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Old 08-22-2013   #1
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Default Arian Foster 3rd overall?

Hi guys, I've got the 3rd pick in my 0.5ppr league and I'm considering taking Foster.

However yahoo rankings just dropped him to 7. Is there something I should be worried about here? I know he's semi-injured but I'm not sure how serious.

Would I be better off taking Martin or McCoy or Spiller?
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Old 08-22-2013   #2
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by DFlo View Post
Hi guys, I've got the 3rd pick in my 0.5ppr league and I'm considering taking Foster.

However yahoo rankings just dropped him to 7. Is there something I should be worried about here? I know he's semi-injured but I'm not sure how serious.

Would I be better off taking Martin or McCoy or Spiller?
If I get a chance to take Arian, I'm taking him.

I'd be OK with the other guys although I wouldn't trust Spiller until I see a Bills offense that scores points.
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Old 08-22-2013   #3
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

The rankings are in flux a bit right now as Foster was dropped when his back problems/etc. persisted and it hit the news.

Now that he is back practicing I expect he'll be moved up. You'll see Martin ranked a slot above Foster typically and Spiller/McCoy at a similar level.

It's choose your poison!
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Old 08-22-2013   #4
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

If you only get 13 games from Foster, on a per game average he's generally the best player in fantasy.
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Old 08-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

I'd consider martin over foster but neither spiller or mccoy.

In a perfect world we get a chance to see foster play a few downs this week and wade smith(lg) comes back by game 1 healthy.

Sure foster's a year older, the line run blocking may not be quite as good, and ofcourse there's the injury concern, but you've got a couple of locks in your favor. Kubiak is stubborn and wont abandon the run -ever. Secondly, foster's biggest attribute is his vision. Even if he' a step slower he's going to get good gains.

Fosters '12 stats

1424 yards 15 rushing td's 40 receptions 217 receiving yards and 2 receiving td's

He will get monster opportunities. Go for it.
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Old 08-22-2013   #6
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

With .5 PPR Fosters 2012 lack of receptions will drop him slightly on draft boards, especially with his current back situation. It might also elevate a guy like Jamaal Charles due to Andy Reid's former offenses with Philly having the RBs get lots of receptions and yards.

Foster certainly isn't a bad option in PPR, but there are logical reasons behind his drop. Make no mistake though, the Texans will use the crap out of Foster while he's healthy. And the man is a bona fide TD machine.
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Old 08-22-2013   #7
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by b0ng View Post
With .5 PPR Fosters 2012 lack of receptions will drop him slightly on draft boards, especially with his current back situation. It might also elevate a guy like Jamaal Charles due to Andy Reid's former offenses with Philly having the RBs get lots of receptions and yards.

Foster certainly isn't a bad option in PPR, but there are logical reasons behind his drop. Make no mistake though, the Texans will use the crap out of Foster while he's healthy. And the man is a bona fide TD machine.
Good post bong. Charles is somebody I love in an andy reid offense.

I'd say 3-4 is about right for foster (ad, charles, foster/martin.) Next guys in line all have their own questions...

Rice should be legit but he hasnt had fosters production and will lose carries to pierce. Hes also older.

Richardson's had his own continuous injury issues. He doesn't have fosters track record. He has average talent around him which means defenses will key on him everydown.

McCoy is comming off a bad year. I like his ppr potential in a hurry up offense which should give him a lot of opportunities, but who's his qb? New offense. Minor injury concerns.

Spiller IS a breakout candidate. Big play potential on any touch. I had him last year and for a stretch he was amazing. But who's the bill's qb? New offense. Fred Jackson is still going to get carries.

I'm not sure I see anyone else in this range you can consider drafting ahead of foster. Morris has a limited history, has questionable receiving skills, and at the end of the day he's still a shanny rb. Not sure I trust him just yet. Calvin Johnson is a freak but stafford has to remain healthy for him to really prosper...reggie bush is going to get some of that workload and ofcourse taking a wr in round 1 means you will be desperate for rb talent later in the draft.

Foster seems a safe 1 thru 4 selection to me. Ultimately you often have to decide: do I take the guy comming off a great season who's consistent or the guy who's about to have his breakout year?
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Old 08-22-2013   #8
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

I have the 2nd pick and can't decide what to do. I worry about Foster's injury. I'm contemplating taking McCoy at 2. Chip Kelly runs a lot of plays and loves to run the ball; defenses are going to get tired in the 4th quarter facing his offense. McCoy also looks like he is primed for a great season. His cutbacks are even better than Foster, as difficult as that is to believe.
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Old 08-22-2013   #9
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

I'd go with spiller. I think he's going to have a big season.
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Old 08-22-2013   #10
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
I'd go with spiller. I think he's going to have a big season.
That's how I feel about McCoy; he is going to be great this year. Spiller's always played injured and it limits him. When he was at Clemson, dude was always limping off some injury. He's about as risky as Foster right now, in my opinion anyway.
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Old 08-22-2013   #11
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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I'd go with spiller. I think he's going to have a big season.
Purely out of curiosity Rey how do you think the new coaching staff will handle fred jackson? I'm having a hard time making up my mind on the issue. Just a season and a half ago fred had top 2-3 rb production for a stretch. Last year Jackson was my 3rd round pick and I snagged spiller as a handcuff which worked out great after mid season. Is Jackson now an after thought?
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Old 08-23-2013   #12
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
I have the 2nd pick and can't decide what to do. I worry about Foster's injury. I'm contemplating taking McCoy at 2. Chip Kelly runs a lot of plays and loves to run the ball; defenses are going to get tired in the 4th quarter facing his offense. McCoy also looks like he is primed for a great season. His cutbacks are even better than Foster, as difficult as that is to believe.
I'm in the same boat. I've gone from Martin, to Foster, Spiller, McCoy. PPR and roster set up is important so keep that in mind, this is for my 10 team 0 ppr 6pt TD pass/rush/rec league with a standard roster set up.

Charles had a foot issue
Foster has his back problem
Martin had a concussion
Spiller has been known to be fragile before
McCoy is unknown cause of the coaching change (but he looks legit this preseason)

It's a tough spot kind of because your next pick is not going to be for awhile and if you whiff on #1 you might screw yourself.
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Old 08-23-2013   #13
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by b0ng View Post
I'm in the same boat. I've gone from Martin, to Foster, Spiller, McCoy. PPR and roster set up is important so keep that in mind, this is for my 10 team 0 ppr 6pt TD pass/rush/rec league with a standard roster set up.

Charles had a foot issue
Foster has his back problem
Martin had a concussion
Spiller has been known to be fragile before
McCoy is unknown cause of the coaching change (but he looks legit this preseason)

It's a tough spot kind of because your next pick is not going to be for awhile and if you whiff on #1 you might screw yourself.
Yeah, Foster's injury has made it difficult. I could trade all my selections for the 6th pick and all of that slots corresponding selections, because another guy in my league wants McCoy. I may end up doing that.
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Old 08-23-2013   #14
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

I traded out of 2nd pick and into 6th. Too much uncertainty.
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Old 08-23-2013   #15
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

I've had Martin at number 2 since before the talk of Arian's back. The kid almost broke 2,000 yards receiving/rushing in his rookie season. He's getting offensive lineman back healthy and I think He'll be a beast this year. Also at 5'9 215 he's built like Ladanian Tomlinson.

Foster scares the hell out of me. Huge workload 3 years in a row now, not to mention 4 playoff games in the last 2. Reading docs breakdown on his injury doesn't sound very promising.

The coaches in Buffalo are going to ride Spiller til the wheels fall off but at 5'11 195 that could be sooner rather than later. He could be the best RB in the league or he could fight injuries all year but that's FF for you.

Everybody but AD and imo Martin have huge question marks this season so it's almost like throwing a dart. I'm very risk adverse in the first round so I took Lynch 5th overall. Obviously anybody can get injured but I feel like I know what I am getting with him moreso than with Charles/Mccoy/Spiller/etc.
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Old 08-24-2013   #16
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by dc_txtech View Post
I've had Martin at number 2 since before the talk of Arian's back. The kid almost broke 2,000 yards receiving/rushing in his rookie season. He's getting offensive lineman back healthy and I think He'll be a beast this year. Also at 5'9 215 he's built like Ladanian Tomlinson.

Foster scares the hell out of me. Huge workload 3 years in a row now, not to mention 4 playoff games in the last 2. Reading docs breakdown on his injury doesn't sound very promising.

The coaches in Buffalo are going to ride Spiller til the wheels fall off but at 5'11 195 that could be sooner rather than later. He could be the best RB in the league or he could fight injuries all year but that's FF for you.

Everybody but AD and imo Martin have huge question marks this season so it's almost like throwing a dart. I'm very risk adverse in the first round so I took Lynch 5th overall. Obviously anybody can get injured but I feel like I know what I am getting with him moreso than with Charles/Mccoy/Spiller/etc.
Doc's analysis area almost always pessimistic in their presentation. Pretty sure Foster is probably going to be fine for the season and get his TD's.
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Old 08-24-2013   #17
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

CJ Spiller appeared to injure his right knee in the Bills' third preseason game.
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Old 08-24-2013   #18
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
CJ Spiller appeared to injure his right knee in the Bills' third preseason game.
He came back into the game
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Old 08-24-2013   #19
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

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Doc's analysis area almost always pessimistic in their presentation. Pretty sure Foster is probably going to be fine for the season and get his TD's.
That's a very well worded point and I agree. I also am pretty sure Foster is probably going to be fine for the season, just not as sure as I am about a couple other guys.
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Old 08-25-2013   #20
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Default Re: Arian Foster 3rd overall?

So the overall consensus from you Texans fans is that Foster is still a top 3 back? And that his injury shouldn't be a problem?

As far as the Spiller questions - I'm a Bills fan so I can answer those for you. Last year it was Freddy's backfield until CJ took over. Once they were both healthy and CJ took over it was about a 60-40 split. Gailey never really let CJ be the bellcow and rightfully so.

I think CJ will get injured sooner or later this season. The last two preseason games he's limped off after taking a hit. Usually after running the ball 3-4 times in a row. They're also going no huddle this year on offense, so a fatigued undersized back getting run into the ground is a bad recipe. If he stays healthy, he is probably the #1 pick, he's going to get crazy touches. Either way, if you take Spiller, take Freddy too.

That being said, if Foster and AP are gone, I'm probably taking CJ because it would make Bills games that much more interesting for me
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