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Old 09-01-2013   #1
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Default After the draft...

So let's say that I had my draft, & I screwed it royally. Didn't get the players I wanted in the first 3 rounds, didn't get one of my top 3 QBs, didn't get any of the top 10 projected receivers.

Surely, not all is lost... right?

Some players are not going to do as well as projected. Some players are going to get hurt. Some players are going to surprise us all.

How do I decide who to cut, who to pick up? How active should I be on the waiver wire; both before the season starts & after? When do I cut bait on a player?
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Old 09-01-2013   #2
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Default Re: After the draft...

1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.

2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?

3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.

4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.

5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.

7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?

8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.

I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
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Old 09-01-2013   #3
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Default Re: After the draft...

For me in an 8 team league the first week of free agent add/drops is so important I don't mind losing my first game to get first in line for pickups.

First 2 weeks can make your season if you target the right players. Alfred Morris was not drafted in a lot of smaller leagues last year. He ended up being the #4 running back in our scoring system.
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Old 09-01-2013   #4
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Default Re: After the draft...

Tk is this the roster your concerned about? (Quote from the rate my draft thread.) Is it a ppr league? What's your scoring/waiver system look like?


Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 Def

I picked 8th in a snake draft. I don't remember exactly when I picked up the guys I did, but I ended up with

[ x ] Tony Romo - DAL

[ x ] C.J. Spiller - BUF
[ x ] Reggie Bush - DET
[ x ] Frank Gore - SF
[ x ] Mark Ingram - NO
[ x ] Rashard Mendenhall - ARI
[ x ] Ronnie Hillman - DEN

[ x ] Torrey Smith - BAL
[ x ] Antonio Brown - PIT
[ x ] Donnie Avery - KC
[ x ] Mike Wallace - MIA
[ x ] Tavon Austin - STL
[ x ] Kendall Wright - TEN
[ x ] Nick Toon - NO

[ x ] Justin Tucker - BAL

[ x ] Cincinnati Bengals - CIN
I know I was a bit biased against Romo in the other thread. I dont like him as a real life qb but for fantasy purposes he does post good stats.

On this roster my starters would be:

Qb Romo
Rb Spiller
Wr1 Wallace
Wr2 (Brown if ppr, Smith if non ppr)
Flex1 Bush
Flex2 Gore

Rbs: between mendy, ingram, and hillman one of them should emerge. My money would be on mendy to perform better then expected. Your talent here isn't great but it's not alarming either. All 3 have a questionable background but they also have potential.

Wrs: Wallace is a legit talent. Miami doesn't have a lot of bonafide options offensively. You should be ok here. He may not get more then 70 receptions for you but he is a playmaker and might just get you 10 td's. Antonio Brown and Torrey Smith are both unspectacular talents from a fantasy standpoint. Probably bottom end #2's. The good news is Wallace is in Miami and the steelers don't have a proven running game. Antonio will be their go to guy now. His numbers will be better then last year. Smith is a lot like Wallace in that he's a playmaker. You probably will not get a lot of receptions but he has fantastic td potential. You may get some goose eggs from him but when he goes off you'll be glad you were patient. Both brown and smith are young players who should be moving up (nearing their prime/potential) rather than down. As for the rest of your wr core I really like wright and austin because of their potential and playmaking ability. If you wait on both of them they might pay off big.

Toon and Avery are people i'd look to upgrade as is your kicker.

Cincy's defense should be solid. You've got a Zimmerman defense and 6 games in the north against unimpressive offenses (though there is rice and richardson.) In '12 they had the #8 scoring defense and i'd expect roughly the same this year. Not sure if the cats will use geo bernard as a return man but if they do you might just get a spike in special team scores.

Sifting through your players from a bye week pov you look to have trouble most in week 9. Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, Mendenhal, and Hillman all have a week 9 bye so plan for that if you can with some rb waiver additions before then...
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Old 09-01-2013   #5
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
Tk is this the roster your concerned about? (Quote from the rate my draft thread.) Is it a ppr league? What's your scoring/waiver system look like?

My scoring system is in that thread.. or in the FF First Round Strategy thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Passing Tds 3 points, 14 points for 4, 5 thereafter
Passing yards .1 every 2 yards, +3 for 300 yards
2 points for 2 point conversions

Rushing Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Rushing yards .1 each, +3 for 150
Rushing attempts 3 for every 25
2 points for 2 point conversions

Receiving Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Receiving yards .1 each, +3 for 120
Receptions +1 for 7, +1 thereafter
2 points for 2 point conversions
I appreciate the indepth review of my draft, but this thread wasn't just for me. I'm sure your first post helped a lot of people.

Nick Toon was my final pick. I've got a feeling about him & most likely won't let him go anytime soon. I want to see how things play out, but with Drew Brees throwing him the ball... who knows. Gotta see how things play out.

I could have & probably should have added a second kicker, QB, def, etc... but I decided to go with longshots....... Avery in Reed's system. But this "method" means I'm going to be active on the waiver wire.
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Old 09-01-2013   #6
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post

I could have & probably should have added a second kicker, QB, def, etc... but I decided to go with longshots.......
I would never draft 2 kickers or D/ST.
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Old 09-01-2013   #7
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.

2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?

3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.

4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.

5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.

7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?

8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.

I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
Great advice.

For me #1 is always the hardest.

A bad draft isn't the end of the world. However it does mean that you will have to study rosters harder for possible trades. You will also have to take more chances.

Example: Reggie Bush should have a really good yr. Say you've got Julio Jones/Garcon/AJ on you're roster, are you willing to take a chance and trade AJ for Bush. You may be willing to trade Garcon on the chance that Eddie Lacy becomes a stud.

You will need to take these chances now because a few games into the season it will be too late.

Hope everything works out for you.
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