ray Horton, currently Cleveland's DC, as the new head coach. Horton coaches the 3-4 and has a history of churning out great defenses, though the offense hasn't always kept it's side of the bargain. Horton grabs Hue Jackson out of Cincinnati to be his offensive coordinator.

-The only major re-sign of our free agents is Antonio Smith and Garrett Graham. We have no trades but do receive a compensatory 5th for Barwin.

With that out of the way, let's begin:

1st round: Jadaveon Clowney, DE - South Carolina

Has had a down year, but this athletic freak has produced and can elevate the defense with his mere presence; teams won't be able to double team him AND Watt every down, and that will make teams pay.

2nd round: Tajh Boyd, QB - Clemson

Houston goes back to South Carolina for its first two picks again, grabbing a talented QB who has a history with Hopkins. Other options here include Zach Mettenberger from LSU, grabbing Stephen Morris in the 3rd, or even trading it for Kirk Cousins (thanks Kubiak).

3rd round: James Hurst, Tackle - North Carolina

If Brennan Williams comes back from his surgery perfectly healthy, so much the better. In any case, more offensive line depth, especially from a school that is familiar with the offense we run already. Alternatively, we grab Shane Skov or BPA ILB and go offensive tackle in the 4th.

4th round: Arthur Lynch, TE - Georgia

TE depth after cutting Owen Daniels.

5th round: Andrew Jackson, ILB - Western Kentucky

BA linebacker at this point, might be a defensive back if we grabbed Skov.

5th round*: Andre Williams, RB - Boston College

Bit of a reach that he'll still be here, but if you haven't heard of Williams yet, you should. He recently broke the 2,000 yard barrier in just 11 games this year; he should help bolster a running back group after Tate leaves,

6th round: J.C. Copeland, FB - LSU

My alum pick, the shutdown fullback. Great for bending the occasional linebacker's facemask into something unrecognizable and 1-yard touchdown run. The next Vonta Leach. Just let me have this.

7th round: Jeffrey Whitaker, DT - Auburn

Defensive tackle depth found late.

Thoughts?
Ok, I am going to put baby in a corner. Seriously, here we go:

1. Clowney: too big a risk for me to draft first in draft. It does bother me the concerns about him giving up. Why would you pick any player first who is having a bad year? Is that not a red flag?

2. Boyd I could go with.
3. James Hurst I just don't like him but could be wrong. See him more of a project.

5. Really like Jackson as I'm big fan.
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Old 11-28-2013   #3
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

Picking in the SEC and ACC means they play fast . Something the Texans need badly .

I could live with Clowney based on the go big or go home theory .

I like Boyd , a 4 year starter .

Hurst ... ok

Lynch we could use

Andrew Jackson hasn't been the same since the Battle of New Orleans

I like Copeland .
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Old 11-28-2013   #4
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

Hey now, nobody puts baby in a corner! And I haven't even seen that movie!

Quote:
Originally Posted by badboy View Post
1. Clowney: too big a risk for me to draft first in draft. It does bother me the concerns about him giving up. Why would you pick any player first who is having a bad year? Is that not a red flag?
If you can find plays where he 'gives up' that don't involve him being double/triple teamed or having the play run right away from him, I'd love to see it. A combination of injuries and heightened national awareness of him has more likely done more to reduce his production this year than any questions of laziness.

Let's assume for a minute that Clowney does take plays off; he's still rightfully feared by a lot of offensive coordinators, and their focus on him has led to teammates in Kelcy Qarles and Chaz Sutton have been accumulating sacks due to the spotlight being drawn away. Having Clowney and Watt working together makes every other pass rusher on the team that much more dangerous.

Even then, I could even understand why Clowney would want to take it easy before the draft. He's twice seen his former teammate, Marcus Lattimore, go from a "The next ADP", surefire 1st-round pick to nearly having his career derailed by freak injuries and falling to the 4th. Bridgewater might have elite intangibles in his ability to read defenses, but as a prospect I don't see a wider gap between him and a 2nd-round QB than between Clowney and a 2nd-round DE/OLB.

Quote:
2. Boyd I could go with.
I'd actually prefer Mettenberger at this point, but Mettenberger seems to be playing himself back into the mid-late first at this point. If Boyd loses to South Carolina, he could be our guy in the second.

Quote:
3. James Hurst I just don't like him but could be wrong. See him more of a project.
I admit, I haven't done more research on him than "graded as 2-3rd round prospect, went to UNC so he knows the ZBS." If there are better options, feel free to list them.

Quote:
5. Really like Jackson as I'm big fan.
Same, though again it was a matter of BPA ILB at that point; I'd honestly like to get Skov, but I'd also think we could bring in a free agent like Daryl Smith or maybe even Poluzney.
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Old 11-30-2013   #5
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

As much as I like the work of horton,I would pass on a coach who needs to learn how to be a coach. I think we've been through enough growing pains with kubes and his 1st job. If it were me, I would call mike holmgren 1st to see if he wanted to coach. As much as I like cowher and his passion, I'm not sure about him away from the steelers structure. Holmgren on the other hand has been to the superbowl with 2 different teams. He's known to develop qbs and I like the fact he runs a version of wco. I know he's 65,but he's a lifer. Now on to the draft.

If the texans don't get the top pick, I have no problems with clowney. I personally think the texans will have the top pick. Even though I think marriotta needs seasoning ,I think the debate betweenhe and clowney has to be had. Between those 2 and the upside of both, clowney probably is the right choice. Clowney is probably the right choice because of who you drafted with the 2nd rd pick in Boyd.
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Old 12-06-2013   #6
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

New mock, post-Jags:

1st round: Jadaveon Clowney, DE - South Carolina
2nd round: Brandon Schefft, T - Iowa
3rd round: Zach Mettenberger, QB - LSU
4th round: Yawin Smallwood, ILB - Connecticut
5th round: Arthur Lynch, TE - Georgia
5th round: Andre Williams, RB - Boston College
6th round: Ricardo Allen, CB - Purdue
7th round: Beau Allen - DT, Wisconsin

As before, I'm assuming that we get Ray Horton as head coach, and he continues running the 3-4, while retaining Rick Smith as GM.

Clowney is our guy at 1-1. Put him next to Watt and we'll have a terror of a defensive line, but not without a few more additions, as you see.

Schefft probably doesn't make it out of the first round; he's been rising lately, but I think it's possible we snag him at #33. Fire Derek Newton (into the sun), put him at RT and Quessenberry at LG, and we have an offensive line that looks like this:

Brown - Quessenberry - Myers - Brooks - Scheff

That's a line that could either run ZBS or maybe transition to a power scheme, however the incoming offensive coordinator/HC wants to run it. I'm coming around to re-hiring Greg Knapp if we can't get Hue Jackson. Alex Gibbs might also be an option.

Mettenberger is a guy that will probably ruffle a few feathers, but hear me out: with Mariota (and probably Hundley) heading back to school, guys like Carr and Boyd will rise in the rounds while Mett and Murray drop due to their injuries. Mettenberger is a tall, tough, big-armed sunovabitch who was a leader of the LSU Tigers the last two years and showed improvement over the course of his career. In other words, he's exactly what Rick Smith looks for in a draft pick. Let him sit for a year, heal up, and learn the offense. Mobility was never his strong suit, so the ACL injury

If you want another take, give a look at this scouting report for an evaluation of his talent, and a roundtable discussion by the people who run SB Nation's LSU blog, And The Valley Shook, on Mett's leadership and how he progressed during his time at LSU.

In all honesty, I'm an LSU alum and would love to see Mett join the team. There's no other QB I've seen that made 3rd-and-long no big deal other than a few guys in the pros, but I'll refrain from that sort of name-dropping. If you don't like the pick, I understand, and would offer up Aaron Murray, Stephen Morris, or David Fales as an alternate.

Yawin Smallword is a guy that I'm mostly listing here due to measurables: six-foot-five and runs in the 4.65-4.75 range, and with a ton of tackles to show for it. I'll try and find some film, but he looked like a good fit for the round and need.

Arthur Lynch and Andre Williams I've already told you about.

Ricardo Allen is a four-year starter at Purdue (Rick Smith's alma mater, and even the same position) who has three INTs, 2 PDs and 4 TFLs on the who projects to be a slot corner. His speed would be an asset on special teams and would give us a guy to move on from Brice McCain, who has struggled this year.

Lastly, Beau Allen is a 325lb NT out out Wisconsin; Horton's defenses seem to prefer getting more sacks out of the OLBS (which shouldn't be a problem with Clowney and Mercilus along with Watt in the middle), so having a guy who projects as a great run-stuffer to sit in the middle seems to fit best. He could go as high as the 4th round, so having him here is a bit of a luxury pick.

Thoughts?
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Old 12-06-2013   #7
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

The problem with the theory of putting watt and clowney are this,the elite/high qbs just speed up their internal clocks. Hali and houston had 22 sacks going into the broncos game. Guess what? Peyton didn't even have to wash his uniform. How many times did watt and company disrupt brady this yr or last? I remember going into that game they were talking blocking watt. Well, it didn't matter because brady was getting rid of the ball at 2.12 seconds. So tell me,what can the texans do when guys are getting rid of it that quick?
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Old 12-06-2013   #8
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
As much as I like the work of horton,I would pass on a coach who needs to learn how to be a coach. I think we've been through enough growing pains with kubes and his 1st job. If it were me, I would call mike holmgren 1st to see if he wanted to coach. As much as I like cowher and his passion, I'm not sure about him away from the steelers structure. Holmgren on the other hand has been to the superbowl with 2 different teams. He's known to develop qbs and I like the fact he runs a version of wco. I know he's 65,but he's a lifer. Now on to the draft.

If the texans don't get the top pick, I have no problems with clowney. I personally think the texans will have the top pick. Even though I think marriotta needs seasoning ,I think the debate betweenhe and clowney has to be had. Between those 2 and the upside of both, clowney probably is the right choice. Clowney is probably the right choice because of who you drafted with the 2nd rd pick in Boyd.

That rules out alot of guys though...alot of good candidates.

Darell Bevell
Adam Gase
Mike Zimmer

I think you've got to be a bit more open than that.
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Old 12-06-2013   #9
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
As much as I like the work of horton,I would pass on a coach who needs to learn how to be a coach. I think we've been through enough growing pains with kubes and his 1st job. If it were me, I would call mike holmgren 1st to see if he wanted to coach. As much as I like cowher and his passion, I'm not sure about him away from the steelers structure. Holmgren on the other hand has been to the superbowl with 2 different teams. He's known to develop qbs and I like the fact he runs a version of wco. I know he's 65,but he's a lifer. Now on to the draft.

If the texans don't get the top pick, I have no problems with clowney. I personally think the texans will have the top pick. Even though I think marriotta needs seasoning ,I think the debate betweenhe and clowney has to be had. Between those 2 and the upside of both, clowney probably is the right choice. Clowney is probably the right choice because of who you drafted with the 2nd rd pick in Boyd.
I'm on board with this.

After Gary, no more learning on the job. The handling of timeouts at the end of the game last night shows me Gary really hasn't learned much in 8 yrs.

Hiring Holmgren means you dont have to worry about stuff like this. Holmgren should be the person to decide on the QB of the future. I do worry about how much fire he's got left at age 65 though.

Give me Holmgren or any other HC with winning experience. Although I do like Bevell I dont want him to be the next HC for the same reason I dont want Horton. 1st timers need not apply.
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Old 12-06-2013   #10
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

Your argument is that we should pass over a promising candidate for guys who were ultimately fired for their coaching. The only exception to this would probably be Lovie, but that's me.
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Old 12-06-2013   #11
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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
The problem with the theory of putting watt and clowney are this,the elite/high qbs just speed up their internal clocks. Hali and houston had 22 sacks going into the broncos game. Guess what? Peyton didn't even have to wash his uniform. How many times did watt and company disrupt brady this yr or last? I remember going into that game they were talking blocking watt. Well, it didn't matter because brady was getting rid of the ball at 2.12 seconds. So tell me,what can the texans do when guys are getting rid of it that quick?
Have the DBs play ON their guy and not give them 9 yard cushions. That's where I'd start.
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Old 12-06-2013   #12
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Have tge DBs play ON their guy and not give them 9 yard cushions. That's where I'd start.

Interesting you say that. I wrote a thread called the 3 layers of defense. I would argue lbs who can cover are just as important if not more than dbs in a sense. The lbs,both ilb and olb squeeze the windows on the qbs initial reads. That is one of the main reasons baltimore was able to not only deal with peyton but brady. Neither of these guys want to make a living throwing the ball downfield outside the numbers. Lewis even in his later years was still top notch reading windows. Closing or making those windows really tight make qbs come off that initial read and reset to go somewhere else. If you look a the best pass defenses,most if not all have really good cover lbs. Carolina has luke and davis,sf has bowman and will along with brooks. Seattle has kj wright and wagner. Middle field coverage is very,very important.
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Old 12-06-2013   #13
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

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Interesting you say that. I wrote a thread called the 3 layers of defense. I would argue lbs who can cover are just as important if not more than dbs in a sense. The lbs,both ilb and olb squeeze the windows on the qbs initial reads. That is one of the main reasons baltimore was able to not only deal with peyton but brady. Neither of these guys want to make a living throwing the ball downfield outside the numbers. Lewis even in his later years was still top notch reading windows. Closing or making those windows really tight make qbs come off that initial read and reset to go somewhere else. If you look a the best pass defenses,most if not all have really good cover lbs. Carolina has luke and davis,sf has bowman and will along with brooks. Seattle has kj wright and wagner. Middle field coverage is very,very important.
enter mosley!
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Old 12-06-2013   #14
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Default Re: Baby's First Mock Draft

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Interesting you say that. I wrote a thread called the 3 layers of defense. I would argue lbs who can cover are just as important if not more than dbs in a sense. The lbs,both ilb and olb squeeze the windows on the qbs initial reads. That is one of the main reasons baltimore was able to not only deal with peyton but brady. Neither of these guys want to make a living throwing the ball downfield outside the numbers. Lewis even in his later years was still top notch reading windows. Closing or making those windows really tight make qbs come off that initial read and reset to go somewhere else. If you look a the best pass defenses,most if not all have really good cover lbs. Carolina has luke and davis,sf has bowman and will along with brooks. Seattle has kj wright and wagner. Middle field coverage is very,very important.
No denying that. You need LBs that can fill that window quickly. I think getting the jam at the LOS is the key though. Brady/Manning know their guy will be there so they're throwing the ball early and hot. Ideally you'd want a good jam AND a LB to fill that space. Sadly, we do neither.
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